Episode 309: Corridors of Power: Political Risk and the New Global Supply Chain Map with Sophia B-A
Coordinated and Produced by Elisa Garbil
From Central Asia’s emerging transport corridors to Iran’s sanctions and water stress, this episode of the International Risk Podcast explores how political risk, geopolitics, and climate change are reshaping the global trade map – revealing why supply chain durability is no longer just an economic question, but a strategic one for governments and companies alike.
Sophia Nina B-A has lived and worked for over a decade in Central Asia and Afghanistan, conducting geopolitical risk analysis and strategic advisory services in both the public and private sectors. Her particular area of focus is on transport infrastructure, particularly railways. She currently works as a freelance journalist and a consultant for the international development sector, with her recent assignment consulting for the IFC based in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
In 2024, she founded Train of Thought, a project that researches, maps and offers strategic analysis on railway development in Iran, Central Asia and Afghanistan. She has published over 30 articles on railways and transport infrastructure with bylines in RUSI, The Diplomat, Le Monde, The BBC, and The Economist. Sophia is a native English speaker and fluent in Uzbeki, Russian, Dari and conversational Tajiki.
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Transcript:
Sophia B-A:
Each country in Central Asia has its own kind of strategy—its own transport strategy. So I guess it helps to think of them all as different. Each country has its own interests and its own kinds of relationships, both bilaterally with Russia, China, and the West, but also multilaterally.
Elisa Garbil:
Welcome back to the International Risk Podcast, where we discuss the latest world news and significant events that impact businesses and organizations worldwide.
Dominic Bowen:
Hi, I have one question before we dive into today’s episode. If this podcast helps you make sense of geopolitics, security, and the risks that affect all of us, please hit follow or subscribe. In return, my commitment to you is that we will keep producing the highest-quality episodes with the best guests and conversations that leave you better prepared for what’s coming in our world.
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Welcome to the International Risk Podcast. I’m Dominic Bowen, and today we’re looking at the new map of global trade—not the one drawn by engineers or freight forwarders, but the one drawn by political risk, as companies work hard to de-risk their supply chains globally.
The question isn’t so much which supply chain corridor is the shortest or cheapest, but which is the most politically durable. We’ve got quite a few to look at: China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the International North–South Transport Corridor, and the so-called Middle Corridor across Central Asia.
This might sound like a lot, but it’s actually central to modern supply chains and something more of us should understand. To help us unpack these political risks and supply chain considerations, I’m joined today by Sophia Nina Bernai. She’s a geopolitical risk analyst who has spent more than a decade living and working in Central Asia and Afghanistan.
She’s the founder of Train for Thought, a project tracking rail and corridor development across Iran, Central Asia, and Afghanistan. She’s written extensively for outlets including RUSI, The Diplomat, BBC, and The Economist. I’m really looking forward to today’s conversation.
Sophia, welcome to the International Risk Podcast.
Sophia B-A:
Hello, I’m very excited to be here.
Dominic Bowen:
Sophia, can we start by explaining to our listeners what transport corridors are, and perhaps more importantly, why they matter?
Sophia B-A:
Sure. In the broadest sense, a transport corridor is a designated network of routes that connect point A to point B—country A to country B. This can consist of roads, railways, terminals, and seaports.
They matter because we’re seeing a major rearrangement of global supply chains. International sanctions on seaborne trade have accelerated the shift toward land transport. At the same time, concerns around carbon emissions are making road transport less attractive, creating a strong push toward rail.
More broadly, transport corridors are becoming riskier to navigate. There’s a growing need to understand supply chain transparency—where the risks are, where vulnerabilities lie, and where improvements are needed to secure industries, goods, critical minerals, and energy resources, and to ensure access when they’re needed most.
There’s a pressing need to understand this space because our knowledge is still quite limited, particularly in that part of the world.
Dominic Bowen:
I think all our listeners understand the importance of de-risking supply chains. But at a more granular level, can you walk us through the different corridors—the Belt and Road Initiative, the International North–South Transport Corridor, and the Middle Corridor? What are they actually made up of?
Sophia B-A:
Sure. The three largest transport corridor projects underway are, first, Russia’s International North–South Transport Corridor—also known as the Iranian route. It’s about 7,200 kilometers long and mainly traverses Iran, connecting Russia to Central Asia.
It’s largely a land-based corridor, linking Russian Caspian seaports with Iranian Caspian ports, before goods move south by rail through Iran and onward to South Asia and Central Asia. There are multiple branches, including routes toward the Middle East, Oman, and Iraq, giving it a broader regional reach.
The second is the Middle Corridor, officially known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor. It’s backed by the EU and the US and aims to connect Central Asia with the West while bypassing Russia. It also links China through Central Asia.
