Episode 323: Live from Syria: The Risks That Lie Between Liberation and Reconstruction with Dominic Bowen

There are some days in the calendar that people will never forget. 8 December 2024 is a day Syrians will certainlt remember: Liberation Day. Now a national holiday, it marks the fall of the Assad family regime—a dictatorship that had ruled Syria for half a century.

Fourteen months on, where is Syria today? Internationally, the country has secured a number of diplomatic victories. At home, however, the road to rebuilding and ensuring safety and stability remains long. Much of the country still lies in ruins, sectarian tensions have flared up periodically, and there are ongoing threats to Syria’s territorial integrity, including incursions by Turkey and Israel.

What, then, are the main priorities for Syria and al-Sharaa’s government—and what key challenges does the country face as it rebuilds?

And today, to unpack this further, we are joined by a familiar voice, Dominic Bowen, the host you are used to listening to on the International Risk Podcast. Yes, today he is back in the interviewee spot, joining us live from Damascus, and I, Anna Kummelstedt, one of the producers of the show, take on the interview hat once again. Many of you may be used to hearing Dominic’s voice,but what you may not know is that this is not Dominic’s first time in Syria. In fact, he was working with MSF (Doctors without Borders) as a field coordinator in northern Syria in 2014; he then became the Head of the NGO Forum for northern Syria, where Dominic provided leadership and coordination of humanitarian activities. He also authored the report in 2025, “Failing Syria: Assessing the impact of UNSC Resolutions in protecting civilians, and in 2018-19, he supported Save the Children’s operations in Syria. 

The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organized crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.

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Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.

Transcript

Anna Kummelstedt
There are some days in the calendar that people will never forget. The 8th of December 2024 a day Syrians will always remember. Liberation Day. Now a national holiday. The day marking the fall and the end of the Assad family regime, a dictatorship that had ruled Syria for over half a century. 14 months later, where is Syria? What has happened in the meantime? Well, internationally, Syria has had many diplomatic victories. But at home, the road to rebuilding and ensuring safety is still a long road ahead. The country is still largely living in ruins, sectarian tensions are still very much alive, and they’re ongoing threats to the country’s geographical integrity. So, what are the main priorities for Syria and Al-Sharaa’s government? And what are the key challenges at the moment as the country rebuilds?

And today, to unpack this further, we are joined by a familiar voice, Dominic Bowen, the host you are used to listening to on this podcast. But today, he’s back in the interviewee spot, and I, Annika Moustaert, one of the producers of the show, is taking on the interviewee hat once again. What many of you might not know is that this is not Dominic’s first time in Syria, where he is joining us from today. In fact, he was working with MSF, Doctors Without Borders, as a field coordinator in northern Syria in 2014. He then became the head of the NGO Forfor Northern Syria in 2024, where Dominic provided leadership and coordination of humanitarian activities in northern Syria. And he also authored the report in 2015, Failing Syria, Assessing the Impact of un Security Council resolutions and protecting civilians. Dominic, welcome.

Dominic Bowen
Thanks very much, Anna, and thanks very much for that kind introduction. It’s fantastic to be back in Syria and always fun having a conversation with you.

Anna Kummelstedt
Well, let’s crack on and get started. So as I’ve mentioned, you’ve spent time in the 2010s and now you’re back again at a moment many once thought would never come.

Dominic Bowen
Sounds good.

Anna Kummelstedt
So from where you are today, how does the atmosphere’s feel? Can you tell us about what it’s like life on the ground and how does it compare to when you were last there?

Dominic Bowen
Yeah, it’s really interesting, Anna. When I speak to people, and as , I’m very curious, and whether it’s a taxi driver, whether it’s someone selling me a pastry on the side of the road, someone in a hotel, , I’m just forever asking questions, trying to explore, trying to understand people’s rationale, what’s going on, what are they thinking, what are they feeling? And this has just been such a rich opportunity because when I speak to people, everyone’s just like, of course this was going to happen.

The regime was always going to fall. It was just a fait accompli. And I know even back in 2013 and 2014, you’d speak to a variety of rebel groups and opposition groups, and they were saying the same. Of course, the regime’s going fall. And, of course, most sensible people internationally also hoped that. But I think there was quite a few times when many of us thought, ah, well, With the backing of Iran and Hezbollah, with the backing of Russian forces, , the Assad regime is looking quite strong.

Dominic Bowen
But it happens. And it happened amazingly, surprisingly, too. And so fast.

Anna Kummelstedt
And when you’ve been in your time that you’ve been in Syria, have you been able to ask anyone what was that day like, Liberation Day? And when they look back, what do they think of?

Dominic Bowen
Yeah, incredibly. I mean, that’s that’s one area where people do have this element of almost a surprise and shock, but almost this element of of proudness in how it occurred. I mean, if we look at late November, I think it was about the 27th of November that that the opposition groups launched an attack on Western Aleppo. I mean, they captured about 50 towns in the space of one or two days.

