Baltic Sea sabotage: “Russian shadow fleet” ship suspected of cutting undersea cable

Recent incidents involving undersea cables in the Baltic Sea have raised concerns about the security of critical infrastructure in the region. Multiple disruptions to power and telecommunication cables have occurred, prompting investigations and increased vigilance from Baltic nations and NATO allies.

December 2024 Incident in the Baltic Sea

On 25 December 2024, the EstLink2 power cable connecting Finland and Estonia experienced an outage. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced on social media that the electricity transmission connection had been disconnected that afternoon. Fingrid, Finland’s energy supply operator, reported that the fault was located within the cable itself. The disruption did not immediately mpact electricity supplies in Finland, and there was sufficient capacity to meet electricity needs in Estonia.

This incident underscores the strategic vulnerability of critical infrastructure in the Baltic region, with significant implications for companies operating in Northern Europe. Power cables like EstLink2 and telecommunications lines are essential for maintaining uninterrupted operations in industries dependent on high-speed data and reliable energy supplies. Disruptions can lead to operational downtime, increased costs, and weakened supply chain efficiency, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing, logistics, and financial services. Furthermore, the heightened risk of hybrid warfare requires businesses to proactively assess their reliance on such infrastructure and invest in both redundancy measures and robust business continuity planning. Preparing for potential crises and ensuring adaptability in the face of geopolitical tensions are now essential for companies to safeguard their operations in this increasingly volatile environment.

Investigation into the Undersea Cable Attack

Finnish authorities launched a criminal investigation into the incident, focusing on a Russia-linked vessel suspected of involvement in the cable damage. The ship, identified as the Eagle S, was seized by Finnish authorities on 28 December 2024.  The incident bears similarities to previous cases of undersea infrastructure damage in the Baltic Sea. Some reports suggested that more than one cable may have been affected in this latest occurrence. Additionally, four telecommunications cables reportedly experienced disruptions, including three linking Finland and Estonia, and one connecting Finland and Germany.

November 2024 Baltic Incidents

Prior to the December event, two submarine telecommunication cables were disrupted in the Baltic Sea on 17-18 November 2024. The affected cables were:

• BCS East-West Interlink (connecting Lithuania and Sweden)
• C-Lion1 fibre-optic cable (connecting Finland and Germany)

These incidents occurred in close proximity to each other and almost simultaneously, raising suspicions of potential sabotage or hybrid warfare. The damage to the BCS East-West Interlink cable was described as “full damage” by an Arelion spokesperson, and it had provided about one-third of Lithuania’s internet capacity.

The Chinese cargo ship Yi Peng 3 came under scrutiny due to its presence above the cables at the time of the incidents, and the loss of its anchor at the same time. Western intelligence officials suspected that the ship’s anchor likely caused the damage under the influence of Russian intelligence.  On 19 November, the Royal Danish Navy observed the Yi Peng 3 in the Baltic Sea. The detention of this vessel marked the first enforcement action under the Convention for the Protection of Submarine Telegraph Cables since the Transatlantic cables incident of 1959.

Baltic Sea cable damage: Finland seizes Russian ship suspected of sabotage

These incidents have occurred against the backdrop of heightened tensions in the region following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and more recently in February 2022. The Baltic Sea has witnessed several high-profile infrastructure incidents since then, leading to increased vigilance and concerns about potential sabotage attempts. The cutting of undersea cables has prompted warnings of “sabotage” and hybrid warfare aimed at vital infrastructure across Europe. These cables are essential for international internet connectivity and play a crucial role in global communications.

NATO and International Response to Hybrid Attacks in the Baltics

In response to these incidents, NATO has announced plans to enhance its military presence in the Baltic Sea. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated that the alliance would step up patrols in the area as investigations continue. The United States has pledged assistance with the inquiry into the December 2024 incident. A spokesperson from the US National Security Council emphasized close coordination with allies to support the investigations into the Baltic Sea infrastructure attacks.

NATO’s response reflects a shift toward addressing hybrid warfare by enhancing patrols and exploring advanced surveillance measures like underwater drones and AI-driven monitoring systems. While these efforts are critical, they are not enough to fully mitigate the risks. Business leaders must take proactive steps to ensure operational continuity amidst escalating tensions. This includes strengthening redundancies, stress-testing crisis management plans, and building confidence in their ability to adapt to ongoing disruptions in the region’s critical infrastructure.

Impact on Regional Security in the Baltics and northern Europe

The repeated incidents involving undersea infrastructure have put Baltic nations on high alert.  Countries in the region, including Sweden, Finland, Germany, and Estonia are increasingly concerned about the vulnerability of their critical infrastructure and the potential for further acts of sabotage.

