Terrorism and International Risks: An Assessment

The dawn of 2025 was marked by a tragic act of terrorism in New Orleans USA. A lone attacker, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, drove a pickup truck into crowded Bourbon Street celebrations, killing fourteen people and injuring over thirty. The FBI’s investigation revealed Jabbar acted alone, inspired by the Islamic State’s (ISIS) Digital Caliphate – a stark reminder of how extremism has adapted to the digital age. This incident is emblematic of broader global trends, revealing key lessons about terrorism and the evolving international risk landscape.

The Evolving Threat of ISIS and the Digital Caliphate

Although ISIS’s territorial caliphate was dismantled in 2019, its ideological reach persists through the Digital Caliphate. The virtual world allows ISIS to disseminate propaganda, recruit sympathizers, and orchestrate attacks increasing the persistent international risks from this terrorist organisation. Unlike traditional terrorist networks, the Digital Caliphate thrives on decentralization, making it harder for authorities to detect and disrupt activities.

The New Orleans terrorist attack underscores the potency of online radicalization. It is assessed that Jabbar was self-radicalized, consuming extremist content on unregulated platforms. This modus operandi mirrors a growing trend of “lone wolf” attackers who act independently yet align ideologically with extremist groups. Such actors evade traditional counterterrorism models that rely on infiltrating networks or monitoring physical movements.

To combat this and mitigate these risks, policymakers must develop strategies that address the root causes of digital radicalization and associated risks. This includes strengthening oversight of online platforms, disrupting extremist networks, and promoting counter-narratives that dissuade individuals from engaging with extremist ideologies.

Global Patterns in Terrorism: Germany and Beyond

Recent events in Germany further illustrate the multifaceted nature of modern terrorism. In December 2024, the international risk of terrorism was again realised in Germany in a series of attacks highlighted the diverse threats facing Europe:

1. Magdeburg Christmas Market Attack: A Saudi Arabian national drove a vehicle into a crowded market, killing five and injuring over 200 people. The attacker’s background—a mix of anti-Islamic rhetoric and far-right ideologies—complicates traditional categorizations of terrorism.
2. Hospital Crossbow Attack: A fatal assault in Bad Zwesten revealed the unpredictability of unconventional weapons in terror incidents.
3. Foiled Terror Plots: German authorities arrested individuals linked to ISIS, demonstrating the persistent threat of organized terror cells operating within Europe.

These incidents underscore the importance of maintaining robust counterterrorism frameworks that address both traditional and emerging international risks. They also highlight the need for international cooperation, as terrorism transcends borders and thrives in environments of weak governance and limited oversight.

Lessons from ISIS’s Global Operations

Despite its diminished presence in the Middle East, ISIS remains active through its global affiliates. Regions like the Sahel, Afghanistan, and Southeast Asia have become hotspots for ISIS’s operations, fueled by local grievances and unstable political environments.

For instance, ISIS-Khorasan (IS-K) has demonstrated a sophisticated use of social media to recruit and radicalize individuals. Its tactics include targeting disaffected youth and leveraging local conflicts to bolster its ranks. Similarly, ISIS affiliates in the Sahel exploit weak state structures to expand their influence, often competing with other terrorist groups for dominance.

The resilience of these affiliates poses a dual challenge: addressing the immediate threat of violence while tackling the structural factors that enable their survival. This requires a combination of military, diplomatic, and development efforts aimed at stabilizing affected regions and countering extremist narratives.

Policy Implications for the United States and Europe

The New Orleans attack – like the December incidents in Germany – demonstrates the need for adaptive counterterrorism policies to mitigate these persistent risks. Key recommendations include:

1. Strengthening Digital Oversight: Governments must collaborate with tech companies to monitor and disrupt extremist activities online. This includes regulating unregulated platforms, enhancing digital literacy, and promoting responsible content moderation.
2. Enhancing Intelligence Sharing: International cooperation is critical for tracking and dismantling cross-border terror networks. This requires robust frameworks for intelligence sharing, joint operations, and capacity building.
3. Fostering Community Resilience: Counterterrorism efforts must go beyond law enforcement to include community engagement. Initiatives that address social and economic grievances can help prevent radicalization at its roots.
4. Investing in Technology: Advanced tools like artificial intelligence and predictive analytics can enhance the ability to identify and mitigate threats before they materialize. Governments should prioritize investments in such technologies to stay ahead of evolving threats.

Broader Trends in Terrorism and Counterterrorism

The nature of terrorism has shifted significantly over the past decade. Traditional hierarchical organisations have given way to decentralized networks and independent actors. This evolution challenges conventional counterterrorism models and demands a more nuanced approach to mitigate the risks.

Additionally, geopolitical factors play a crucial role in shaping the global terrorism landscape. For example, Iran’s strategic use of ISIS as a justification for its regional activities complicates efforts to combat extremism. By portraying itself as a bulwark against ISIS, Iran masks its broader ambitions, including its support for proxy groups and destabilizing activities in Iraq and Syria.

Conclusion

As 2025 unfolds, the global community faces a complex and evolving terrorism threat. Incidents like the New Orleans attack and Germany’s December assaults highlight the need for adaptive and collaborative counterterrorism strategies. Policymakers must address the root causes of extremism, enhance digital oversight, and invest in innovative technologies to protect communities and mitigate risks.

The fight against terrorism is far from over. By understanding the shifting dynamics of extremism and leveraging collective expertise, the international community can build a safer and more resilient future.