They captured full control of Aleppo. And we might talk about this later. they They did use a couple of suicide bombers in order to gain access to the city and then just flooded in. It was a complete collapse of Russian, Iranian and Syrian government forces. They lost tanks, helicopters, planes, air defence systems. And then they just rolled down capturing Hama and then Homs. And then, of course, encircling Damascus. And, , I think they captured Homs late in the evening and then just went…Literally one of these, should we? Let’s just keep going.

Dominic Bowen
And then they rolled down to Damascus. And then of course, Assad got the tap on the shoulder and went to the airport with millions of dollars of of gold and cash and then fled with his family and brother along with many of the the generals. But, , just in the space of a few days had such a huge advance. Now, Yes, they were an overnight success, an overnight success after 12 or 13 years of painful and bloody civil war. But it was an incredibly, incredibly fast advance once they took Aleppo.

Anna Kummelstedt
Yeah, the sheer speed, I mean, it’s pretty remarkable. But i guess going back to the Civil War, for more than a decade, the flow was one way, people fleeing violence. And the refugee crisis that ensued is, I mean, staggering that came out of it. 14 million people forced to flee their homes. But since late 2024, The flow is now the other way, with over 1.3 million Syrians that left the country now returning home, some with UN assistance. What does this tell us about Syrians and the Syrian spirit and the desire for Syrians to be a part of rebuilding their country?

Dominic Bowen
Yeah, I think really what it tells us is that the Syrians, , are very proud people. , it’s not necessarily a single homogenous community or society, but, , it is, if we can generalise, , people that are very proud and they should be. , Syria’s got an amazing, amazing history and some of the oldest cities in the world, some of the oldest churches and mosques in the world. And the the culture is just so incredibly rich. and, , I think that actually contributes partly to your your last question about the the fall and how people felt.

Dominic Bowen
i mean, one of the reasons why the rebels and the opposition groups, I mean, yes, they’d done massive reorganisation from a rebel group to a conventional army and their tactics and techniques had really evolved over the years with support of countries like Turkey and the us But one of the other contributing factors was how poorly run the the government forces were. I mean, it was it was a government narco state. It really was. This wasn’t talked about a lot, but one of the largest producers of amphetamines.

The soldiers weren’t being paid huge levels of of corruption. And that was one of the reasons why there was such little resistance. , most of the country already wanted to see this war over. most of the country wanted to see peace. And that’s one thing that everyone I speak to now and I say, what about international influence? What about do you trust the new government? What about the Asads and all the money that was stolen? There’s generally a bit of a shrug and a, , what we want now is just peace. What we want now is just stability. And I think Syrians, whether they’re Syrians in Syria, in the region or those further afield in the US and Europe, they want peaceful, peaceful, not just a pause between conflicts, but a long-term peace. And I think they’re seeing that they have faith in that. And that’s why so many Syrians are coming back to Syria now to to rebuild and to to really get back involved in what is a beautiful country.

Anna Kummelstedt
Yeah, I think that’s a great point, and especially what you said. it’s It’s a very diverse country, and a lot of the time you focus on all the sectarian violence and do how did the Druze or the Alawites think of the new government? And even though there might be different opinions, I think the country is united, at least in the sense of they want peace. They don’t want to be in this state of war and living in war ruins. But i’m really interested to talk about the current president, Al-Sharaa. What an interesting man he is and the enormous efforts that he’s gone to rebrand himself from being a former jihadist commander, pledging pledging allegiance to al-Qaeda, fighting US forces in Iraq during the Iraq war, to now being a suit and tie statesman pretty much from day one and really presenting himself as a break from the Assad family rule, but also his previous allegiances. And internationally, that’s worked remarkably fast. And he’s got a lot of support.

Anna Kummelstedt
But domestically, is that transformation convincing? And how is Al-Sharaa viewed at home from the interactions you’ve had with ordinary people?

Dominic Bowen
think the people I’ve spoken with, and as I said, it’s been a really diverse people from quite senior people to to people I meet on the street. And generally people are quite proud of him. and it’s important to remember this wasn’t just a poorly educated peasants who picked up a weapon and fought the The bourgeoisie, I mean, thisa guy, his dad was worked in the Ministry of Oil in Saudi Arabia. His mwas a geography teacher. He was very well educated. Himself had a good education when he lived in Syria. He went to fight, as you said, for al-Qaeda in Iraq. He was actually in prison. When I was in Iraq in 2007 and 2008, and then when I started working in Syria in late 2013 and 2014, he was heading up the Jabal al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda link group, and then they broke ties with al-Qaeda, they broke ties with ISIS.

