Russia’s growing influence in the East and the ongoing war in Ukraine

As is known, on the 24^th of February 2022, the Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an invasion into Ukraine. It has been over two years and seven months, and there seems to be no sight of the end of the war. Putin seems to be unwilling to negotiate, and it seems that the war has entered a new stage with Ukraine entering/invading Russia. In October, Ukraine has been accused by the Kremlin to ‘play with fire’ as Ukraine allegedly attacked Kursk nuclear power plant. This is after Ukraine entered the Kursk region in a surprise cross-border incursion on the 6ht of August. 

On the 29th of November 2024, Putin’s forces lost a record of 2.000 casualties. In addition, there have been more than 300 weapons and military equipment which have been destroyed in the past 24 hours. The war has been upscaled since the re-election of Donald Trump, which can be seen in the increase in combat clashes in the past few weeks since the election. Russia has been progressing in the Donbas region the quickest, thanks to its North Korean ally. Moreover, Russia has continues to launch strategic attacks in Pokrovsk and Kurakhove,m which are key strategic hubs, while also stepping up its aerial attacks. Ukraine, in response, has received permission to use long-range weapons, and its long-range missiles have hit targets inside Russia. Upscaling the violence and retaliation on both sides seems to have been key the past few weeks.

With the new head of NATO, Mark Rutte, being appointed as Chief, there will be changes in how NATO will react to Zelensky’s requests. Moreover, with the US choosing to re-elect Trump, leads to speculation that the way the US views Ukraine, and general help Ukraine has been given, might dwindle down soon, leading to another phase in the war. In addition, Trump has stated that part of his 100 days in office, he would stop the war, hinting at giving Russia a win, which would be devastating for Ukraine. There have been statements that Ukraine needs to prepare for the upcoming winter months and consider guerrilla tactics in order to win the war, especially because there are no signs of Russia willing to discuss peace or a negotiated deal.

In addition, there have been accounts of Russia meddling in the Georgian, Moldovan, and US elections, by spreading misinformation, disinformation, and fake news. We have discussed the weaponisation of social media by Russia, and how Russia exploits digital platforms to fuel unrest in the West. In short, Russia has very organised ‘armies’, leading disinformation campaigns. As Sander van der Linden has discussed in episode 182, the more you hear something the more you think it is true, even if there is no real proof or even if it is completely false. In addition, the far-right is gaining more and more ground, as discussed here. These extremist groups, which we discussed in episode 177 with Roger Burrows, tend to spread disinformation, often spread by Russia’s disinformation campaign in the first place. More and more people seem to agree, look at the US election Trump – a convicted extremist felon. The election of Trump will lead to many geopolitical security risks, as discussed in episode 179 with David Dunn.

Would you like to hear more about the conflict in Ukraine? Listen here to our episode with Stefan Wolff.