The third is China’s Belt and Road Initiative—President Xi Jinping’s flagship project—designed to connect China and Europe via Central Asia by land, sea, and air.
Last year, I spent most of my time traveling across Central Asia and Afghanistan to see firsthand how these corridors are being used, how far construction has progressed, and what challenges exist on the ground. Being there gives you a very different picture from what you read online.
Dominic Bowen:
What did you actually see on the ground? Are these corridors heavily used, or still developing?
Sophia B-A:
There’s still a long way to go. In Kazakhstan, for example, at Aktau—one of the main hubs for the Middle Corridor—capacity is limited. The Caspian Sea requires dredging, and large ships can’t fully dock, which constrains cargo volumes.
Cold storage and refrigerated facilities for perishable goods are also underdeveloped. The EBRD estimates around $17 billion in investment is needed for the Middle Corridor to reach full capacity.
Another major issue is that these corridors are multimodal—cargo shifts between road, sea, and rail. There’s no unified electronic consignment system yet, so paperwork must be redone at each border or terminal. Physical documents still dominate, though pilot digital systems are being tested.
Overall, there’s clear demand, but many operational elements must be fixed before these routes become reliable and profitable at scale.
Dominic Bowen:
Have political risks already influenced companies’ choices between corridors?
Sophia B-A:
Absolutely. After the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war, sanctions made it difficult for Western shippers to use the Northern Corridor through Russia. That forced many to explore alternatives like the Middle Corridor, even though it’s not a full replacement.
Sanctions on Iran have also pushed a shift toward land transport and rail, which Iran increasingly sees as both an economic and national security strategy. Railways even became targets during the Israel–Iran escalation earlier this year.
Afghanistan adds another layer of risk. Some corridor projects include Afghanistan, but the Taliban government creates major challenges—internal divisions, weak institutions, and the abolition of the legislative branch have made documentation ad hoc and unpredictable.
Insurance, cargo tracking, and delays all become much harder to manage under these conditions.
Dominic Bowen:
From a business perspective, what political risk variables matter most—sometimes even more than cost or time?
Sophia B-A:
It really depends on the cargo—whether it’s strategic goods, energy, or perishables—and how quickly it needs to arrive.
Border congestion, visa rules for drivers, wagon availability, and paperwork all matter. For example, border closures in Kazakhstan earlier this year stranded cargo and created diplomatic tensions.
Wagon shortages are another issue. Specialized wagons—like refrigerated units or grain hoppers—aren’t always available. If you can’t secure the right equipment, everything slows down.
Tariffs, sanctions, and dual-use goods regulations further complicate matters. Political risk often shows up in these smaller operational details.
Dominic Bowen:
How much of this is economics versus geopolitics?
Sophia B-A:
They’re inseparable. Political events directly affect insurance costs, demand, and corridor viability. Conflicts, sanctions, and diplomatic shifts can halt or delay massive infrastructure projects overnight.
Transport corridors require huge investments and long-term stability. As political priorities change, so do corridor strategies.
Dominic Bowen:
What do decision-makers often misunderstand about Afghanistan and Iran?
Sophia B-A:
The biggest issue is financing and security. Western banking systems don’t function well in these environments, and political conditions can change rapidly.
Large infrastructure projects need guarantees that investments won’t be diverted or destroyed. Corruption, insurgent attacks, and internal instability make that difficult.
Some progress exists, but projects remain limited in scale. Things can change very quickly.
Dominic Bowen:
How do sanctions and Iran’s internal instability shape corridor development?
Sophia B-A:
Sanctions are a double-edged sword. These countries have adapted by diversifying markets and commodities, moving away from Western markets and the dollar.
But for transit states in Central Asia, this creates a delicate balance. Economically, they benefit from transit fees, but politically they must be careful about what goods they allow to pass through their territory.
Dominic Bowen:
Is climate change creating new choke points?
Sophia B-A:
Yes. Falling Caspian Sea levels are already limiting ship sizes. Water shortages in Uzbekistan and extreme weather in Kazakhstan affect infrastructure reliability and cargo speed. Climate stress is becoming a real operational risk.
Dominic Bowen:
What risks concern you most right now?
Sophia B-A:
Cargo security, food security, geopolitical uncertainty—especially around Russia and Ukraine—and AI infrastructure, which requires land, water, and energy. In water-stressed regions, that can spark conflict.
Dominic Bowen:
Sophia, thank you very much for joining us today.
Sophia B-A:
Thank you—it’s been a pleasure.
Dominic Bowen:
That was a great conversation with Sophia Nina Bernai, founder of Train for Thought. Please remember to visit the International Risk Podcast website and subscribe to our newsletter.
This episode was produced by Elisa Garbil and edited by Stephen Penny. I’m Dominic Bowen—thanks for listening, and we’ll see you next time.