Dominic Bowen
And he he really is clearly a very astute both military commander but also politician. And I think many of his words and many of his statements lead toward legitimacy, demonstrate a desire to have capacity, And, , really most importantly, and, , we might discuss this later, is about creating that societal cohesion. And I think there are three areas that I was particularly worried.

i mean, I was very excited when I could see what was happening in late November and early December 2024. The three things I really had is, is this new force going to have a legitimacy? And I was concerned about that. Are they going to have the capacity? I had very significant concerns. Being a rebel group managing operations in one town or one city, Idlib, is very different to being a mainstream government controlling a large country. And then secondly, are they going to be able to achieve cohesion? I had really concerns about that. And I think in all three of those, it’s a positive story. Now, yes, there’s gaps undoubtedly, but in all three of those, it really is a positive story.

Anna Kummelstedt
Yeah, that’s, I mean, super interesting. And when you think about it, it’s pretty remarkable that there’s one rebel group took over the country. He was made the president and they’re still in power. And although there’s a lot of instability remaining, some foundations have been laid. There has been basic bureaucratic capabilities reinstalled, reforms installed. institutional building, the parliament has been set up, and I think they should be given a credit for that. But I guess, yeah, and what you’re saying, the legitimacy aspect, Syrians during the war, theyve they’ve been used to a brutal regime, a police state built on fear, disinformation, torture. So do people trust this new leadership? And have they put their faith in them to help the country rebuild and all the state building initiatives?

Dominic Bowen
I think they really have. And I think that’s one of his real strengths as as as a leader. , if we look at the conflict over the last 14 or 15 years, , it was very, very common for there to be battles where different groups were meant to turn up and fight pro-government forces. And then only one or two of them would turn up. And the the getting coordination and collaboration and cooperation between the different rebel groups was was just a failing activity and the Turkish government is to be applauded for the work they were doing and trying to bring these groups together and reforming them into coalitions so that they’d be successful and that was something that he was really really instrumental in achieving And I think he’s he’s done that as well. And I think the proof is in the pudding, despite so many of the military and police, the corrupt military, the corrupt police, people who were conducting the tortures, the executions, the disappearance of civilians. Most of those people fled. They fled to neighbouring countries. They fled to to Gulf states. but So there was a a real shortage in policing here for the last 12 or 13 months.

But there’s been, i think the number is about 60,000 police people recruited into the military and about 30,000 recruited into local security services like the the police. So people are really putting their employment, they’re putting their trust in the government and joining these services. And I think that’s a really good sign. It might seem quite , blasé to many of our listeners, but people saying, yeah, I’m willing to join the police, I’m willing to join the military, after those institutions had such a bad reputation. Now people are like, yeah, we trust those institutions, we’re willing to join them, and we see that as as a valid career path. And I think what’s going to be critical now is building the capacity. i mean, one of the definitions of a state, I think it was was a Thomas Hobbes in the eighteen hundreds it said, , the definition of a state is the the sole control of violence or the control of violence by the state is what defines what what a government is.

Something along those lines. I’m sure people will correct me in the comments. But, , that’s something that, , the government really needs to be able to do to achieve legitimacy. They need to have the capacity to control their security forces to make sure that some of the discrepancies, some of the massacres, some of the indiscriminate that’s occurred in the last year or so doesn’t occur anymore in future.

Anna Kummelstedt
Yeah, a huge huge project ahead. And I think it’s fair to say that everyday life for Syrians is still extremely fragile. I mean, they’ve inherited a country which has been completely destroyed. in Entire cities like homes referred to as the capital of the revolution wiped out. And they’re still dealing with sporadic electricity, unsafe water, hospitals are destroyed, education is limited. i mean, basic services that I’m sure you’ve seen are pretty inadequate in the last few weeks, even ATMs that still don’t work and you have to carry around huge lumps of cash anywhere you go. But Syrians obviously talk about the sense almost of a psychological relief and an excitement with the liberation that came after Assad. So how do Syrians that you’ve spoken to weigh this material hardship that they’re dealing with with an on an everyday basis against this political change and sense of liberation?

Dominic Bowen
Yeah, I think that’s a great point because we can sit back at at at a strategic level and talk about these changes. but But on the grounds, , there’s this moral legitimacy. Is there going to be transitional justice? Are the people that committed the worst crimes going to be punished? A missing person is going to be identified? Can families get closure? And those people that aren’t guilty, they’re going to be released and be able to move on. and that’s going to really fit into another form of legitimacy around national legitimacy. Is there going to be a credible path for Sunnis, for Shias, for Alawites, for Druze, Christians, Kurds, and secular Syrians that feel like they can participate in government? These are these are all going to be really important things over the medimediand long term. But on a day-to-day basis, people want to be confident that they can get jobs, that they can earn an income, and that the services that they’re paying their government for through taxes are going to be reasonable. and when speaking to Syrians, when talking about the taxes they pay, the things that they’ve got to pay for, whether it’s visa entry or exit costs, , the costs of fuel, they generally, , when you when you travel through Beirut and Lebanon on your way into Syria, , the Lebanese, again, another beautiful, beautiful country and such an amazing culture. But they won’t miss a beat to complain about the government corruption, to complain about the services and to complain about the taxes and complain about the salaries. And it’s all justified. It’s all justified.

