Episode 329: Inside the War in Ukraine: Strategy, Technology and the Future of Security with Elizabeth Bullock

This episode with Elizabeth Bullock examines the lived reality of modern conflict in Ukraine, drawing on her three years providing frontline humanitarian aid. From evacuating civilians under fire to navigating the evolving threats of drones, hypersonic missiles, and weaponised infrastructure, Elizabeth provides an unflinching look at how war shapes both society and strategy and what it reveals about the future of global security.

The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.

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Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.

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Transcript

Elizabeth Bullock:  Russia is trying to divide our societies from within. They are trying to polarize us. They are trying to have us focused on anything but the threat from Russia.

Intro: Welcome back to the International Risk Podcast, where we discuss the latest world news and significant events that impact businesses and organizations worldwide. Today’s episode is sponsored by conductor. There are crisis exercising software that’s built for corporates, consultants, humanitarian teams, and defense and security organization. It lets you build realistic exercises. Fast using its intuitive scenario, editor and ready to made content. I’ve used Conductor and I can testify that if you use PowerPoint or Excel still, well, it’s time to start looking at Conductor. If you want your teams to be genuinely ready for the next crisis, the conductor is certainly worth a look. And before we start today. I have a quick favor to ask you. If you listen to the International Risk Podcast and you find it useful, please follow and subscribe wherever you are watching and listening today in return, my commitment to you is simple that every week we’ll keep raising the bar with better guests, sharper questions, and more practical takeaways for you that you can use to make better decisions. And if there’s someone that you want on the show, tell me. We read all of your comments and we act on them. Let’s get onto the show.

Dominic Bowen: Today’s episode goes beyond the headlines of the war in Ukraine, to examine what modern conflict actually looks like on the ground from frontline evacuations to the realities of advanced military technologies. Today we’re gonna explore how war is fought, how civilians survive it, and what it means. For the future of global security, I’m Dominic Bowen and I’m host of the International West Podcast where we discuss the topics that really matter. And today we are joined by Elizabeth Bullock. Elizabeth spent three years working full-time in the frontline areas of Ukraine after leaving her career in technology just days after the full scale invasion. And today I’m really excited about exploring what is the live reality of modern conflict and war and how does technology impact it? Where does. Tactics combined with the technology of today and what does it look like on the ground and what this might reveal about the future of modern warfare and and what are the important considerations that we all need to understand. Elizabeth, welcome to the Internationalist Podcast.

Elizabeth Bullock: Thank you so much, Dominic. It’s a pleasure to be on here

Dominic Bowen: Now, and I understand it just a few days after Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine. You left your great job. You had a great job, a great life, and. You picked it all up and you started providing humanitarian assistance, emergency aid in Ukraine. Can you tell us what made you take that first step?

Elizabeth Bullock Well, I, I was actually fortunate I wasn’t in a full-time role at that time. I had actually just returned to the UK three days before the full-scale invasion from traveling in the Middle East for four months. So I was free to go in a way that many people were not, and I, like everyone else, was just horrified by what I saw in the news and felt I should just do something however small. And I packed my hatchback with winter supplies and drove over, and I just thought it’d be a few weeks driving women, children, elderly people across the border from La Viv into Poland, but it did progress quite quickly from there, that was, as it turned out, just the first two, three weeks of my time there. I quite quickly met some other British people like me, normal people, and we started running medical supplies in Kyiv when the Russians were trying to take it unsuccessfully, I’m happy to say. And from there, by mid-April, we were in the Don Bass as someone who became a wonderful Ukrainian friend, asked us if we would evacuate people. Out a town called Li before it fell, and these were people who could not escape the Russian advance. So bedridden, disabled, amputees, people without a car, people who would be trapped. And again, that was nothing that I ever intended doing, and it wasn’t a decision I took lightly. And I, I, I felt it was very important not to be a foreigner running around doing irresponsible things in Ukraine and, and, and the implications that has for Ukrainian people and, and particularly Ukrainian soldiers who are operating in that theater. So it, it was a measured decision, but yes, I would say an unexpected one. It’s interesting.

