Episode 318: Behavioural Risk with Simon Keslake
Coordinated and Produced by Elisa Garbil
In this episode Dominic Bowen speaks with Simon Keslaké, co-founder of Behavioural Risk Intelligence, about why organisational failure is so often driven by behaviour rather than systems or policies. They explore what behavioural risk really means, how it differs from traditional risk management, and why leadership signals, incentives, and team dynamics matter more than formal governance. Using real-world examples Simon explains how behavioural vulnerabilities can be identified and predicted before failure occurs. In addition, the episode also examines cultural differences, the limits of bureaucracy, and how organisations are increasingly shaping, not just responding to, geopolitical risk.
Simon Keslake is the Co-Founder and Behavioural Architect of Behavioural Risk Intelligence® (BRI). His focus is on redefining how organisations measure, understand, and manage the most complex human risks – those originating across leadership teams.
The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.
The International Risk Podcast is sponsored by Conducttr, a realistic crisis exercise platform. Conducttr offers crisis exercising software for corporates, consultants, humanitarian, and defence & security clients. Visit Conducttr to learn more.
Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.
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Transcript:
Elisa Garbil: Welcome back to the International Risk Podcast, where we discuss the latest world news and significant events that impact businesses and organisations worldwide.
Dominic Bowen: Hi — I have one question before we dive into today’s episode. If this podcast helps you make sense of geopolitics, security, and the risks that affect all of us, please hit follow or subscribe.
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And a quick shout-out to our sponsor, Conductor. Most organisations say they exercise their crisis management plans, but what they actually do is review a slide deck and have a polite conversation around it.
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So if you find yourself asking why people are making your risk framework fail, it probably isn’t because you’re missing another policy. It might be failing because people have learned which rules don’t matter within your organisation, which corners can be cut, or which truths get punished for being said out loud in the office.
I’m Dominic Bowen, host of the International Risk Podcast. Today we’re talking about behavioural risk — the hidden architecture of organisational failure and success. We’re going to explore the incentives that encourage the wrong behaviour, the cultures that punish bad news, and the leadership signals that tell people what an organisation really cares about.
My guest today is Simon Keslaké. He’s a UK-based behavioural risk specialist and co-founder of Behavioural Risk Intelligence, a firm that focuses on quantifying how leadership behaviour affects organisational risk and resilience.
Simon, welcome to the International Risk Podcast.
Simon Keslaké: Dominic, thanks very much. Great to be here.
Dominic Bowen: Simon, where in the world are you today?
Simon Keslaké: Just south of London, UK — and obviously, being in the UK, it’s raining.
Dominic Bowen: Well, at least you’re not in Scandinavia, where it’s snowing.
Simon Keslaké: OK.
Dominic Bowen: I think you’ve got one up on me already. Small mercies.
Simon Keslaké: Exactly. We take them where we can get them.
Dominic Bowen: Simon, I’d love to hear more about your work. It’s a really cool title — Behavioural Risk Intelligence. I think I need to work out how I can get that as a line on my CV.
Maybe you can start by telling us: what is behavioural risk intelligence? You and I were discussing this earlier, and we both know it’s increasingly relevant in a world shaped by geopolitics, instability, economic fragmentation, and technological change.
Why is it important, and what does it actually mean?
Simon Keslaké: I love behavioural risk. For me, very simply, it’s the predictive science underpinning the human engine of why organisations succeed and why they ultimately fail.
If I expand on that a little, we look at the causal relationships between behaviour — personality profiles, the way teams interact — and we’ve identified what we call failure pathways. These link particular behavioural risks and personality profiles through to very specific organisational failures.
Dominic Bowen: Those failure pathways are something we’ll definitely come back to. But staying at the macro level for a moment, especially when we’re thinking about global organisations operating across jurisdictions, conflicting regulations, political pressures, and cultural norms — how does behavioural risk differ from traditional operational risk management or compliance?
Simon Keslaké: Traditionally, most frameworks focus on the what: what are we going to do?
Behavioural risk focuses on the why. Why does the risk occur in the first place? Why are people bypassing the structures and systems we have in place? Why are people making decisions that go wrong?
We all address the what. We can see it and measure it — it’s visible. But the real question is: why is it happening? Why do two organisations with the same people, the same frameworks, the same structures and systems end up with completely different outcomes? Why does one fail while the other succeeds?
That’s what we try to understand. We strip out the noise and focus purely on the behavioural side.
Dominic Bowen: So what are the top behaviours, or failure pathways, that you see most often?
Simon Keslaké: There are five big risks that we measure.
First, decision risk — how people make decisions in a particular environment, especially under geopolitical pressure.
Second, adoption risk — how organisations respond to major changes in markets, products, or technology, and how they implement those changes.
Third, relationship risk — how individuals within a team operate and work together.
Fourth, response risk — how teams respond to serious disruption and immediate crises.
And finally, conduct risk, which is particularly relevant in investment and financial environments.
Ultimately, there’s a combination of behaviours that sit behind all five of these risks.
Dominic Bowen: Is there something that sits underneath those five risks — a foundation?