But in Syria, I didn’t hear anyone complain. People just didn’t complain. They were excited about the future. Yes, things are tough. Things are really difficult and inflation is hitting really hard here.But people are positive about the future and they feel like it’s a fair future and it’s definitely a much better future than what it was under the Assad regime.

Anna Kummelstedt
I think that’s a really fair point and something I’ve heard from other people who have spent time in Lebanon and Syria. And this this aspect that Syrians are really positive about the future and hopeful and wanting to be a part of rebuilding Syria, whereas a lot of other parts in the region are just accepting of the situation and not hopeful or positive or motivated about what the the potential for their country.

I think another danger that’s facing Syrians today in this post-war landscape is obviously the landmines. And according to the Halo Trust, a humanitarian demining NGO, in the three months after the regime was ousted, 327 people were killed and 311 were injured by landmines and other explosives. And that is probably an undercount. And according to UNICEF, there are more than 300,000 landmines across Syria. How real is the fear for Syrians about these landmines that still scattered all across the country? And are people talking about it and trying to address it?

Dominic Bowen
I mean, landmines are such a devastating weapon. and I think something that we really don’t pay enough attention to is the use of or what happens to unexploded ordnance because it’s landmines, it’s missile and rockets. Keeping in mind about one in every five to one in every 10 rockets, grenades, et cetera, don’t actually explode when they and they hit whatever they’re going to hit. They just sit there waiting to explode when a farmer or a child comes through. And these things can wait for decades. Many people were killed during the afghan the recent Afghan war, including an Australian soldier, actually, when they stepped on landmines from the war with the Mujahideen against Russia in the 70s and 80s. So these landmines can sit there for decades. But where they’re used, now they can shift, they can move with the work with the with the earth, they can move with rainfall and mud flows and not explode. But generally, I mean, I’m in Damascus right now, and in Damascus there hasn’t been a significant use of landmines and people here.

Thisa large city, city of about 2.5 million people, so comparable to many of the cities and bigger than many of the cities our our listeners are listening from. So there’s not a concern about landmines here, but certainly in much more of the rural parts and again, north of the country places like Aleppo, Homs, Hama, it is a real concern and something that the international community, I hope, especially seeing the international and community provided and sold many of these landmines. especially countries like Iran and Russia that profited from this war, that made billions of dollars in arms sales.

I really hope that they contribute to the demining process that has to occur if the agricultural is going to agricultural lifestyle is going to pick back up because it was a huge agricultural country and it should be and could be again. But there the demining is going to have to be a significant issue that I hope is addressed by foreign powers that materially benefited from it.

Anna Kummelstedt
Absolutely. And I think something that’s been quite promising is I’ve seen a few local initiatives led by these humanitarian and NGOs to educate these villages and towns on the landmines and how to demine them. So getting the communities involved, giving them a job after the war, but also protecting them and the safety component of it all. I’d like to now move to the diplomatic side the this all and Syria’s foreign engagement as reconnecting with the quote-unquote outside world has definitely been a key focus. And I think it’s fair to say that Syria’s diplomatic re-entry entry has been remarkably rapid. I mean, sanctions have been eased. EU leaders have visited Damascus. The UN Security Council visited Damascus in, and I think it was November or December, which was the first time since 1945, Al-Sharaa had the famous visit to the White House and then he addressed the UN n General Assembly. I mean, the list goes on. There’s been energy deals with Qatar, Turkey, now most recently with Chevron to explore offshore oil drilling. there’s and there’s been, Syria’s also obtained pledges from Arab and Western countries for billions of dollars investment, even joining in November the US-led coalition against ISIS. So the speed of the re-engagement is very impressive. And I think al-Sharaa done quite a lot of effort to convince world leaders that he’s the best chance for a stable future in Syria. And I mean, Trump is one of Al-Sharaa’s biggest backers at the moment. So with you in Damascus and seeing all this foreign engagement, which foreign current actors currently have the greatest influence over Syria’s future? And how much room does Damascus really have to act independently?

Dominic Bowen
Yeah, that’s such an important question, Anna. So thanks for asking that. And I think it’s important to realise this isn’t just something hypothetical. I mean, on my first day here, I met with a European delegation and then a US delegation. On my third day here, I unfortunately came across a very large Russian delegation that was meeting with senior officers from the Syrian government. And then this evening, I met with a Saudi delegation. So, and that’s just in my small path over over a very short period of time for big, powerful blocks, all here at the same time separately, but all here at the same time meeting with with Syrian government and senior mi military officials.