Dominic Bowen: I’m glad you called yourself a, a, a normal person. I, I think for, for most of my career, I think I’ve worked in all of the major war zones over the last 20 years, and I think generally the labels of, um, the, the missionary misfits or, or mercenary have, have generally been applied. So I’m glad that you didn’t fit into any of those when, when you were there. But three years is a, is a long time to spend in, in any conflict zone and, and anywhere affected by some sort of disaster. In this case, Russia’s illegal invasion. Can you tell us how the war changed, uh, during your, your time there and, and I think the country really has changed. I, I was blessed to be there, uh, in January and February just before Russia’s invasion. And, you know, I’m really just, you know, it really was a blessing to be able to, to see cities like Abdi, Kira, and Pol that have been now destroyed and, and taken over by Russia. But even in Kyiv and, and iv, you know, the countries from what I’ve seen, has gone through a really amazing transformation and such resilience. But, but what did you see during your work? How did the country change over the last three years?

Elizabeth Bowen: It was so impressive to see how quickly Ukraine adapted and, you know, in early 22, of course there was, there was huge amount of fear. There was mass movement of people, there was huge disruption to supply chains. I remember in spring 22, being in supermarkets, in CROs, and, and all of the shelves being bare. And a little bit like during COVID, but much more extreme. But within a few weeks it was all back. You know, 1 example that that I loved of this was, and, and I won’t, I won’t go into the depth of this now, but the, the time that, that we were the closest to losing our lives. We had seven s 300 missiles come in on us in mic alive in Mola in summer of 22. So not when we were living there. It was when the Russians were trying to take the city and they were occupying a huge amount of territory So they were trying to take the city and it was being very heavily hit just by misfortune, even though we were only there for I think, five days at that point. We happened to be there for the heaviest night that we ever experienced during the course of the war. We had these hits coming in between 5:00 AM and 5:30 AM in the morning when it finished, you know, we sort of bunkered down for a moment and then we drove two of our friends to hospital. They had minor injuries in their feet from all the glass on the floor. But we were very lucky. No one was seriously hurt when we got back from the hospital, call it by 8:00 AM there were already Ukrainian people out measuring the windows to replace the glass and just getting on with it, and that was such a wonderful. If you’ll excuse my language, you know, screw you to the Russians, it, it would be one of my favourite things in the city, which was, for those who aren’t familiar, which I’m sure many of your listeners are, it was the major battle of 2022. And um, sadly it is now under Russian occupation. And that was the area where we spent most of our time working during 2022 evacuating people. So we were seeing, seeing the city get progressively more destroyed, and yet. In the mornings when we’d be driving in to sort of go and evacuate people. And, you know, you’re trying to be fast. You know, the, the easiest way to stay alive is to move fast and do your job and get out. But we see people sweeping the streets and pruning the roses and taking that pride in their home city and not letting the Russians destroy that. Resilience is a word that’s bandied around a lot with reference to Ukraine and. Hugely justly. So, but it is also their choice to do these small acts of bravery. A lot of it is also not their choice. And I’ve also spoken to Ukrainian people who’ve actually found it a little bit difficult that you get UK Ukraine’s allies talking about Ukrainian resilience as if it’s almost a given. When they don’t have a choice and they have to keep going every day because they have to be all right for their family members or for their children, or they just have to keep going. They, they don’t have that issue of that choice. To a point about how it changed, I mean, of course the theatre and the way that things were in 22, hugely different to how they are now. We were evacuating people up to one kilometres, sometimes to the Russians. Obviously now in the age of drones, that could never happen. So it changed of course, from having. Reconnaissance drone, and then you might be worried about an artillery hit being called in to sort of a greater prevalence of reconnaissance, FPV drones. And then of course, the place we are now with very high prevalence of armed kamikaze style drones. And indeed what’s known as the human safari and Russia, for example, it’s been reported, sends its train drone pilots to the South Bank of the Nepro. Opposite Hassan City and tells them to train themselves by hunting Ukrainian civilians in the city. So that, of course, has changed hugely. I mean, with the rest of it, you, you, you, you of course have the frontline area where the risks are, of course artillery and now also FPV drones and you know, rocket systems that are more in range, et cetera. But you sort of know where that is for the rest of the country. You can be just as safe in a small village. In Eastern Ukraine, if you are outta drone, if you’re out of, out of FPV drone range, as you are in a village in western Ukraine, because of course for the whole rest of the country, and it is the biggest country in Europe, you have the major cities being struck. You have energy infrastructure being struck. But if you’re in a nondescript village, it’s really matter where you are. So for the last year we were there, we were doing reconstruction, and it was really odd because we. We were renting a house in Micala, and it was the first time we were safer where we worked than where we lived because of course, the city of Micala was getting hit a lot more than a random village in the middle of nowhere. Even though being in the village, of course, has its other risks, because you have mines, you have unexploded ordinance, occasionally you have. Ukrainian air defense batteries posted nearby, which are of course a valuable asset to potentially become a target. So it, it’s a, it’s, it’s a different thing. And of course, the entire growth of Shahe Jones happened during our time there. I remember when it first started to be a thing, it wasn’t a thing in 2022. And I remember that feeling of vulnerability in 23 of hearing them coming. And what, what was horrible about them in particular was that. Just by chance, they sound just like the engine of a moped. And we happen to live right near a main road where there will be a lot of mopeds. So you’d hear this and your brain and it’s, it’s funny, you know, we’d hear them a lot. So normally with most sounds, you get pretty good identifying, you know, is it incoming or outgoing artillery or is it this kind of thing or that kind of thing. None of us could ever crack that. It was too similar. So you are lying there in your pyjamas at night with your dog there and you don’t know if it’s a moped and you don’t know if it’s a shaheed. And in Aya we were under one of the major Shaheed flight paths for Shaheed drones that were being launched from Crimea to then head to Western Ukraine.

