Episode 260: BRICS and the Economic Role of Emerging Global Powers with Yaroslav Lissovolik

Coordinated and Produced by Elisa Garbil

In this episode Dominic Bowen and Yaroslav Lissovolik dive into the challenges and opportunities of BRICS! Find out more about the economic Asymmetries and power dynamics, consensus and decision-making, future strategies, BRICS’ role in global governance, Russia’s position, future cooperation, BRICS plus, international risks and opportunities, and more!

Yaroslav Lissovolik worked in the International Monetary Fund, in Washington, where he was Advisor to the Executive Director for the Russian Federation (2001–2004). In 2004 he joined Deutsche Bank as Chief Economist and became Head of Company Research in Russia in 2009, and then a member of the Management Board of Deutsche Bank in Russia in 2011. In 2015–2018 Yaroslav Lissovolik was Chief Economist and subsequently Managing Director of Research and Member of the Management Board at the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). From 2018 to 2022 he has been Senior Managing Director — Head of Research at Sberbank Investment Research (CIB). In 2023 he founded BRICS+ Analyticsto conduct in-depth research on the future trajectories of BRICS+ development.   

Yaroslav Lissovolik graduated from Harvard University (magna cum laude) with a BA degree in Economics, and received an MSc in Economics degree from the London School of Economics (LSE). He also received his PhD degree in Economics from the Moscow State Institute for International Relations (MGIMO, red diploma) and a Doctorate in Economics from the Diplomatic Academy. Yaroslav Lissovolik is also a member of Bretton Woods Committee.  He has published several books and numerous papers on Russia’s entry into the WTO, BRICS and other economic policy issues.

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Transcript:

[00:00:00]
Dominic Bowen: And, yes. I think this is something that is a stabilizing factor, not just for the global economy—this greater South-South cooperation—but also for developed economies in terms of migration, investment, and trade.

Elisa Garbil: Welcome back to the International Risk Podcast, where we discuss the latest world news and significant events that impact businesses and organizations worldwide.

Dominic Bowen: Hi, I’m Dominic Bowen, host of the International Risk Podcast, and today we are diving into the fault lines within BRICS and the global community. This is an ambitious but potentially fragmented bloc seeking to reshape global governance, including countries like Iran, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.

The BRICS Plus now spans what many would view as autocracies, fragile economies, and powerful energy states. But does that make it a serious alternative to the G7? To unpack that, we are joined by Yaroslav Lissovolik.

[00:01:00]
Dominic Bowen: Yaroslav founded the BRICS Plus Analytics firm to conduct in-depth research on the future trajectories of BRICS Plus development. He has worked for the IMF as advisor to the executive director for Russia, was chief economist at Deutsche Bank, head of company research in Russia, chief economist and managing director at the Eurasian Development Bank, and is a member of the Bretton Woods Committee.

Dominic Bowen: Yaroslav, welcome to the International Risk Podcast.

Yaroslav Lissovolik: Thank you so much, Dominic. It’s a pleasure.

[00:02:00]
Dominic Bowen: Over the past two years, we’ve seen a significant push from BRICS leaders, particularly China and Russia, towards de-dollarization and financial sovereignty. Talk of a shared BRICS currency or trade in local currency has been framed as a counterbalance to US economic dominance.

Given the economic asymmetries among BRICS members—China with capital surpluses, Russia and Saudi Arabia as commodity-dependent exporters, and heavily indebted states like Egypt and Ethiopia—how realistic is a unified BRICS currency, or is this more about de-dollarization?

[00:03:00]
Yaroslav Lissovolik: The idea of a common BRICS currency is on the back burner due to political disagreements. The focus now is on increasing national currency use in mutual transactions and developing payment infrastructure. The rise of South-South trade further supports this.

A unified currency, such as a digital or physical currency, would require greater preparation and agreement. Currently, all payment modes—including the dollar—remain acceptable, with national currencies serving as an additional option.

[00:06:00]
Dominic Bowen: China accounts for over 70% of BRICS GDP and often shapes BRICS agendas, which creates potential friction with members like Brazil and India. Smaller members like Ethiopia and Iran further complicate the balance of power. How can BRICS institutionalize decision-making to protect smaller members’ voices?