But in addition to those countries, Israel. Israel has taken more Syrian land in the last 12 months than what the really media has paid attention to. And it is very significant. It is a land grab. It was opportunistic. And again, it’s unlikely that land is going to be given back. And countries like Iran, Iran has got obviously some very big issues. And, , we’re recording this today, obviously, and it’ll be released in the next couple of days. But, , we’re yet to see if there’s more US strikes in the next couple of days in Iran. So certainly the Iran regime isreally probably more concerned about what’s happening in their own country. Russia’s, , desperately trying to maintain a positive image across the Middle East, especially as it continues its illegal war in Ukraine.

So I think there’s going to be so many actors that are having an influence in Russia. Syria and recognising thisa big, powerful country with a big landmass, big natural resources and what’s historically been a very well-educated population. And then, of course, you’ve got Turkey, which has spent a fortune in backing opposition groups over the last 12, 13, 14 years. And they’re probably expecting some return now. There’s some big Turkish construction companies and other companies that are probably looking to participate in the rebuilding of Syria. And I think they could also have a really, really positive influence in what happens here. And I think that’s what the the Syrians I’m speaking to really care about. They don’t really want Russian engagement. I think to quote one person I spoke to a couple of days ago, he said If we follow Russia, we become poor.

If we follow America, we probably become rich. Now, that’s, of course, a massive simplification of political systems, but I think was probably a good summary of of what people have spoken about. And another thing that’s been consistent amongst nearly every person I’ve spoken to is that they don’t want support from Iran. They don’t like the Iranian. They just, , again, to to quote someone who said yesterday, he said, goes, they’re just different. they are they’re They’re Middle Eastern, they’re they’re Muslim, but they’re very different. They’re not the same as us and we don’t want we don’t want their interference anymore. and again, I think that’s consistent with what most people have have said to me. So hopefully the European Union, hopefully Turkey, hopefully the US can engage and engage positively here and have a really positive difference that will benefit everyone ultimately.

Anna Kummelstedt
Yeah, and I think there’s a yea lot of positive advancements on the with the foreign engagement, both Syria reaching out to foreign actors and foreign actors, as you said, coming to Damascus and wanting to invest in the country and help rebuild. However, you also mentioned Israel, and Israel has remained quite a destabling factor for Syria. Soon after December 8th, it launched air and ground assaults to get rid of a lot of the military weapons from the Assad regime and also to expand its geographical reach into Syria.

In the summer, it used under the pretext of protecting the Druze during the conflict in Sueda. It then responded with a campaign of airstrikes culminating in even attacking the Ministry of Defence here where you are in Damascus. and just from your perspective and what do you think is Israel’s strategy and what does how does it benefit from having a divided Syria versus a unified Syria? And I think it’s also important to acknowledge when talking about the Syria-Israel relationships, Despite it being tense, despite them still occupying the Golan Heights, Al-Sharaa has maintained diplomatic avenues with Israel and has not responded with force. So not only are we looking at what is Israel’s strategy, what is Syria’s strategy and response?

Dominic Bowen
Yeah, the current president of Syria has been very smart in his diplomatic moves and he hasn’t responded with force. He hasn’t been antagonising towards Israel. He recognises that they still control a significant amount of of Syrian territory and they did very unfairly and unjustifiedly destroy a lot of Syrian weapons and equipment immediately after the Assad regime fled. And as you said, just outside of of my window about that, to 300 meters away is the is the ministry of defense and there’s three very clear marks where the the building was destroyed from from Israeli attacks in June July of 2025.

And the the Israel has demonstrated its ability to conduct attacks here there’s also been attacks not far about three kilometers from here in the areas that was formerly controlled formerly dominated the residential and military areas could controlled by the Assad regime generals and senior officers.And there’s been quite a few strikes there that are believed have been conducted by Israel. So I think Israel has made it very clear that they can and will strike on targets if there’s something that concerns them in Syria. And I think what does what’s Israel’s long-term goal? well I think Israel’s long-term goal is they want peace. They want countries in the region that they might not be called allies, but they can at least not be threatened by them. Now, Syria and Israel have had a very long and contentious relationship since the formation of the israel Israeli state.

And I think yethat would be something that Israel would be angling towards. Right now, of course, Israel is very busy waging war in Palestine and in Lebanon. So I think Israel would be very pleased if they didn’t have to ratchet up their their engagement in Syria for the time being.

Anna Kummelstedt
Yeah, and moving back to look internally within the country, despite there being a lot of hope in Syria over 2025 about rebuilding the country, sectarian violence did remain and it is something we should talk about. And there were some key flashpoints like last March, the massacres against the Alawites on the coast, and then the conflict between the Druze and the Bedouins, sorry if I’m pronouncing that wrong, in the south, and then most recently, the conflict rising north from Homs, Aleppo, into the SDF Kurdish land. What do these episodes reveal about the state’s ability to control armed groups that normally fall under its authority?