Dominic Bowen: Yeah, I mean you mentioned that the S 300, you mentioned that Shaheed, I mean, uh, I was in Kyiv in November and that was when they sent 430 drones to the capitol along with a lot of ballistic missiles. And it was. It was just, just phenomenal the sort of the number and before they, before they reached Kiv, you know, you, as you know, there’s all the apps and telegram channels that, that talk about what’s coming, you know, and it talked about hundreds of drones heading towards Kiv and it’s that, and then of course, you know, you can hear them and then you see the Ukrainian response to that. But it was quite interesting and I, and I, I liked how you said that, you know Ukraine, to get on with it, the next morning we had to be out and up to work and we’re on the streets by about seven 30. And I had two phones with two different carriers deliberately trying to do navigation. I had my electronic watch and everything was useless. Um, my phones, the navigation, the Ukrainians were obviously still working with their, their electronic warfare. As we were sort of pulling out of the hotel and you know, I was madly trying to, you know, plan the roots. We stopped for a young kid and it was about the age of my son and just crossing the road completely oblivious to the traffic, completely oblivious as to what happened home before. Just, he was obviously playing a game in his head with, I don’t know who or what, but he was having a ball with his life and it was sort of a bit of a giggle moment heading to high school and life was just going on as usual, you know? And if you didn’t have the problems on your navigation devices and on your watches. You wouldn’t realize what had happened the night before. That determination to, yeah, we’re going to go to school, we’re going to make sure our streets are taken care of, and, you know, society keeps functioning, was just something that always impresses me. But, you know, the, the Russian military technology from the S3 hundreds from the hypersonic missiles that we’ve heard more about, and some of these have been talked about as, as game changers, but I’m, I’m not sure that they really are. When we look at how much territory’s being taken. Then of course Ukraine’s response to Russia and Russia is a very advanced technology, uh, and technological power globally. What are your thoughts about the experiences and the realities of the technology that you saw and how different weapons are being employed in Ukraine?

