The Democratic Wave: Is President Trump losing status and will that matter on November 3rd?

On the 23rd of September, Marist Poll published their findings on public opinion ahead of when voters will cast their ballot on November 3rd. For President Donald Trump and the White House, the current predictions are certainly not in their favour. Amongst registered voters the polls currently show the Democratic Party leading by 12 points in Congress. More concerningly for the Republican party, on the highest priority issues, such as the handling of the economy, foreign policy, and gas prices, the Democrats are favoured. Perhaps most significantly, they have now even polled higher on handling immigration. It is becoming clear that moods have begun to shift since 2024. 

In the 2026 Midterms all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, whilst 30 of the Senate seats remain open to re-election. Although it is not uncommon for polls to suggest unsettling Midterm predictions for the incumbent party at the time, in fact historically they tend to perform worse, is this a suggestion that Trump’s popularity is now critically under threat? 

President Trump, during his 12th Cabinet meeting in May (since victory in 2024), proclaimed “I don’t care about the Midterms”. This stance may have seemed to change in recent months given his announcements of paying every adult American $5000 if the Republicans won both chambers in Congress and the Myrtle Beach speech urging voters to “pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot. Just come and vote. It’s so important,”. However, this may not work in the President’s favour come November. According to a recent article published by The Economist, Trump’s approval ratings are at a historic low since his first presidential term. He now faces a disapproval rating of 61%, -26 down. It is important to note that from pollster to commentator to media outlet, the consensus on exactly how unpopular Trump has become does vary. However, one thing is clear. Republicans are worried. With some outlets suggesting Trump is less popular amongst the public than Biden’s lowest point, perhaps it is unsurprising more Republicans in competitive races are distancing themselves from the President. 

Signs of concern are beginning to show. Multiple references to Trump have been removed from Florida’s Republican Governor candidate Byron Donalds’ campaign page, as competition increases between him and David Jolly. Kansas, a state which has not swung blue in nearly a century, recently saw Vice President J.D. Vance campaigning due to a potentially tightening race between Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton and Roger Marshall. Trump has also received criticism from Florida Representative, María Elvira Salazar stating his immigration enforcement had “gone too far”. 

It is clear no organised revolt is occurring, yet some candidates have begun to break off on certain topics. A core issue that seems to be aiding the Democrats odds, is the war in Iran. Both Mike Rogers and Ashely Hinson, the Republican candidates for the Senate election in Michigan and Iowa respectively, issued statements calling for an end to the war in September. Moreover, six Republican Representatives have voted to support efforts in constraining the conflict and “limit the president’s war powers”.

Trump campaigned on the notion he would end US involvement abroad, his victory speech in 2024 including “I’m going to stop wars”. In February of 2026, the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran resulting in the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. Iran’s retaliation alongside subsequent strikes was restricting commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in traffic falls of 80%. By April, a provisional ceasefire was in place which ensured a temporary reopening of the crucial strait where around one fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply flows through. With several actions such as blockades enacted and international uncertainty, it was clear by July the ceasefire was over with both Iran and the US re-exchanging escalating strikes. As of today the war continues, which for many signals that the June Memorandum of Understanding signed in Islamabad fell short. Trump recently rejected an Iranian proposal with terms to reopen the Strait. Matters for the President have only been made trickier due to Yemen’s Houthis intensified attacks and recent seizure of coastal stretches including the Bab al-Mandab Strait. 

However it is not this change in circumstances or so-called ‘broken promises’, that has arguably created the polling stir we are seeing weeks before the Midterms. Voters appear more concerned about amounting costs. According to the American Automobile Assn. on September 18th the average national gas price reached $4.48 for a gallon, $1.27 up from the previous year. As USPollingData suggests, “Economic conditions are the single most powerful predictor of midterm election outcomes” and confidence in this will dictate where the cross is placed on the ballot more than any other issue. Inflation concerns persist with many of this year’s primaries campaigning on the basis of fighting for an improved cost of living. Consumer confidence is reported to have dropped 7.2 points in March 2025 following further tariff announcements.This was the largest decline in a month since the pandemic crash. As USPollingData continues, the key warning sign for this election lies in the 42/58 figure. With only 42% rating the economy positively, this could provide the open door for Democrats to regain a stronger position in Congress. Historically, every incumbent president’s party has lost House seats since 1974 when the economy polls below 50%. 

For now, the outcome still remains entirely undecided. For Democrats, regaining a majority in the House of Representatives seems a more feasible outcome, as the Senate would require four seats to be taken from Republicans where Trump claimed victory in 2024. Additionally, as YouGov Poll published in July “34% of registered voters say they approve of Trump and will vote Republican, while 6% disapprove of Trump and will vote Republican”. It seems that disapproval of Trump may not be enough to change voters from red to blue. 

Regardless which direction the outcome swings, the 2026 US Midterms will be pivotal for the remaining years of Trump’s presidency, the direction the Republican party decides to take, and how risks facing the international community continue to be handled.