Dominic Bowen
I think that’s critical. And we’ve touched on that a couple of times. So really glad we’ve come back to this to really finish that that circle. I mean, what happened in the coast, what happened in Sweda are really episodes or they’re proof points that really demonstrate that, , these aren’t just flare ups.

These aren’t just occasional incidents. These incidents where the state has not enforced discipline. And we have to be really clear on that. And if if we were if I was briefing the the government, I’d be saying exactly that. You have failed to control and enforce discipline amongst your forces or forces that you should be controlling. There is this risk in a current environment that we’re in Syria right now that that we we see where there’s this integration of of a variety of different forces. i mean, there was at least 25 different forces that were involved in removing the Assad regime in the late 2024.

But now they need to be absorbed and there needs to be vetting. There needs to be training. There needs to be accountability. And this vetting, training and accountability is something that still concerns me a little bit about how well and how good it is. , people might write this off and you might see some journalists write that, oh, , the sectarianism in Syria. No, it’s not about sectarianism. It’s about the state failed in its basic job to protect citizens equally and to punish perpetrators predictably.

And that’s what’s really, really needed. If Syria wants sovereignty, if Syria wants to manage its own resources, manage its own borders, then it needs to provide durable guarantees to its people.Promises that won’t be reversed and promises that can be kept through a strong security service, an effective ministry of interior and a leadership that that really stands behind its commitments for all Syrians, not just those that are aligned with its politics or ideology.

Anna Kummelstedt
Yeah, I think the idea of transitional justice has definitely been a key theme in Syria and accountability for the crimes during the Assad regime, but also in the last year. And I just want to just to dig a bit further on this idea of sectarian sectarianism in Syria. Because a couple of days after Al-Sharaa took control of Damascus, he sat down with Jeremy Bowen, the BBC’s Middle East correspondent, and he said, the old regime always played on sectarian divisions. We won’t. The revolution can contain everyone. And from what you see on the ground, is the state actually managing to transcend sectarianism or are these fractures simply re-emerging in new forms?

Dominic Bowen
That’s a really difficult question to to answer, but it’s an important one to to ask Anna. and so I think it’s a great question. I think the the state has done a good job. I’ve met with Sunnis, Shias, I’ve met with Christians since I’ve been here, and they’re all comfortable. They all have faith in the current leadership and they all have faith in the current government. and they’re all thistheir long-term plan it’s not we’ll wait and see it’s not all let’s just see how the current next few months are let’s wait and see what the constitution is they’re confident that this government is not just saying what everyone wants to hear but they’re starting to do what they say they’re going to do and that leaves me feeling feeling confident that that the future is going to be quite good here

And we need to see it. And, , yes, last summer there was those those horrible incidents on the coast and in Sweda, but there hasn’t been anything in the last seven or eight months, which might seem like a lot a short time for many of our listeners. But when we consider the huge amount of weapons and the huge amounts of pain that so many communities are feeling after 14 years of civil war, I think that is a significant period of time where the government has demonstrated that it isa credible force and is going to keep its word.

Anna Kummelstedt
Yeah, and i think there’s something very interesting that was said by the female cabinet minister in El Shahr’s government, the only female cabinet cabinet minister, but important to know that there is a female cabinet minister. And she said, mistakes happen in transition. So that it was always going to happen that there would be some flare-ups in violence. She also mentioned, we inherited a country which was completely destroyed and we’re working on laws to renew and adapt a new country. So it’s taking time. And I think it’s important to remember that these things do take time and they’re not going to happen overnight.

And there has been some steps taken towards accountability. Yes, there could be more done. But even with the massacres against the Alawites, that involved security forces that were part of Al-Sharaa’s government, they are now being held, there’s been trials set up, tribunals to hold them to keep them accountable, and no s Syrians can shy away from that. So I think though those’t those things shouldn’t be forgotten. Now let’s turn towards ISIS, a topic that keeps many foreign ministers are awake at night. According to UN estimates, ISIS has shrunk from 20,000 to 30,000 fighters in 2018 in Syria to roughly 3,000 to 5,000.Yet, as we saw in Palmyra in December, it remains capable deadly attacks. so Is ISIS just a residual insurgent threat or does Syria’s fragmented security landscape still give it room to grow and assert a territorial caliphate in the future?

Dominic Bowen
Yeah, one of the biggest concerns I have right now, and I think to be very clear, it is a low probability, but an extremely high impact, is that ISIS does affect an attack on a major city like Damascus or Aleppo or Tatous, but they do affect attack. we We see this in many countries around the world where terrorist organizations are able to infiltrate large cities and conduct big attacks.

We know, , there’s fantastic hotels here. There’s the Sheridan, there’s the Dharma Rose, there’s the Four Seasons, there’s fantastic hotels here. But when I look at it from a risk management and security point of view, These are very, very soft targets. And I’m not disclosing anything that’s secret here. Thisvery clear. These are really soft targets. And the ability, , we talk about, , they’re not they’re no longer the the power that they were. Yeah, there was a time when ISIS was controlling half of Iraq and over a third of Syria. I mean, these are huge, huge forces. Now, yes, it has shrunk significantly.