Elizabeth Bullock: Well, that’s a really good point that you make about missiles, Dominic, and I’d, I’d love to, to dwell on that for a moment, if I may. In particular with regards to the Nik missile. Now there has been a lot of coverage about that in the press, and this has been a deliberate tactic of Russia’s to try and, and strike fear into the hearts and minds of European people. And there are just a few things very key that I would like to debunk, but also some valid threats that I would like to highlight because this is. A capable weapon system, but not for the reasons that it is being covered. The first thing to dispel is the idea that this is a new weapon system. Russia is trying to tote it as this new capability, technologically advanced, all of these things. It’s actually a cannibalized version of the RS 26. Which they have simply reduced the size. For those who are familiar with rocket terminology, they’ve reduced it from a three stage to a two stage, and it is slightly smaller. It has a slightly smaller circumference, but they have cannibalized many things from that. It is not a new system. The second piece is the fact that it is described as a hypersonic weapon. Every single ballistic weapon by definition is hypersonic. And always have been, including the very first one, the Nazi Germany, designed during World War ii. So describing a ballistic weapon as hypersonic is purely to try and induce panic. And again, to try and describe it is new. What it’s actually referring to is it is, it is a cruise missile traveling at hypersonic speed. What that means is that rather than it following a ballistic trajectory, which is linear, easier to predict, and therefore easier to intercept, it is following a cruise trajectory, which is low altitude. And hard to predict. And it can manoeuvre at hypersonic speed, which means it is very difficult to intercept. It travels at approximately three and a half thousand meters per second. It is fast, and for those who are familiar, that’s about Macan, but ICBMs into into the continental ballistic missiles travel at double that speed. So this is not faster than. The world is already familiar with and the world is already trying to protect itself against it is nothing revolutionary. It is fast granted, but not a course for panic. Now what are the genuine, valid threats around this? So yes, it is hard to intercept. Really that is not so much because of its speed. Its speed is a contributing factor, but not the main factor. What makes it difficult to intercept is the fact that these missiles are designed to. Dispense separate components. So in pure layman’s terms, when it is a very high altitude above the atmosphere, it is a single missile in one piece. The issue is that that altitude is too high for a defense to be able to take it down. When it gets to a lower altitude, it separates first into six vehicles. For those who have familiar, Merv, multiple independent re-entry vehicles. Each one of them then also splits into six, six subs. So you have, you go from a single missile to six Mirvs to 36 submunitions. So it is not impossible, but it is of course very challenging for air defense systems to take out that number of targets that are arriving simultaneously. Yes, at a high speed, that is a genuine risk. The other piece. Is around what the missile is loaded with. Now, it is first and foremost a nuclear designed weapon. We are all hoping, of course, that it will not be deployed in that way, but it is nuclear tape capable and that is a threat, but it isn’t the only threat. So the way it was reported when it was used, and it’s only been used twice so far. Is that it was used, uh, it was deployed using dummy warheads. Everyone was saying dummy warheads, limited damage. It’s a purely political statement by Russia to try and intimidate. That actually wasn’t accurate. Just because they were not nuclear did not mean they were dummy. They were not. Very heavy tungsten muscle in one of the instances, and when they struck Nipro, they apparently also had it laced with thermite, so it did have a slight incendiary element to it. This was not a harmless dummy set of warheads being fired down. A purely political statement because it was the right choice of weapon for the targets because a purely kinetic weapon in that way. Is much more effective at destroying underground targets than a more conventional, high explosive warhead. And what about the, uh, technologies that aren’t being discussed or the tactics that aren’t being discussed as a, as a humanitarian worker or civilians, that they feel they’re feeling the impact of many of these? You touched on landmines a couple of times. Are there things that, that we should be talking about more in Europe, especially as, you know, NATO defense spending is increasing. The Nordic countries alone. We’ll be spending another 34 billion by 2020 by 2034, you know? So what are the things that we should be talking about when it comes to Russian technologies, Russian tactics, uh, and their, their war machinery? So, as far as I see it, priorities for Europe, first and foremost, critical national infrastructure. Russia is not going to start dropping missiles on London or Paris or Berlin. We are a good ways off that situation. We are not, however, off a situation where Russia, which it already is, will attack our civilian population. And this is what I lived through in Ukraine, seen the very real implications of that. So when you have no fresh water, when you have no power, and, and people. Sort of know this from the news. They know there’ve been a huge amount of attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, for example. And things are particularly bad in Kyiv this winter, and Russia has really weaponized that winter. But it ex being extended over a huge amount of time has been used as a weapon to try and destroy Ukrainian resilience as we were talking about. But for summer in Western Europe, if suddenly. Somewhere in the UK or somewhere in France, or somewhere in Germany or Poland. Suddenly there’s a crisis, a civilian based crisis, where suddenly the water is gone, or suddenly the undersea cable is gone, or suddenly no one can do any financial transactions. Then things very quickly fall apart because we do not have the mechanisms in place to protect ourselves from these things in the first place, and then to recover from them in a way that is. Quick and without it having very significant impact. So the entire piece around protection of our critical national infrastructure is absolutely key. And it’s difficult because these are often either government institutions or private companies that may be very large, they may be quite antiquated. They probably cannot protect themselves from cyber attacks. Hugely, hugely vulnerable. Even the landing stations of subsea cables. You know, we all, I think we’re all quite familiar now with the concept of Russian ships dragging anchors and potentially destroying our subsea cables, although I don’t think people necessarily fully grasp quite how horrific the implications would be. But of course, those subsea cables do at some point have to pop up on land and those points where they go up onto the coast and you have these huge bundles. Of undersea cables right there that are often not protected at all is terrifying. The only thing that’s that’s different between me and anyone else in the UK, for example, is that I’ve seen what Russia is willing to do. People starting to see a threat from Russia, but in general, nobody actually cares about Russia. Nobody thinks about Russia day to day. So the vulnerabilities of our civilian population is, is the first piece. The second piece in terms of. More conventional defense to me is air defense. Again, we are not at the point where Russia is about to start rolling tanks across in NATO territory. Have they already sent in shahi drones? Yes. And for example, the time when there were around 20 drones, I think it was 19, around 20 drones that went into Poland, and one of them got 500 kilometers into Polish territory. All of that air defense was air based. It was F sixteens and an Italian A works. There was no ground-based air defense that was successfully deployed at all. So if we cannot even protect our skies as a first step, the entire piece around protecting ourselves against a ground-based invasion is later down the line. I do not see enough of a focus on air defense and my, my fear actually. A scenario is not so much necessarily around Shaheed, it’s around technology developing, which it is not too far off now, of there being the ability for drones to swarm and to have autonomous targeting. Because to me, what is a potential scenario of that? You look at the Baltics, it’s a small territory. You are trapped by water. So if you imagine a mass swarm of drones with the ability for autonomous targeting being sent in, so you create mass panic, mass fear, mass movement, clog up of roads, and therefore military ground lines of communication and. An emptying of that territory that’s then very hard to take back. Now it’s a hypothetical scenario. I’m not saying I necessarily think it will happen, but these are the sorts of things that concern me. That to me is far more likely as a scenario than tanks rolling into Estonia, for example.

