Understanding the 764 Network: A Risk-Based Threat Assessment

Written by Elisa Garbil – 09.02.2025 The 764 network represents a multifaceted and evolving online threat that combines violent extremism, systematic exploitation, and the coercive manipulation of vulnerable individuals, unfortunately, including minors. Emerging from seemingly innocuous origins in an online community, the network has developed into a decentralised, transnational ecosystem of splinter groups that engage in criminal…

From AI to Bullion: What Gold Tells Us About Market Risks in 2025

From AI to Bullion: What Gold Tells Us About Market Risks in 2025

For the past decade, gold appeared as a relic of an outdated financial era. In a world of technology stocks, cryptocurrencies, and AI growth narratives, a metal that produces no yield and stays in vaults seemed less relevant. Nevertheless, in 2025, gold has returned to the centre of the stage, trading above $4,000 an ounce…

Behavioural Risk as a Systemic Threat: Governance, Culture, and the Hidden Architecture of Organisational Failure

Behavioural Risk as a Systemic Threat: Governance, Culture, and the Hidden Architecture of Organisational Failure

Written by Elisa Garbil – 02.02.2025 Risk management has traditionally focused on quantifiable exposures: market volatility, credit defaults, operational breakdowns, and compliance breaches. Yet across sectors, repeated organisational failures demonstrate that these events are rarely isolated technical accidents. Instead, they emerge from behavioural patterns that shape how individuals interpret incentives, respond to pressure, exercise judgement, and normalise…

The Dollar, Sanctions, and the Limits of Monetary Power

The Dollar, Sanctions, and the Limits of Monetary Power

The US dollar remains the central pillar of the global financial system. It dominates cross-border payments, underpins trade invoicing, and accounts for the majority of official foreign exchange reserves. Yet in recent years, debates about the durability of dollar dominance have intensified, driven by the expanded use of financial sanctions, the emergence of digital currencies,…

After Maduro: Power, Illicit Economies, and the Unravelling of Venezuela’s Political Order

After Maduro: Power, Illicit Economies, and the Unravelling of Venezuela’s Political Order

The capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro by the United States forces on the 3rd of January 2026 marks one of the most dramatic geopolitical events in the Western Hemisphere in decades. However, as stressed by both our host, Dominic Bowen, and our guest, Dr. Brian Fonseca in this episode of the International Risk Podcast,…

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Right-Wing Extremism: A Multidimensional Threat Assessment

Written by Elisa Garbil – 26.01.2025 Right-wing extremism is a persistent and evolving threat that manifests across multiple social, institutional, and digital contexts. Unlike general criminal activity, right-wing extremism is ideologically driven, rooted in exclusionary nationalism, racial or ethnic supremacy, anti-immigration sentiment, and conspiratorial frameworks. Its influence extends beyond isolated acts of violence, affecting institutional integrity, societal…

Afghanistan After the Exit: Security Myths, Gender Apartheid, and the Costs of Walking Away

Afghanistan After the Exit: Security Myths, Gender Apartheid, and the Costs of Walking Away

When Afghanistan made international headlines again in August 2021, the country was often pictured as an ending: the end of a twenty-year intervention, the end of Western responsibility, the end of a failed state-building experiment. Is it really? As Dominic Bowen argues in The International Risk Podcast, Afghanistan is not a closed chapter, and still…

Global Disorder and the Limits of the Rules-Based International Order

Global Disorder and the Limits of the Rules-Based International Order

The defining feature of today’s international system is not the emergence of a new balance of power, but the absence of a shared framework through which power is exercised. Rather than transition, the system is characterised by fragmentation, uncertainty, and weak consensus over rules, norms, and responsibilities. In a recent episode of The International Risk…

Grey Zones at Europe’s Edge: Ceuta, Melilla and Maritime Power

Grey Zones at Europe’s Edge: Ceuta, Melilla and Maritime Power

How two small Spanish cities on Africa’s coast expose bigger problems in migration, sovereignty, and maritime power Ceuta and Melilla embody anticonformism in the geopolitical order as two beautiful Spanish cities situated on the African continent. Yet they sit at the centre of Europe’s most complicated border politics. In practice, they are more than enclaves:…

Synthetic Biology, Global Risks and Benefits, and the Future of Engineering Life

Synthetic Biology, Global Risks and Benefits, and the Future of Engineering Life

Synthetic biology is increasingly recognised as one of the most consequential technological domains shaping global risk in the coming decade, with major implications highlighted in recent reports by the OECD and other international policy bodies. Advances in biological engineering are already transforming medicine, industrial production, and climate innovation, a trajectory documented in futures‑oriented assessments of…