But I don’t think whether ISisgone or ISisback isactually the important point because it doesn’t need territory to be strategically disruptive. ISIS just needs permissive gaps. It needs grievance. It needs people to feel like they’ve been excluded. And at the end of the day, most attacks aren’t conducted with thousands of troops. They’re conducted by 5, 10, 15 people. So when we talk about, oh, there’s only 3,000 to 5,000 ISIS fighters left, that’s still more than enough to cause extreme havoc if they were to coordinate an attack.

Dominic Bowen
Now, I don’t think ISisabout to recreate the caliphate that really they had created back in 2014, 15 and 16. But I think the risk of them being an insurgency that does and can and probably will exploit moments in the transition is something that does continue to concern me and obviously does continue to concern intelligence and security agencies around the world.

Anna Kummelstedt
How significant was it that Al-Sharaa’s government joined the US-led coalition against ISIS?

Dominic Bowen
I think it was really important that that that President al-Shahar join that coalition. And I think that was a demonstration of his moderateness. But I also think if you look back in his history, yes, back in 2003, he joined al-Qaeda in Iraq. He spent years in prison. He then was aligned with or he led Jabhat al-Nusrand various other groups in northern Syria during the civil war. But his decisions continually led him further and further away from the most extreme elements. Yes, it was an Islamic opposition group that he was leading, but he was deliberately distancing himself and to quite significant danger as well when he distanced himself from some of these groups. So I think thisconsistent with who he is and what he thinks is reasonable in his moral compass. And I think that, , there is no risk at all of the Syrian government aligning itself with ISIS. They are very clearly against ISIS. And I think ISisprobably the biggest threat to the the Syrian state state today.

Anna Kummelstedt
One of the main topics that has been on the news regarding Syria in recent weeks has obviously been the northeast and the SDF forces. The ceasefire is now entering its first implementation phase. Syrian government forces have taken over most of the northeast. They’ve taken over strategic oil fields, the Takba da Dam, transferring it to state control. What are the most fragile pressure points that you see that could still cause this ceasefire, this integration to unravel?

Dominic Bowen
I mean, the Kurds largely are portrayed by most Western media outlets as as as the good guys, as these warriors that are standing up for for what’s right. I certainly think if you if you look back at history, , in the 1940s and 1950s, the Kurds probably should have been given their own state when the British and France were cutting up borders and deciding what the borders of Turkey and Syria and Lebanon and Jordan and Iraq were the Kurds missed out. And it sounds quite dismissive, but I think they really did. But 70 years later, thisthe international borders that we we have today.

And the kurds the Kurds in Turkey, the Kurds in Syria, and the Kurds in Iraq have been playing the same political machinations that most groups have been playing. I remember being in Kurdish controlled territory and in North northeastern Syria back in 2017 and 18. And literally from morning to night, during all your waking hours, there would just be this constant. And i’m I’m talking hundreds and thousands of fuel trucks just continually on the freeways from the Kurdish controlled areas to Damascus. They were happily willing, even though they were ostensibly fighting and seeking independence, they were selling oil to the Assad regime for financial gain.

Now, so they could run their state, so they could fund their military, justifiable reasons. But they were still supporting the the Assad regime with very cheap and very discounted oil. and What’s going to be really important now is that the it’s not just statements, but the Kurds actually get some constitutional guarantee. Whether it’s a federal system, whether they’re given some level of autonomy, that’s all to be decided. Whether they get some budget autonomy or budget authority. What language rights they have in practice when it comes to education and government systems and services in the northeast and northwest of the country. and what protection they’re going to have from retribution. Thisgoing to be really important because, , the executive degrees and agreements that have been signed the last couple of weeks, very important. But what’s going to matter is the constitution.

And so thisgoing to be really important that this is… sorted out soon and it’s effective. And that when we talk about long-term training and capacity building of security services, the military and the police, that the Kurds are included in that. They’re not treated as a second-rate police force or a second-rate government services. They’re getting the same treatments and that the Kurds in parts of Syria do receive quality services as well. That’s going to be critical to make sure that we do see peace reign throughout the country.

Anna Kummelstedt
Yeah, I think that’s going to be definitely a hot topic for Syria this year, not only how the Kurds fit into the constitution, but the constitutional development for Syria as a whole. But talking about this these constitutional guarantees for the Kurds, Kurdish rights, Al-Sharaa already issued some decrees declaring Kurdish as a national language, restoring citizenship to Kurds, recognising Noru’s as a national holiday, Many Kurds have welcomed this, but say that these executive degrees aren’t enough without constitutional guarantees, as you mentioned. So do you see this as a a genuine intent integration project and intent by Al-Sharaa, or is this a tactical move to consolidate control and the geographical integrity of Syria?