Dominic Bowen: Yeah, very much. I, I think you, you’re totally correct, and I don’t think it’s, it’s hyperbolic at, at all. And I, we’ve had plenty of guests come on the podcast and this is something I see when working. With corporate actors and state actors across Europe, we’ve seen hospitals go offline for months. Local governments go offline for weeks. We’ve seen, uh, in Norway, one of their major dams was opened up. Literally the floodgates were, were opened up. We’ve seen, uh, telecommunications cable in several countries dug up and cut. And of course, we’ve all seen the, the energy and telecommunications cables and the Baltic being attacked. So these aren’t hyperbolic. These are things that are occurring today, and that’s over on top of the state sponsored. Espionage that’s occurring in corporate and state actors, uh, across Northern Europe. And I think when we see this was going on, you know, we, we have to sort of ask ourself. Now, Ukraine is an amazingly adept country that the population is largely educated, you know, population of about 44 million people. So it’s not a tiny country. But nevertheless, if you compare Ukraine size to the size of Russia and their military spending on Russia. I think, you know, we’re we’re justified in going, how did Ukraine do this? How has Ukraine been able to put up such an amazing defense? And of course, noting that Russia’s special military operation was something that was meant to occur in just days. Of course, it’s now a, a costly war of attrition. How do you think, is it, is it technology? Is it tactics? You know, what is it that has enabled Ukraine to, to stay in the war for so long and be so effective in their defense?

