For decades, North Korea has been framed as unpredictable, irrational, and perpetually on the brink of crisis. Missile launches, nuclear tests, and sudden diplomatic reversals often reinforce the perception of a regime driven by impulse rather than strategy. Yet this narrative obscures a more complex reality. Beneath the dramatic headlines lies a system that calibrates…
Rachel Minyoung Lee is a Senior Fellow for the Stimson Center’s Korea Program and 38 North. She is also co-chair of the North Korea Economic Forum, which is part of the policy program at the George Washington University’s Institute for Korean Studies (GWIKS). Lee was a North Korea collection expert and analyst with Open Source…
This episode with Rachel Minyoung Lee examines the evolving risk landscape surrounding North Korea, moving beyond headlines focused solely on nuclear escalation to explore the country’s broader strategic behaviour. We discuss how Pyongyang balances military signalling with pragmatic decision making, why weapons tests and military exercises are often calibrated rather than impulsive, and how sanctions, limited trade,…
The US dollar remains the central pillar of the global financial system. It dominates cross-border payments, underpins trade invoicing, and accounts for the majority of official foreign exchange reserves. Yet in recent years, debates about the durability of dollar dominance have intensified, driven by the expanded use of financial sanctions, the emergence of digital currencies,…
Daniel McDowell is Maxwell Advisory Board Professor of International Affairs at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University and a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. He is a former Wilson Center China Fellow. As a scholar, McDowell specializes in the study of financial sanctions, the dynamics of…
This episode with Dr Daniel McDowell examines how digital currencies, financial sanctions, and geopolitical competition are shaping the future of the global monetary system. We explore why the US dollar continues to dominate global finance despite political pressure and technological change, how sanctions influence state behaviour, and why network effects make rapid currency shifts unlikely. The discussion also…
The defining feature of today’s international system is not the emergence of a new balance of power, but the absence of a shared framework through which power is exercised. Rather than transition, the system is characterised by fragmentation, uncertainty, and weak consensus over rules, norms, and responsibilities. In a recent episode of The International Risk…
Dr. Paal Hilde is professor of war studies at the Institute for Defence Studies (IFS), which is part of the Norwegian Defence University College. He earned his DPhil in politics at the University of Oxford (St. Antony’s College) in 2003. Paal has previously worked on policy planning and NATO at the Norwegian Ministry of Defence…
The Arctic and the High North are undergoing rapid transformation. Climate change is reshaping the physical environment, while shifting alliance dynamics and renewed geopolitical competition are altering how states think about security, access, and risk in the region. Yet despite growing attention, the Arctic is often framed through simplified narratives that overstate militarisation, exaggerate commercial…
This episode with Dr Paal Hilde explores how climate change, alliance dynamics, and geopolitical competition are reshaping the Arctic and the High North, and why this region is becoming increasingly significant in global risk calculations. We examine how melting sea ice is altering maritime access and infrastructure stress, while also challenging long-held assumptions about security, commercial opportunity, and…