These events have highlighted the strategic importance of undersea cables and pipelines in the Baltic Sea. The region’s reliance on these infrastructure elements for power transmission and data communication underscores the need for enhanced security measures and international cooperation.

The Baltic Sea has been the site of several notable infrastructure incidents in recent years. The Finnish-Estonian undersea gas pipeline, known as the Baltic connector, suffered damage in early October 2023, raising concerns about potential sabotage in the Baltic region. The Baltic connector pipeline was shut down on October 8, 2023, after a sudden drop in pressure. Finnish authorities reported that the pipeline and a telecommunications cable had been damaged in two separate locations within Finland’s Exclusive Economic Zone. The attacked was said by authorities to be deliberate sabotage, possibly linked to Russia as “retribution” for Finland joining NATO in April 2023.

The investigation focused on a Chinese ship named NewNew Polar Bear, which had passed over the pipeline around the time of the damage after leaving the Russia enclave of Kaliningrad and picking up a Russian crew. Finnish authorities confirmed that this vessel was missing an anchor, but repeated attempts to contact the ship were unsuccessful. The incident caused European gas prices to jump, with UK prices increasing by up to 13.5 percent in the immediate aftermath. In August 2024, China acknowledged that the Chinese-owned cargo ship NewNew Polar Bear was responsible for damaging the Baltic connector gas pipeline. These events, along with the more recent cable disruptions, have contributed to a growing sense of unease about the security of critical infrastructure in the Baltic region.

Technological and Economic Implications of Hybrid Warfare

The damage to undersea cables can have significant technological and economic consequences. The BCS East-West Interlink cable provided approximately one-third of Lithuania’s internet capacity. The C-Lion1 cable is the sole direct link of its kind between Finland and Central Europe.  Disruptions to these cables can impact data traffic, internet connectivity, and power transmission across multiple countries. While alternative routes and redundancies exist, the incidents highlight the vulnerability of these critical systems.

What Next in the Baltic: Future Implications and Preparedness

The recurring incidents in the Baltic Sea underscore the need for enhanced monitoring and surveillance of both critical infrastructure and Russian and Chinese ships transiting the busy waters.

The recent Baltic Sea cable incidents have brought to the forefront the vulnerability of critical undersea infrastructure. As investigations continue and Baltic nations bolster their defenses, the events serve as a reminder of the complex interplay between technology, geopolitics, and national security in the modern era. The Baltic region, with its strategic importance and history of tensions, remains a focal point for these concerns, necessitating ongoing vigilance and international cooperation to safeguard essential communication and power networks.

If Russia were to bomb a NATO member’s energy grid, it would likely be considered an act of war and trigger Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. This would have severe implications and all NATO members would be obligated to come to the aid of the attacked country. NATO could initiate a coordinated military response against Russia, potentially leading to a wider conflict. Severe economic sanctions would likely be imposed on Russia by NATO members and their allies. And in this scenario, it would lead to a major diplomatic crisis, with potential global repercussions. However, in the real-world incidents that have occurred, deliberate damage of state infrastructure, by another state, is an act of warfare.

NATO has recognized the need to protect critical undersea infrastructure, including energy supplies. However, the Baltic Sea cable incidents underscore the fragility of critical infrastructure in the face of hybrid warfare and geopolitical tensions. As nations grapple with these challenges, a comprehensive approach combining technological innovation, international cooperation, and robust legal frameworks will be essential to protect the lifelines of global communication and energy transmission.

The stakes are high, not only for the Baltic region but also for the global community, as undersea infrastructure forms the backbone of modern economies and societies. The time to act is now, as the threats to these vital systems grow more sophisticated and pervasive. By prioritizing resilience and vigilance, nations can ensure the security and stability of these critical assets in an increasingly uncertain world.

For business leaders, these incidents emphasize the need to prioritize redundancy and business continuity planning to mitigate the impact of potential disruptions and geopolitical risks in 2025. Companies must evaluate their reliance on critical infrastructure, invest in backup systems, and ensure alternative pathways for communication and operations. Running regular crisis management scenarios is essential to prepare for unexpected events and to stress-test the organisation’s ability to respond effectively under pressure. Additionally, employing top-tier risk and geopolitical and strategic advisors is vital to gaining a nuanced understanding of emerging threats and their potential impact on business operations. By proactively addressing these areas, leaders can build resilience and position their organisations to thrive amidst uncertainty.

Watch more analysis from our host Dominic Bowen on YouTube here.