Elizabeth Bullock: There are, of course, the factors that we all know well, one being that someone defending their home and their home country is always going to be worth more than an invading force. There are, of course, also the cultural elements where within Russia there is a much higher culture of punishment for mistakes. So one of the reasons there was a lack of agility in Russia’s commander Control is that. There was not that empowerment and junior officers or or smaller groups were not given that autonomy in that agency to be able to operate. They were constantly having to have commands go up and down the command chain. So they were not able to quickly adapt to, as you say, a very unexpected scenario when they thought they were going to be going through in three days and, and indeed I happened to drive out of Kyiv the first day. The E 40, which is the motorway that runs between the Viv and Kyiv. The first day was open and it had been literally fought over, and there was this very famous convoy of Russian tanks that had been advancing on the city and had been destroyed. We drove past that and you, you just still had glass everywhere. You had Ukrainian ambulance that had been shot through the windscreen. You, you had all of that there, but you know, Ukraine adapted very effectively to that. Those Russians apparently had their ceremonial uniforms in those tanks because they were expecting to be doing a victory parade in Kyiv that quickly, whereas the Ukrainians quickly were able to get hold of RPGs of, of Javelins, of in-laws and. Adapt and take out those tanks. Whereas Russia, for example, did not have infantry support for those tank convoys, so they were just easily getting picked off and they did not adapt and try to create and and change that. The other thing, of course, is that Ukraine knows full well that it just does not have the manpower to expend that Russia does. So it drives this need and desire to innovate, to keep the edge. On this very, very close competition on technological advances and things have moved back and forth in, in sometimes devastating ways. Ukraine has done a huge amount of innovation in the area of UGVs, unmanned ground vehicles. Because it means that they can do ca acts casualty evacuations of injured soldiers without more soldiers getting injured because Russia has been creating these loiter drones that they will just park in a field and leave, and then if they successfully hit a soldier or a vehicle, and then other Ukrainian soldiers come to try and help them, they will then. Launch these loiter drones from where they are nearby and use them to conduct what is effectively the most modern form of a double tap strike. So these are all things that are constantly changing. So Ukraine has done very well at creating these UGVs, not only for CASA bags, but also to deliver supplies, whether it’s munitions, whether it’s food. There was, there was a story the other day of a Ukrainian soldier who got trapped on his position for. I forget the figure perhaps, you know, but sort of a 250 days or something akin to that. And they eventually, on their fourth attempt, managed to get him out with a UGV because no sold. Other soldiers could physically reach him there.

Dominic Bowen: Yeah, that was an amazing story, uh, amazing story and, uh, you know, what a hero being able to live and survive in that environment for, for so long. And, and I’ll just take the a moment to remind our listeners, Elizabeth, that if you’d like to watch your podcast, the International WI Podcast is always available on YouTube. So please do go to YouTube and search for the International this podcast. Remember, please subscribe to, and like our content really is critical for our success. Elizabeth, I, I wonder now you are back in the uk you’ve got this amazing experience and you’ve seen so much and experienced so much, you know, what’s the, the hardest thing to communicate? If there was one thing you could really convince business leaders and, and politicians and policy advisors, what would be that one thing you’d want to change in people’s understanding about the conflict in Ukraine, but also the threat from Russia?

