Explore our in-depth articles and expert analysis on global risks, geopolitical shifts, and emerging threats. Dive deeper into the complex topics explored in our show with thought-provoking content on international risk management.
When missiles strike refineries and cities burn, the damage is measured in casualties and territory. Far less visible is another front line: the atmosphere. In the first 14 days of the conflict involving Iran, an estimated 5 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions were released, roughly comparable to the annual footprint of a small state, and…
Conflict has traditionally been understood as a transition from peace to war, defined by identifiable actors, geographic boundaries, and military engagements. Increasingly, however, this framework is becoming difficult to sustain. Contemporary conflict is less a discrete event and more a continuous process unfolding across multiple domains simultaneously, from military operations and cyber activity to financial…
Written by Edward Penrose – 24.04.2026 For security leaders, policymakers, and risk professionals, the most dangerous mistake today is to assume that terrorism is receding simply because some of its older forms have weakened. Terrorism is not disappearing; instead, it is mutating. What analysts previously perceived as a relatively bounded problem of distinct organisations and…
When ransomware shuts down a pipeline, exposes hospital data, or forces a local authority offline, the disruption is often framed as a technical failure. In reality, these incidents represent the visible edge of something far more structured: a global criminal economy that increasingly mirrors the organisation of legitimate industry. Ransomware has evolved from opportunistic hacking…
Climate change is no longer a distant or abstract risk in the context of global security. It is actively reshaping the physical environment in which military systems operate, altering the reliability of infrastructure, and introducing new forms of uncertainty into strategic decision-making. As Dr Florian Krampe of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) argues…
Violent crime in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has for decades imposed a heavy toll on lives and economic performance. Outside of active war zones, the region remains the most violent in the world, accounting for roughly one-third of global homicides despite just 8% of the global population. The economic consequences are equally severe….
For years, disinformation has been framed primarily as a political or media problem, associated with election interference, bot networks, and foreign influence campaigns. It is often treated as something external to core systems. It is portrayed as an issue for platforms, regulators, or communications teams to manage. Yet this framing obscures a more complex and…
For years, organised crime in Mexico has been framed primarily through the lens of drug trafficking. Cartels are often portrayed as singular entities competing for control over narcotics routes into the United States, with violence understood as a by-product of this competition. Yet this framing obscures a more complex and evolving reality. As David Mora,…
AI is rapidly becoming a central axis of economic transformation, corporate strategy, and geopolitical risk. What began as experimentation with generative tools has evolved into a full-scale reconfiguration of how firms invest, operate, and compete. In a recent episode of the International Risk Podcast, host Dominic Bowen spoke with Craig Unsworth, a portfolio Chief Product…
Written by Edward Penrose – 01.04.2026 For defence leaders across Europe and North America, Canada has become an unusually revealing test case. The question is no longer simply whether Ottawa will spend more on defence. The harder question is whether a middle power can remain credible inside NATO while reducing dangerous overdependence on the United States. That…