[00:07:00]
Yaroslav Lissovolik: BRICS operates on a consensus principle. If any core member opposes an initiative, it is not implemented. The BRICS Plus initiative, launched by China in 2017, illustrates the difficulty of achieving continuity amid differing member priorities.

With expansion, reaching consensus becomes harder. Mechanisms under discussion include forming a secretariat or adopting a Troika system, similar to the G20, and using a “plural lateral” approach where only some members pursue initiatives.

[00:12:00]
Dominic Bowen: Diversity is a strength but also a source of potential paralysis. Democracies like South Africa and Brazil coexist with autocracies like China, Russia, and Iran. What mechanisms could help resolve policy disagreements across divergent political systems?

[00:13:00]
Yaroslav Lissovolik: Ministerial and expert-level meetings exist across sectors—foreign affairs, health, and more. China also emphasizes “people-to-people” exchanges to build understanding over the medium to long term.

[00:14:00]
Dominic Bowen: BRICS Plus members advocate reforms for more equitable global governance, including IMF and World Bank expansion. Do you see BRICS as challenging the existing global order or complementing it?

[00:15:00]
Yaroslav Lissovolik: BRICS is complementary. Summit declarations support institutions like the WTO, IMF, and World Bank, while advocating for greater representation of developing countries. BRICS also cooperates with the New Development Bank on projects, reinforcing existing multilateral frameworks.

[00:18:00]
Dominic Bowen: Russia faces sanctions and financial restrictions. Could this undermine BRICS’ credibility in advocating new financial systems?

Yaroslav Lissovolik: Economically, Russia has strong macroeconomic policies, with fiscal and monetary discipline. Over time, gradual liberalization and integration into global financial flows can strengthen BRICS. The evolutionary approach, seen with China, is key.

[00:20:00]
Dominic Bowen: Critics argue Russia uses BRICS as a geopolitical lifeboat. Could it hijack BRICS’ original development goals?

Yaroslav Lissovolik: BRICS facilitates South-South trade and investment, benefiting both developing economies and Russia. It allows Russia and other members to diversify trade geographically and tap into fast-growing markets with high import duties and trade barriers, offering significant opportunities.

[00:24:00]
Dominic Bowen: Countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa maintain ties with the West while participating in BRICS. Could political divergences, military actions, and governance differences cause fractures?

Yaroslav Lissovolik: Diversity is a strength. India, Brazil, and South Africa can bridge global South and developed world cooperation. I foresee a “BRICS Plus Plus” format that engages regional blocks of developed economies for broader dialogue.

[00:28:00]
Dominic Bowen: Regional cooperation is increasingly shaping trade liberalization. Could regional integration blocks serve as a platform for global coordination?

Yaroslav Lissovolik: Absolutely. Platforms for regional integration, trade, and development institutions can complement BRICS, contributing to global financial stability and addressing climate and development challenges.

[00:31:00]
Dominic Bowen: How are new BRICS Plus members selected?

Yaroslav Lissovolik: Criteria include alignment with BRICS values, regional leadership, and representation across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Future expansion may focus on balancing these regions further.

[00:35:00]
Dominic Bowen: What are the biggest internal risks for BRICS in the next decade?

Yaroslav Lissovolik: Key risks include the need for pragmatic economic policies, better coordination on trade and finance, slow operationalization of the CRA mechanism, and potential overstretch in expansion. China-India relations remain crucial.

[00:38:00]
Dominic Bowen: What international risks concern you the most?

Yaroslav Lissovolik: Pandemics revealed weaknesses in global coordination. Engaging regional integration and financial institutions can improve resilience. Emerging mediators like the UAE play increasingly important roles in dispute resolution.

[00:39:00]
Dominic Bowen: Thank you, Yaroslav, for your insights.

Yaroslav Lissovolik: Thank you, Dominic. It’s been a pleasure.

[00:39:30]
Dominic Bowen: That was Yaroslav Lissovolik, founder of BRICS Plus Analytics. Today we explored BRICS’ role in the global south, economic integration, and multilateral cooperation.

Elisa Garbil: Thank you for listening. Visit internationalriskpodcast.com for more episodes, articles, and updates. Follow us on LinkedIn, BlueSky, and Instagram.