Dominic Bowen
In 2014, I was working every day surrounded by hundreds of Syrians and everyone back then was tired of the war and they just wanted peace. Fast forward 11 years to where we are today, 11 or 12 years to where we are today. And that’s exactly what everyone still wants. They just want peace. They just want consistency. Moving forward, many Syrians I’ve spoken to have also said democracy. We don’t even need democracy. We’re happy with a technocracy. We want good government. We don’t have to be involved in politics. and We just want to make sure we’ve got good leaders and good good services. And I think that’s going to be equally true for the for the Kurds. Yes, decrees are important, but we’re going to need to see a strong constitution and a strong government. Of course, unsurprising to our listeners, I’m a big fan of democracy. It’s not always it’s not always faultless, but it’s probably the best system I think that we’ve got out there.

But as we’ve seen in many countries, and it was the same when I was living in Iraq, many, many Iraqis said, we don’t want democracy. We just want good, stable governments. What we end up with in Syria, I think as long as the Syrian people have their say initially, and we end up with a a fair and reasonable government, I think that’s what’s needed and that underlined by a strong constitution and healthy relationships with with its neighbours and international community is going to be critical. And I think the president is that’s what he’s seeking. I think probably I’ve never met him.

But I feel fairly confident in saying he’s probably also pretty tired. He’s probably also pretty sick of conflict. And even though, yes, he’s he’ a politician, I’m guessing he also wants peace in Syria. And if that means conceding things to the Kurds, making peace with the Kurds, making peace or at least a tacit pause to to conflicts with with Israel, then I think that’s what he’s genuinely seeking.

Anna Kummelstedt
Who knows, maybe you’ll meet him on your next trip to Damascus whenever whenever that is. i guess to to wrap up and looking ahead and the future of Syria’s transition, Do you think the country is moving genuinely towards a shared political future? and I think as we’ve spoken about this constitutional element towards the end of this episode. I think a key question for me is how much separation will there be between religion and state? There was a big question, I guess, in Europe in the lead up to the Westphalian system. But yeah, what do you think that will be a separation of religion and state that will be enshrined into the constitution or what do you see happening?

Dominic Bowen
Yeah, I mean, the Treaty of Westphalia, what was that, 1648 in the 1600s? , that was critical because the popes and the church leaders were really interfering in politics in the same way that we see that occur in Iran. And as we know, that’s not really working too well in Iran for the for the population there. I’m not sure it’s the same issue in Iraq, in Jordan, and in Lebanon and Syria. And as a result, I’m less inclined to put my fist down and say, , it should be the Syrian Arab Republic or the Syrian Republic, or whether it is reasonable to ultimately call the country the the Syrian Islamic Republic or or a name similar to that. I’m less wedded or less concerned about that. Of course, I think something neutral, the Syrian Republic, would probably be the name that I would choose for, but it’s not my choice. I think that the Syrian people and the population and its elected officials, if they do go to elections, need to decide that. But it needs to be something that supports social cohesion and really leads to long-term peace. And that’s where I think the country’s going. As , and you’ve heard me say before, if, , I had a huge amount of capital, which I don’t, but if I did, , i’d be looking to invest in Ukraine. I think Ukraine is going to be a hugely powerful and positive country once they manage to achieve a peace. But similarly, i think Syria is a country that I’d be betting on. , i’d be I’m very excited to wind the clock forward 10, 15, 20 years to see what Syria is like. And I predict that I’ll have many more trips to Damascus in the coming years as more and more European companies want to understand what’s going on here.

Anna Kummelstedt
Maybe we’ll have another podcast episode in 10 years, looking back at some of the predictions we made. Well, Dominic, I thought that was a great conversation today and we unpacked a lot. but I’ve got one more question for you, probably the the most important one of of the day. what what’s on the What’s for dinner tonight? Any Syrian cuisine coming your way?

Dominic Bowen
It is only Syrian cuisine. It’s really, I think my meals are just, the food here is just absolutely amazing. Now I’m going to destroy the names, but certainly kibbeh is an almost staple for me now. Obviously hummus, mutabal is just fantastic for those that haven’t had it. The the roasted capsicand walnuts, obviously tavuk shish, chicken kebab.

Dominic Bowen
Then the adana kebab, which is lamb kebab. So the food here is absolutely fantastic. So much so I’m glad that our listeners can’t see below my chest because my stomach is certainly putting on weight during this trip. It’s been absolutely fantastic. And I do encourage people, , when the the time is right, buy a ticket, come to Damascus. The food is great. The people are friendly and the weather is absolutely fantastic. so So do make a trip here.

Anna Kummelstedt
I definitely wouldn’t mind a minder Syrian trauma. All right. Thank you very much.

Dominic Bowen
Thanks, Anna.

Dominic Bowen
Fantastic. Thanks very much for speaking today, Anna, and thanks very much for our listeners for for listening in.