Episode 275: Hybrid Warfare: The New Normal with Cormac Smith

Coordinated and Produced by Elisa Garbil

Dive into the ongoing war with Cormac Smith today. Dominic and Cormac discuss Mariupol, whether the war can be considered genocide, the disinformation war, the reality of Russian aggression, war crimes, hybrid warfare, the need for unity, and more!

Today we are joined by Cormac Smith. Cormac works at the intersection of authentic leadership & effective communication. He travelled to Ukraine in 2016 to take up a special appointment as the ‘Strategic Communication Advisor’ to Pavlo Klimkin, the then Foreign Minister of Ukraine. Cormac was attached to the British Embassy in Kyiv but was embedded in Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the first foreigner to hold such a position. There he worked for the cabinet ministers of Health, Education and the Deputy Prime Minister. In addition, he worked with The National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine and the NATO mission to the country. In 2018, Cormac joined the National Security Communication Team in the Cabinet Office, specifically to advise on Russian Disinformation / Hybrid Warfare tactics, in the wake of the Skripal poisoning in Salisbury. In addition, Cormac is a communication coach & charity leader & Bobsleigh veteran!

The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.

Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.

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Transcript:

[00:00:00]

Cormac Smith: It’s very, very simple. If Russia stops fighting, there will be no war. If Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no Ukraine.

Elisa Garbil: Welcome back to the International Risk Podcast, where we discuss the latest world news and significant events impacting businesses and organizations worldwide.

Dominic Bowen: Hi, I’m Dominic Bowen. Today we’re joined by Cormac Smith, former strategic communications advisor to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister between 2016 and 2018. He was the first foreigner embedded in the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and helped shape its messaging. Cormac has also advised the UK Cabinet Office on Russian disinformation and hybrid warfare and trained ministers and diplomats across Europe in strategic communication. Today, we’ll explore how Ukraine manages risk and resilience under systemic stress, changing Russian tactics, and why strategic communication and authentic leadership are as decisive as air defense systems.

Cormac Smith: Dominic, it’s a great pleasure to join you. Thank you.

Dominic Bowen: Cormac, last night was another terrible night in Ukraine. Kyiv and several other cities were hit, affecting electricity. Residential buildings were damaged by Russian drones and missiles.

Historically, a hundred years ago under Lenin, the USSR set up 900 concentration camps in Ukraine to destroy its people, culture, and language. By legal definition, genocide is the physical destruction, in whole or in part, of a group of people. Is genocide occurring in Ukraine today?

Cormac Smith: I absolutely believe it is. Back in January 2021, I predicted that if Putin invaded, it would be genocidal. He has no compunction about murdering tens of thousands of civilians, as seen in Aleppo and Chechnya. The first city he targeted was Mariupol, a city of half a million—about the same size as Edinburgh—which has been virtually wiped off the map. Conservative estimates suggest 25,000 civilians died in seven weeks; other reports suggest higher.

A friend of mine, Sean Pinner, a former British soldier who joined the Ukrainian Marines, was captured and tortured for 18 months. He was sentenced to death but was freed in a prisoner swap. He later wrote a book called Live Fight Survive. Mariupol’s destruction was systematic, reminiscent of atrocities in WWII, but on a larger scale.

One of the UN’s genocide tests involves taking children from a group. Estimates suggest 20,000–40,000 Ukrainian children have been forcibly taken to Russia, with some forced into the Russian military. This is genocide.

Russia also used numerous lies to justify invasion: NATO expansion (Ukraine wasn’t a member), claiming Ukraine is full of Nazis (its president is of Jewish heritage), and allegations about a Russian-backed coup in Kyiv. Ukraine is a rich, historic country, the “jewel” of the former USSR, with immense industrial output and human capital. Putin wants Ukraine back for these resources and to suppress a free, democratic state on his border.

Dominic Bowen: Ukrainian culture is ancient and rich—Ukraine was the first country to have a printing press, centuries before Russia. Regarding Mariupol, people couldn’t believe the invasion would happen despite its strategic significance.

Cormac Smith: Absolutely. Many Ukrainians had family in Russia and couldn’t believe the Kremlin would commit atrocities. Russian disinformation has been pervasive. For example, Putin claimed he was protecting Russian-speaking minorities, yet Mariupol was Russian-speaking and pro-Russian—yet it was wiped out.

The Kremlin’s disinformation is strategic: not to convince, but to confuse. Russia spent $1.4 billion last year alone on such campaigns, supporting extreme groups across political spectrums in the West. We are losing the information war because democratic societies are vulnerable to this “fire hose of falsehoods.”

Dominic Bowen: How does communications and information complement Europe’s defense? What can be done differently?

Cormac Smith: The information sphere is critical. Europe must be more united. Within the EU and NATO, countries like Hungary and Slovakia sometimes obstruct support for Ukraine, allowing Russia to exploit divisions. A coalition of the willing, led by countries like the UK, France, and Germany, is more effective.

Ukraine itself can improve government communications—more strategic and joined-up messaging is needed. President Zelensky is exceptional, but the Ukrainian government could enhance internal coordination.

Meanwhile, Russia targets civilians and infrastructure to break the will of Ukrainians. Ukraine counters with long-range strikes against Russian logistics. Western support has sometimes been slow, e.g., delayed provision of weapons like the Taurus missiles. But Ukraine has adapted, creating its own long-range cruise missile, the Flamingo.

Dominic Bowen: Hybrid attacks in Europe are increasing: sabotage, GPS jamming, drone incursions, and maritime disruptions. Governments need to respond without normalizing or inviting further aggression.

Cormac Smith: There’s no risk of overreacting. Russia constantly probes for weaknesses, as Winston Churchill famously warned about appeasers. Hybrid attacks in the UK—arson, cyberattacks—are part of a continuous Russian campaign. The West still underestimates that we are at war with Russia.

Dominic Bowen: Europe and Ukraine must prepare across all phases of conflict.

Cormac Smith: Yes, unity is crucial. Europe must align more closely and invest in communication efforts. Ukraine has shown incredible resilience, and Western support must be timely and adequate. If Ukraine falls, the threat spreads beyond its borders.

Dominic Bowen: Business leaders are increasingly aware. Before the 2022 invasion, they saw the conflict in early phases; now they see it in later phases, reflecting heightened awareness of the existential threat.

Elisa Garbil: Thank you for listening to the International Risk Podcast. For more episodes and articles, visit internationalriskpodcast.com. Follow us on LinkedIn, Bluesky, and Instagram for updates, and submit questions to our host, Dominic Bowen.