Avoiding the Next Epidemic
This week Dominic has Amanda McClelland on the podcast! They dive into pandemics, epidemics, how climate change might influence the rise of epidemics, what future responses should be would another pandemic occur, and much more! Listen here.

Outbreaks and Disease
An outbreak of a disease is in a community. An epidemic is limited to a country or to a health system of a territory, think for example a region or a province, in addition it tends to be a sudden outbreak with rapid extension of a contagious disease amongst a large population. A pandemic is either continental or global, that tends to include multiple outbreaks either directly or indirectly, which are connected to each other. Pandemics tends to affect more global dense areas with infectious and non-infectious disease. Because we as humans have moved more and more into cities and dense urban areas, there has been an explosion in pandemics.
Pandemics are happening more and more, affecting millions of people. Pandemics tend to be a result of disease spread from animals. The Black Death is an example, where fleas jumped from rats to humans and caused the deadliest pandemic ever recorded with over 200 million people dying. In this century we’ve had SARS (2002-2003), H1N1 (2009 – ongoing), MERS (2012 – ongoing), EBV (2014 – ongoing) and COVID-19 (2019 – ongoing). The latest’s pandemics have been caused by bats, as they have the ability to move across large distances, allowing pathogens to spread easily. HIV is also a disease stemming from animals, as it has likely come from monkeys and chimpanzees when indigenous people hunted, dressed, and ate these primates.
We have had huge medical and scientific advances, such as vaccinations, yet the potential for diseases to spread has increased, escalating outbreaks and turning them into epidemics or pandemics. Researcher have found that the probability of a pandemic with similar impact to COVID-19 is about 2% in any year, in one’s lifetimes this probability is around 38%.

Six factors that lead to the increased occurrence of pandemics:
- Travel – people travel more from one country to another in less than 24 hours.
- Population growth – a large human population favours the spread and perpetuation of diseases.
- Urbanisation – increasing numbers of people live in overcrowded and unhygienic environments in which infectious diseases can thrive.
- Climate change – alters the natural range of disease carrying insects, for example mosquitoes.
- Expanding agricultural land – leading to deforestation.
- Land development – think of dam construction, mining, oil/gas exploitation: takes away from animals’ habitats leading to a more concentrated area where people are being put in more direct contact with new animal species and their viruses.
- Increased human-animal contact – zoonotic diseases are more common because of pathogens jumping the species barrier. Humans tend to have more animals and take over more land, which to a closer proximity to wild animals.
- Hunting – HIV occurred because of close contact between monkeys and chimpanzees which were eaten and hunted by humans in Africa.
- Pasturage practices – monocultures promote susceptibility to infections. SARS is an example.
- Shortage of health workers – migration of health workers from low- and middle-income countries to high-income countries depletes the health workforce in many nations in regions where epidemic diseases (that could become pandemics) are most likely to originate. Increase of vulnerability to the threat of disease outbreaks.
In order to stop the spread of diseases one needs to vaccinate, if there are vaccinations, and to prevent anything from spreading one needs to ensure social distancing, washing hands properly and wearing masks when feeling under the weather.
Three Things to Mitigate the Impacts of Pandemics:
Amanda McClelland
- Become friends with your local public health department.
- Private sector shouldn’t underestimate their role as a trusted messenger.
- Have a plan.
H5N1 Bird Flu International Risks
The H5N1 avian influenza virus, commonly known as bird flu, has been a significant concern due to its impact on both animal and human health. the World Health Organization has reported over 950 human cases of H5N1 avian influenza, with approximately half of these cases resulting in death. Since 2024, the United States has reported 66 confirmed human cases of H5N1, primarily among individuals working closely with poultry or dairy cattle. These cases have predominantly resulted from direct contact with infected animals, and while most have been mild, there have been severe instances, including the first reported H5N1-related human death in the US in January 2025.
Globally, H5N1 has been detected in various species, including wild birds, commercial poultry, and mammals. In Texas, multiple cases were found in vultures at Landa Park in Comal County, prompting local authorities to advise residents to avoid contact with sick or dead birds and report unusual wildlife behavior. Similarly, the San Antonio Zoo implemented precautionary measures to protect its animals following confirmed cases in the area.
The virus’s ability to infect a broad range of hosts has raised concerns among health officials. Notably, a new strain of H5N1 was detected in dairy cows in Nevada, marking an unusual cross-species transmission. A worker exposed to these infected cows tested positive for the virus, underscoring the importance of monitoring such developments. Despite these incidents, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) maintains that the risk to the general public remains low, as there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission.
Symptoms of H5N1 infection in humans can range from mild, such as conjunctivitis, to severe respiratory illnesses like pneumonia. Given the virus’s potential severity, health officials recommend avoiding contact with wild birds, ensuring proper handling and cooking of poultry products, and promptly reporting any suspected cases to local health departments. Ongoing surveillance and adherence to biosecurity measures are crucial in mitigating the impact of the current H5N1 epidemic.