Grey Zone Warfare, Strategic Ambiguity, and the Future of Conflict

Grey zone warfare has become one of the defining strategic challenges of the twenty-first century. Positioned between peace and open conflict, this domain encompasses cyber intrusions, election interference, disinformation, sabotage, covert maritime activity and the growing use of state and non-state proxies. In this episode of The International Risk Podcast, Dominic Bowen speaks with Professor Andrew Mumford, Professor of War Studies at the University of Nottingham, to examine why grey zone tactics have risen to strategic prominence and how they are reshaping contemporary geopolitics.

Professor Mumford’s research spans insurgency, proxy warfare and military strategy. His reflections in the episode position today’s hybrid activity within longer historical patterns of irregular conflict. While states have always blended conventional and unconventional tools, he notes that the scale, frequency and geopolitical importance of grey zone activity today represent a significant transformation in the strategic environment.

The Nature of the Grey Zone

Grey zone competition thrives on the deliberate manipulation of boundaries. It operates outside formal declarations of war but inside a political space where states seek meaningful gains without provoking direct military retaliation. Professor Mumford describes this phenomenon as activity that operates “in that space between war and peace where states deliberately blur attribution and intent”