Tracking the Hidden Threat: How Conventional Weapons Are Diverted to Fuel Global Violence

Author: Camila Mateos Betancourt

Conventional weapons diversion is one of the most under-recognized yet critical international security threats today. Firearms and ammunition, which begin their lifecycle in legal and regulated markets, too often slip into the illicit sphere, arming criminal networks, destabilizing post-conflict societies, and undermining national and regional security.

In Episode 238, we host Nils Duquet, Director of the Flemish Peace Institute and one of Europe’s foremost experts on illicit firearms trafficking and gun violence. Together, they unpack how and where weapons are diverted, the risks this poses globally, and the urgent need for better oversight, regulation, and cooperation.

What Is Weapons Diversion and Why Should You Care?

Weapons diversion refers to the process by which legally produced and distributed firearms end up in the hands of unauthorized users or illegal markets. As Nils Duquet explains, almost all weapons used in conflicts and violent crime were initially manufactured and traded legally. However, gaps in enforcement, oversight, and digital tracking allow these weapons to “fall off the radar.”

Diversion occurs through multiple pathways:

• Battlefield capture in conflict zones
• Theft from private owners, gun shops, or even government stockpiles
• Fraudulent documentation in arms trade and export licenses
• Non-regularization, when outdated laws leave legacy weapons unaccounted for
• Smuggling through trafficking routes used for drugs and other illicit goods

Each of these routes enables firearms to empower criminal organizations, fuel drug violence, and prolong conflicts long after peace agreements are signed.

“Weapons are durable goods,” Duquet says. “They can last decades, circulating from one conflict to another, often across the same regions.”

Episode 238

Europe’s Role in the Global Weapons Puzzle

While conflict zones often dominate headlines, Europe is also deeply entangled in this issue—as both a source and transit region for diverted arms. According to Duquet, despite having some of the strictest firearm regulations globally, Europe faces significant threats from legacy weapons (such as those from the Balkan wars), lax enforcement, and poor digital oversight.

In countries like Sweden, Belgium, and the Netherlands, gun violence is on the rise, often tied to organized crime and drug trafficking. Sweden, in fact, now has the highest per capita gun violence rate in Europe.

“We see a worrying trend where younger and lower-level criminals are arming themselves and not afraid to use firearms,” Duquet explains. “This isn’t just a crime issue; it’s a governance and security risk.”

Programs like DIVERT, funded by the EU’s Internal Security Fund, aim to address this. They focus on understanding the size and scope of diversion, improving information sharing, and developing best practices to prevent weapons from entering the black market.

A Global Risk That Demands Global Solutions

Conventional weapons diversion isn’t just a domestic policing issue, it’s a complex transnational risk with far-reaching implications:

• It fuels drug trafficking, with firearms used for protection, intimidation, or barter in criminal economies.
• It exacerbates humanitarian crises, as unregulated arms contribute to violence in fragile post-conflict states.
• It threatens international peacebuilding efforts, especially in regions flooded with leftover or recycled arms.

In today’s unpredictable global environment, marked by hybrid warfare, proxy conflicts, and increased defense spending, understanding and mitigating weapons diversion is more urgent than ever.

As Duquet notes, production countries like those in North America and Europe have a responsibility to track and control where their arms end up. “Complex risks need complex solutions,” he says.