Evolution of Warfare: An Analysis of Ukraine’s Use of Drones and Increasing Presence in North Africa. 

As Ukraine enters its third year of active conflict against Russia’s illegal invasion in 2022, and the world prepares for the impact of a second Trump presidency, a shift in the battlefield is unfolding and the international risks remain at the forefront of everyones’ minds. Despite being outmatched in size and military resources, the latest news reports outline Ukraine’s successful deployment of drones and long-range missiles to achieve asymmetric impact. A strategy that has prolonged Ukraine’s defence against an invasion that Putin once believed would conclude in just three days. This follows Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo’s recent detention of the Eagle S and its crew, suspected of ties to Russia’s shadow fleet and involvement in damaging undersea infrastructure. This incident brought to light the broader international risks of this conflict, including hybrid warfare, and the importance of effective governance and risk management to stop the Kremlin, and ensure the security of NATO members. Together, these developments mark a new era of warfare defined by innovation and strategic adaptability. 

Ukraine Missile Attack in Russia

Ukraine’s Successful Implementation of Drones: 

On January 13th, Kyiv launched the “largest attack of the war so far”. They employed drones and long range missiles to successfully strike targets in Engels, Saratov, Kazan, Bryansk, and Tula, leading to flight disruptions across Russia. Signifcant damage was caused to a munitons storage facility in Russia’s Saratov region and in Tula the strike caused a large fire at the Aleksinsky chemical plant. This is the latest of a series of strategic advancements Ukraine has obtained since NATO gave it permission to deploy long-range missiles deep into Russian territory. While this is a definite strategic gain from Ukraine, Putin’s defense ministry reported that its forces intercepted nearly 150 drones beyond the so-called “special military operation” zone, the term Moscow uses to describe its prescence inside Ukrainian borders. Furthermore, Russia controls about one-fifth of Ukraine, a price they paid with high losses of troops and equipment. The war’s trajectory is not in Ukraine’s favor yet, but their deployment of hybrid warfare tactics has given them a reason to hope. Ukraine continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience and ingenuity, with revolutionary advancements in drone technology playing a critical role in its fight against Russia. However, Moscow’s ability to absorb losses in both troops and equipment due to its larger population and resource base poses a long-term challenge for Ukraine. The country’s ability to potentially win a war by attrition depends on continued Western support in the form of military assistance and advanced technological support. Zelensky must ensure he gets an agreement from Trump that promises US involvement in this. A fact he understands all too well given his recent visit to Trump tower.  

Why NATO Members Should Continue Aid to Ukraine

Our recent guest Doug Livermore, Senior Vice President of Solution Engineering at CenCore and Deputy Commander in The United States Army, has continuously emphasised the obligation NATO has, including the US, in their continued support for Ukraine. In a recent Linkedln post he stated: “every destroyed Russian system weakens not just its ability to wage war against Ukraine, but also its capacity to threaten NATO forces in the long term. By targeting and degrading these advanced air defence systems, Ukraine is providing an invaluable service to its allies, forcing Russia to burn through resources and diminishing its ability to project power.” Livermore’s observations highlight how Ukraine’s efforts to disrupt Russian military systems extend beyond its borders, playing a critical role in safeguarding the broader stability of NATO allies. 

The gravity of these comments are amplified when you consider Russia’s clear attempts to aggrevate NATO members by using The Eagle S to damage key underwater infrastructure, the latest in a series of incidents in recent years, in which underwater cables in the Baltic region have been either damaged or severed completely. The repurcussions of this can lead to operational downtime, increased costs, and weakened supply chain efficiency.  While Prime Minister Petteri Orpo’s did detain the ship and it’s crew, many have called out NATO for not being tough enough. Marko Mihkelson, the chair of the Estonian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, told NPR  that he would “like to see more robust action from the side of NATO. We said after the NATO membership of Sweden and Finland, that the Baltic Sea is like a NATO lake. Is it?” If NATO fails to adequatley respond to a clear attack on their territory and allows Ukraine to fall into Putin’s hands what is stopping him and his allies (China and Iran) from launching a full scale attack. By targeting vital infrastructure, Russia aims to exploit vulnerabilities in NATO’s operational framework, emphasising the urgent need for coordinated defence strategies. As Ukraine continues to degrade Russia’s resources and capacity, its actions serve not only as a defensive measure but as a strategic counterbalance to Kremlin aggression, reinforcing the security of the entire alliance. For a better understanding of please listen toThe International Risks of Russian Influence in Africa

In our discussion with Doug we touch on insights from his time in Africa and how Russia’s expanding presence on the continent adds yet another dimension to the growing geopolitical tensions. Over the past decade, Moscow has strategically increased its influence in the region through arms deals, mining ventures, and military partnerships with fragile states. The Washington Institute has cited the most immediate threat to NATO in North Africa is the growing alliance between Putin and General Khalifa Hafar, commander of the so-called Libyan National Army (LNA). This has enabled Russia to use air bases and ports in Haftar-controlled areas of eastern Libya to unload weapons and materiel heading for the Sahel, thereby threatening NATO’s southern flank.Wagner Group mercenaries, operating under Kremlin directives, have been instrumental in propping up these authoritarian regimes in exchange for access to critical resources such as gold and diamonds. These activities not only destabilise local governments but also provide Russia with leverage on the global stage, threatening Western interests.

Doug LIvermore on the International Risk Podcast discussing Russia
Doug Livermore on the International Risk Podcast discussing Russia and hybrid warfare

This foothold in Africa allows Russia to circumvent sanctions and sustain its economy during the costly war in Ukraine. Moreover, it provides Moscow with an additional avenue to exert pressure on NATO members. For instance, by disrupting global supply chains or fueling conflicts in regions vital to European stability, Russia can distract and divide Western efforts to support Ukraine and counter its aggression in the Baltic region.

NATO’s response to Russia’s activities in Africa and the Baltic Sea must therefore be decisive and unified. The Kremlin’s hybrid warfare strategy—combining conventional military tactics with cyberattacks, infrastructure sabotage, and disinformation campaigns—demonstrates its willingness to exploit vulnerabilities wherever they exist. A lack of coordinated action risks emboldening Russia to continue its provocations, whether through its shadow fleet in European waters or its destabilising actions across the African continent.

The Case for Continued NATO Support to Ukraine

Ukraine’s role in countering Russian aggression extends far beyond its own borders. By resisting the Kremlin’s advances, Ukraine acts as a bulwark against the spread of Moscow’s influence into NATO territories and beyond. However, the country cannot stand alone. Continued military aid, technological support, and diplomatic backing from NATO allies are essential to ensuring that Ukraine remains a strong line of defence.

The stakes could not be higher. If Russia is allowed to consolidate its gains in Ukraine, the implications for NATO’s security and global stability are dire. From the Baltic Sea to Africa, Moscow’s strategy of sowing discord and testing Western resolve is clear. A unified and robust response is not just a moral imperative but a strategic necessity. Ukraine’s innovative use of drones, its resilience in the face of overwhelming odds, and its commitment to defending democratic values demonstrate why its success is vital to the security of the West. By continuing to support Ukraine, NATO not only strengthens its own security but also sends a powerful message to adversaries like China and Iran that Western alliances remain unshaken in the face of aggression.

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