Episode 283: Humanitarian Crisis in the Sahel with Dr. Jessica Moody

Coordinated and Produced by Elisa Garbil

The Sahel stands at a crossroad, it is torn by crisis, instability, and shifting power. Join Dr. Jessica Moody and Dominic Bowen as they dive deep into the region’s unfolding humanitarian emergency. What does ECOWAS’s withdrawal mean for the people? How is Russian influence rewriting the rules? And why are jihadist groups gaining ground? From Bamako’s frontlines to the corridors of power, this is your inside look at the struggles shaping the Sahel’s future!

Dr. Jessica Moody is a political risk, due diligence and peacebuilding consultant in West Africa. She conducts open source and on the ground research into political, economic and security developments in West Africa and provides timely forecasts as well as scenario planning to clients, enabling them to better plan their operations. She also provides detailed insights into key personalities across West Africa, to enable businesses to understand power structures and who they should prioritise engagement with.

Jessica has worked in and on West Africa for more than a decade, during which she has consulted for an array of organisations ranging from S&P Global to Horizon Engage to the United States Institute of Peace. Having spent time living and working in Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire and Mali, she has an extensive range of local contacts in government and the private sector across the region. Jessica has a BA hons degree in History from the University of Nottingham, an MSc in International Relations from the London School of Economics and a PhD in War Studies, focusing on Cote d’Ivoire from King’s College London. She is the author of Life After War: Lessons in Human Centered Peacebuilding from Cote d’Ivoire (London, Bloomsbury) – forthcoming in May 2026.

The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.

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Transcript:

Dr. Jessica Moody [00:00:00]: When we look at jihadist recruitment in the Sahel, for the vast majority of cases, it has nothing to do with religious extremism. You’d be hard-pressed to find someone in the Sahel who would say they joined a jihadist group because they believed in establishing a caliphate. Most people join jihadist groups because they are fearful, lack employment opportunities, or are in precarious situations.

Elisa Garbil [00:00:25]: Welcome back to the International Risk Podcast, where we discuss the latest world news and significant events that impact businesses and organizations worldwide.

Dominic Bowen [00:00:34]: Hi, welcome to the International Risk Podcast. I’m your host, Dominic Bowen. Today, we’re focusing on the Sahel, where three junta-led states have exited ECOWAS and formed the Alliance of Sahel States. This is happening as jihadist violence spreads, food insecurity worsens, and governance challenges grow. We’ll discuss these risks and explore potential levers that might help.

We’re joined by Dr. Jessica Moody, a Western Central Africa political risk and peacebuilding specialist. Dr. Moody, welcome to the International Risk Podcast.

Dr. Jessica Moody [00:01:00]: Thanks for having me.

Dominic Bowen [00:01:03]: In January 2025, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger formally left ECOWAS and deepened their own security cooperation while breaking from trade, migration, and joint security mechanisms with other West African nations. Looking at this over the past ten months, what are the new operational and geopolitical risks for governments and companies interested in West Africa?

Dr. Jessica Moody [00:01:30]: It’s a complex situation. The withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from ECOWAS has been a double-edged sword. On one hand, these countries felt the regional grouping was too Western-focused, with excessive backing from France. On the other hand, leaving ECOWAS has prompted them to collaborate in ways we haven’t seen before. Historically, mistrust between Sahel countries prevented unified efforts against jihadist violence.

Now, with their new alliance, they’ve been more inclined to work together. Recently, they launched a unified force to tackle jihadist violence across the region. That’s potentially positive, though the effectiveness remains to be seen—previous attempts at similar mechanisms have often failed.

However, leaving ECOWAS has also created instability. ECOWAS had historically provided relative stability and effective regional mechanisms. Its absence caused disputes between Sahel and coastal states, negatively affecting trade, freedom of movement, and security—especially in Nigeria, Benin, and Togo. Coordinating efforts to counter jihadist violence has become more complicated as a result.

Dominic Bowen [00:02:58]: It’s interesting because, while increased cooperation among historically mistrustful states is positive, understanding the root causes is crucial. On the humanitarian side, there are about 28.7 million people in the Sahel needing life-saving assistance. The UN reports around 4 million displaced in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. The World Food Program predicts 52 million people across West and Central Africa could be food insecure during the 2025 lean season. These numbers are staggering. What concerns you most in the Sahel today?

Dr. Jessica Moody [00:04:00]: Two major issues stand out. First, the political situation is unstable due to a series of coups in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali. These have brought populist governments to power, welcomed by many populations but determined to push out Western assistance from France, the US, and the UN.

Second, the security situation is deteriorating. Groups like JNIM (an Al-Qaeda offshoot) and the Islamic State Sahel Province are expanding southward. In Mali, jihadists have spread from northern and central strongholds toward Bamako, the mining-heavy western region, which is critical to Mali’s economy. This intertwines political instability and security threats, potentially destabilizing governments further.

The further jihadist groups advance toward capitals, the weaker regimes become, raising the likelihood of additional coups and threatening coastal states like Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, and Nigeria.

Dominic Bowen [00:06:20]: You mentioned rising populist governments and the reduction of Western involvement. Some skeptics would argue this serves Russian interests, especially given Mali’s mining resources. Combined with the insurgencies’ adaptability and Russian-linked forces like Wagner (now Africa Core), there’s a heightened risk to civilians. How does this ecosystem of state, non-state, and foreign security actors affect civilians?