Simon Keslaké: Yes. Within those five risks are what we call 15 behavioural vulnerabilities. These are specific behavioural traits that we measure.
When combined in particular patterns, they form what I call the interaction signature of a team. We then compare that team against sector-specific baseline data — automotive, aerospace, government, FMCG — so it’s a fair comparison.
We’re not just saying, “You’re risky.” We’re saying that based on your behavioural profile, there’s a high, medium, or low likelihood of a specific failure occurring in your organisation.
Dominic Bowen: Many of us have completed psychometric assessments — hundreds of questions, interviews with psychologists. Is this similar, but at a team level?
Simon Keslaké: Not exactly. We don’t focus on individuals. For us, the atomic unit of performance and value in an organisation is the team.
Teams make decisions. Even when a chief executive makes the final call, that decision has passed through multiple layers of team interaction.
So we measure teams: how they come together, how they interact, how they operate. That allows us to build a heat map of the organisation — behavioural nodes across teams — and assess where future risk is most likely to emerge.
Dominic Bowen: I’d genuinely love to see that done on my own team. It sounds incredibly valuable.
Simon Keslaké: And that’s the key difference. We don’t label individuals. Everything is aggregated through the model. We use psychometric instruments as inputs, but the analytics focus on patterns, not people.
Dominic Bowen: How does this work in matrix organisations, or in crisis teams that don’t work together day-to-day?
Simon Keslaké: It works in exactly the same way. Individuals complete the questionnaire, and the data is analysed at the team level — even for virtual or temporary teams.
We also look at team tenure. Teams that have been together too long, or not long enough, can moderate behavioural risk differently.
Dominic Bowen: I’m based in Sweden today, I’ll be in Denmark, Ukraine, and India over the coming weeks — very different cultures. Malcolm Gladwell talks about how cultural differences shape success and failure. How does culture factor into your work?
Simon Keslaké: It’s extremely important. At the moment, our data is primarily from Western contexts — the UK, Europe, the US, Australia — and it’s sector-specific.
Our data is longitudinal and causal, drawn from tens of thousands of data points collected over decades. That’s why we’re confident in it, but also careful about cultural limitations.
Dominic Bowen: Could you apply this methodology to non-client teams, such as political leadership teams?
Simon Keslaké: Only if they completed the questionnaires. Visible behaviour doesn’t always reflect underlying pathology. The data reveals motivation.
Dominic Bowen: Getting Donald Trump to answer a questionnaire might be challenging.
Simon Keslaké: Indeed.
The critical difference in our work is that we focus on causality, not correlation. Most psychometrics rely on correlation. We link behaviour directly to outcomes.
Dominic Bowen: That distinction really matters.
Simon, where do organisations cross the line from performance pressure into normalised deviance?
Simon Keslaké: Boeing is a classic example. They had extensive systems and controls, yet failure still occurred.
Signals from leadership matter. If bypassing rules is tolerated at the top, behaviour shifts throughout the organisation. Mapping those behavioural dark zones helps identify where failure is most likely.
Dominic Bowen: Incentives matter more than values posters.
Simon Keslaké: Exactly. Policies don’t stop behaviour — incentives shape it.
Dominic Bowen: We see this repeatedly in both government and corporate failures.
Simon Keslaké: The UK Post Office scandal is a tragic example. Systems were blamed, individuals were punished, but behaviour — avoidance, denial, protection of silos — was the real cause.
Dominic Bowen: Even strong governance frameworks fail.
Simon Keslaké: Ultimately, it always comes back to behaviour — how teams make decisions under pressure.
Dominic Bowen: Not all good leaders make good crisis leaders.
Simon Keslaké: Exactly. Dashboards show the past. Crises reveal behaviour under uncertainty.
Dominic Bowen: Looking forward, how will behavioural risk intelligence shape governance and leadership?
Simon Keslaké: Organisations can’t keep adding bureaucracy. In a volatile world, rapid, adaptive decision-making matters more.
Organisations now shape geopolitical risk as much as governments do. Understanding behavioural causality allows us to intervene where it matters before failure cascades.
Dominic Bowen: Who resists this work?
Simon Keslaké: People fear individual blame. That’s why we focus on teams. Great individuals don’t always make great teams — sport proves that.
Dominic Bowen: Final question: what international risks concern you most?
Simon Keslaké: Shifting political alliances and fragmentation within the Western bloc. Organisations adapting values to politics. We’ll see much more of this in the coming years.
Dominic Bowen: Simon, thank you very much for joining us.
Simon Keslaké: Thank you. I really enjoyed it.
Dominic Bowen: That was Simon Keslaké, co-founder of Behavioural Risk Intelligence. Please subscribe to our newsletter via the International Risk Podcast website. This episode was produced and coordinated by Elisa Garbil.
I’m Dominic Bowen. Thanks very much for listening.
Elisa Garbil: Thank you for listening to this episode of the International Risk Podcast. For more episodes and articles, visit internationalriskpodcast.com. Follow us on LinkedIn, Bluesky, and Instagram. See you next time.