Elizabeth Bullock: I would tell them to forget about what people called the war in Ukraine. Because it is a complete distraction from the fact that Russia is trying to attack Europe, and by calling it the war in Ukraine, it means it limits it in people’s mind to it being a conflict off over there, not going to affect us, and that it is just Ukraine’s problem when unfortunately the opposite is true and the a message that people are trying to get out is the real shocker. If there is a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which is highly unlikely because Russia has no interest in doing so, and that is also an issue with media coverage, that there is this talk of a peace deal when Russia is just playing for time and effectively stringing Trump along in order to appease him and not have more harsh treatment from Trump. But Russia has no interest and no incentive in ending this conflict. And indeed for Putin personally, where he just suddenly ended his. Tenure, his hold on power would also fail. So there is not going to be a peace deal that Russia is going to suddenly agree to unless it is put under sufficient economic pressure that it has to acquiesce. But even if there is a peace deal, which everybody hopes for the situation for the rest of Europe becomes more dangerous and not less because Russia will re-arm it will increase its hybrid warfare tactics, which is already happening and already increasing. The most important thing that Russia is trying to do is to divide us and to distract us. And in some ways it sounds very obvious, oh, Russia wants to splinter alliances, but I prefer to bring it down a level from that because it’s all easy for us to think about, oh, EU Brexit. Russia is trying to divide our societies from within. They are trying to polarize us. They are trying to have us focused on anything but the threat from Russia. Whatever is the most potent, whether it is frustration with current governments, whether it is immigration, whether it is any form of discontent, and anything that creates an emotion of outrage. That’s the most powerful emotion that Russia manipulate and it is very good at doing so. And my fear is that we will not realize how successfully this has been done until it is too late. We will, we are all seeing what’s happening in the states. And the huge threats to democracy and liberal values that are happening there. We should not be so arrogant to assume that it could never happen in Western Europe if we do not fight to protect those values and those democratic ideologies that we have. Because ultimately, any form of democratic ideology is the biggest threat to Russia, and that is why. They will keep attacking us and trying to dismantle that as much as they can.

Dominic Bowen: Well, that was really thoughtful, uh, and helpful analysts, so thanks very much for that, Elizabeth. And maybe just in, in the last 30 seconds, but one question we ask all our guests, and I’m very keen to hear your opinion. When you look around the world, Elizabeth, what are the international risks that concern you the most?

Elizabeth Bullock: The power of disinformation and how It is so easy to hide. Many of us heard recently how with the internet blackout in Iran, 25% of online accounts saying that they were pro Scottish independence suddenly disappeared overnight. That’s just Iran. Russia has formed for this as well. This threat that we cannot see for many of us, that we cannot understand in some ways. It’s a little bit like COVID. It is a threat you cannot see, you cannot touch. There’s nothing tangible about it. So it’s very hard to really grasp the potential gravity of what this could be. Having foreign powers, being able without visibility, let alone accountability to paddle around in our countries and severely damage our societal values and cohesion. That is my greatest concern.

Dominic Bowen: Yeah, I think that’s very valid. Very valid. And Elizabeth, let me take the opportunity to thank you very much for your time and thank you very much for coming on the International Risk Podcast.

Elizabeth Bullock: Thank you so much for having me. It’s been a real pleasure to join you.

Dominic Bowen: Well, that was a fantastic conversation with Elizabeth Bullock. I really, really appreciated hearing her thoughts on how the technology and tactics of the war in Ukraine and the lessons that we can all be learning across Europe and of course, north America. Today’s podcast was produced and coordinated by Keir Fairley. I’m Dominic Bowen, your hosts. Thanks very much for listening. We’ll speak again in the next couple of days. Thank you for listening to this episode of the International Risk Podcast. For more episodes and articles, visit the international risk podcast.com. Follow us on LinkedIn, blue Sky, and Instagram for the latest updates, and to ask your questions to our host, Dominic Bowen. See you next time.