Dr. Jessica Moody [00:07:00]: The main change is that Wagner and Russian support have shifted the strategy of Sahel governments. Previously, with French and US assistance, the focus was partly on protecting southern cities and engaging in development programs. Now, the priority is regime survival, not long-term stability. Wagner primarily aims to maintain the regime in power, which leads to significant human rights abuses and civilian casualties—sometimes comparable to jihadist attacks.

The result is that states are increasingly retreating, focusing on controlling capitals, while the rest of the country experiences growing insecurity.

Dominic Bowen [00:09:20]: Bamako, Mali’s capital, faces fuel blockades imposed by Al-Qaeda-linked insurgents, severely disrupting commerce, daily life, and government operations. Insurgents are extending influence into rural areas, sometimes forming shadow governments. With Bamako’s population of three million, what would its fall mean for regional stability?

Dr. Jessica Moody [00:10:00]: It would be catastrophic. Bamako is culturally significant, relaxed, and historically stable. Its fall would symbolize jihadists’ march south toward coastal states, signaling a warning to Niger and Burkina Faso. For JNIM, it would be a symbolic victory.

However, a total seizure is moderately unlikely. ECOWAS, neighboring countries, and Western powers might intervene, and Wagner or Africa Core would likely attempt to maintain some stability.

Dominic Bowen [00:11:40]: With Western allies pushed out, how can local governments counter the influence of private military companies while addressing jihadist violence and supporting governance?

Dr. Jessica Moody [00:12:00]: It’s nearly impossible. These regimes have become dependent on Russian assistance; removing it could cause governments to collapse, worsening the jihadist threat. Regional governments like Ghana and Senegal are trying bilateral engagement to assist Sahel countries, but any effort to remove Russian influence risks being seen as neo-colonial and contrary to local desires.

Dominic Bowen [00:14:00]: Regarding Russian support, some argue that these military regimes were influenced by Moscow, while others suggest local populations supported it. Which came first?

Dr. Jessica Moody [00:15:00]: Both existed. There is historical anti-French sentiment in the Sahel. Local populations resented ongoing French influence, so when Russia offered an alternative, it was welcomed. Russian propaganda capitalized on this sentiment, but it didn’t create it from scratch.

Dominic Bowen [00:16:40]: Are current military regimes transitional, or likely to remain in power? Can they gain legitimacy domestically and internationally?

Dr. Jessica Moody [00:17:00]: They’re likely to remain in power barring another coup. They’re authoritarian, but many local populations support them for asserting sovereignty. Legitimacy is challenged when jihadist attacks approach capitals, undermining confidence in government security strategies, as seen with the recent kidnapping in Niamey near the presidential palace.

Dominic Bowen [00:19:30]: For international listeners, why are groups like JNIM and ISIS in the Sahel so successful in recruitment?

Dr. Jessica Moody [00:20:00]: Recruitment is rarely ideological. People join due to fear, marginalization, and lack of opportunities. For example, the Peul ethnic group, traditionally nomadic herders, are stigmatized and unfairly treated by the state. Jihadist groups promise protection, making recruitment easier. Inter-communal tensions, climate-related resource scarcity, and poverty exacerbate the problem. Coercion is also used: refusal can mean death.

Dominic Bowen [00:23:00]: These recruitment strategies are similar to those seen in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yemen. Are there successful initiatives—technological or strategic—countering jihadist influence?

Dr. Jessica Moody [00:24:00]: Unfortunately, no. While drones have been acquired, they’re poorly used, causing civilian casualties. Governments often lack strategic sophistication, while jihadist groups are increasingly adept. Some government strategies, like forced conscription, are poorly thought through and ineffective.

Dominic Bowen [00:25:40]: For political advisors and business leaders, what’s your outlook for the Sahel over the next 12–24 months?

Dr. Jessica Moody [00:26:00]: The outlook is bleak. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger face worsening security. Further coups are possible, especially if capitals like Bamako face sustained attacks or collapse due to supply disruptions. Unless the Alliance of Sahel States or regional powers intervene effectively, significant change is unlikely. Rumors of US reengagement could help counter Russia, but jihadist groups are sophisticated and aware of the security vacuum.

Dominic Bowen [00:28:00]: What’s the US strategic interest in the Sahel beyond countering Russian influence?

Dr. Jessica Moody [00:28:20]: Primarily resource access—gold, lithium, copper—and potential climate-change-related projects. Beyond that, there’s no major strategic imperative.

Dominic Bowen [00:29:20]: More broadly, what international risks concern you most?

Dr. Jessica Moody [00:29:30]: West Africa’s crises have been overlooked. The Sahel has been a proxy battleground for Russia and the West since 2012, impacting migration, resources, and markets. Expansion of jihadist groups and mass displacement affect Europe and beyond. Competition for resources between Russia, China, the US, and Europe will continue.

Dominic Bowen [00:31:00]: Thank you, Dr. Moody, for joining the International Risk Podcast today.

Dr. Jessica Moody [00:31:10]: You’re welcome. Thanks for having me.

Dominic Bowen [00:31:15]: That was Dr. Jessica Moody, political risk, due diligence, and peacebuilding consultant in West Africa, discussing the Sahel’s security and political situation.

Visit the International Risk Podcast website to subscribe to our biweekly newsletter. Today’s episode was produced and coordinated by Elisa Garbil. I’m Dominic Bowen. Thanks for listening.

Elisa Garbil [00:32:00]: Thank you for listening to this episode of the International Risk Podcast. For more episodes and articles, visit internationalriskpodcast.com. Follow us on LinkedIn, Blue Sky, and Instagram to ask questions of our host, Dominic Bowen. See you next time.