Aerial shot of a harvester working a cornfield in rural Austin, MN during fall season.

Food Security and Systemic Resilience: Preparing for Cascading Risks in Modern Food Systems

Food security is frequently treated as a domestic policy metric: a function of agricultural output, food prices, and household purchasing power. Yet, in an era defined by dense global trade networks and digitally mediated supply chains, national food systems operate as interdependent nodes within a transnational system. Producers, maritime corridors, energy markets and regulatory authorities…

Hypersonic Missiles and Global Strategy: Implications for Hegemony, Arms Control, and Systemic Security

Hypersonic Missiles and Global Strategy: Implications for Hegemony, Arms Control, and Systemic Security

Hypersonic missiles are typically defined as a missile which travels at Mach 5 and above for a sustained period of time and is manoeuvrable during its flight within the Earth’s atmosphere. While speed is often the headline feature, it is the combination of velocity, manoeuvrability, and atmospheric flight that distinguishes these systems from traditional ballistic…

Iran Under Pressure: Sanctions, Stagnation, and the Limits of Economic Coercion

Iran Under Pressure: Sanctions, Stagnation, and the Limits of Economic Coercion

Iran has faced more than a decade of sustained economic pressure. Inflation has remained above 40 percent. The rial has experienced repeated episodes of sharp depreciation. Oil exports, once the central pillar of state revenue, have been significantly constrained by sanctions. From the outside, it looks like a system in permanent crisis. Yet despite these…

BRICS 2025: A Risk-Based Assessment of Brazil’s Presidency and Strategic Transitions

BRICS 2025: A Risk-Based Assessment of Brazil’s Presidency and Strategic Transitions

Written by Elisa Garbil – 18.02.2025 The Rise of BRICS as a Strategic Actor The BRICS, formally composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, hence the name BRICS, and expanded in recent years to include additional members such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Iran, now represents a significant portion of…

A large crowd gathers in a city square waving Syrian flags during a protest.

Syria’s Shifting Identity and Political Landscape

Syria is often examined primarily through the angle of geopolitics, armed conflict, and regional power competition. Yet one of the most consequential, and comparatively underexplored, dimensions of the Syrian crisis concern identity: how Syrian identity was historically constructed, how it fragmented under the pressures of war, and whether it can be meaningfully reconstituted in a…

Understanding the 764 Network: A Risk-Based Threat Assessment

Understanding the 764 Network: A Risk-Based Threat Assessment

Written by Elisa Garbil – 09.02.2025 The 764 network represents a multifaceted and evolving online threat that combines violent extremism, systematic exploitation, and the coercive manipulation of vulnerable individuals, unfortunately, including minors. Emerging from seemingly innocuous origins in an online community, the network has developed into a decentralised, transnational ecosystem of splinter groups that engage in criminal…

From AI to Bullion: What Gold Tells Us About Market Risks in 2025

From AI to Bullion: What Gold Tells Us About Market Risks in 2025

For the past decade, gold appeared as a relic of an outdated financial era. In a world of technology stocks, cryptocurrencies, and AI growth narratives, a metal that produces no yield and stays in vaults seemed less relevant. Nevertheless, in 2025, gold has returned to the centre of the stage, trading above $4,000 an ounce…

Behavioural Risk as a Systemic Threat: Governance, Culture, and the Hidden Architecture of Organisational Failure

Behavioural Risk as a Systemic Threat: Governance, Culture, and the Hidden Architecture of Organisational Failure

Written by Elisa Garbil – 02.02.2025 Risk management has traditionally focused on quantifiable exposures: market volatility, credit defaults, operational breakdowns, and compliance breaches. Yet across sectors, repeated organisational failures demonstrate that these events are rarely isolated technical accidents. Instead, they emerge from behavioural patterns that shape how individuals interpret incentives, respond to pressure, exercise judgement, and normalise…

The Dollar, Sanctions, and the Limits of Monetary Power

The Dollar, Sanctions, and the Limits of Monetary Power

The US dollar remains the central pillar of the global financial system. It dominates cross-border payments, underpins trade invoicing, and accounts for the majority of official foreign exchange reserves. Yet in recent years, debates about the durability of dollar dominance have intensified, driven by the expanded use of financial sanctions, the emergence of digital currencies,…

After Maduro: Power, Illicit Economies, and the Unravelling of Venezuela’s Political Order

After Maduro: Power, Illicit Economies, and the Unravelling of Venezuela’s Political Order

The capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro by the United States forces on the 3rd of January 2026 marks one of the most dramatic geopolitical events in the Western Hemisphere in decades. However, as stressed by both our host, Dominic Bowen, and our guest, Dr. Brian Fonseca in this episode of the International Risk Podcast,…