Global Risk Landscape in November 2025

Strategic Overview of the International Risk Landscape

The world is experiencing heightened geopolitical instability, international risk, and shifting alliances. Major conflicts from Russia’s war in Ukraine to turmoil in the Middle East that are reshaping global power dynamics and straining international security. Rivalries between great powers have intensified, with authoritarian states like Russia, China, and Iran increasingly collaborating to challenge the rules-based world order. This era of confrontation brings unpredictable realignments; for example, NATO’s expansion and Asian-Pacific tensions (e.g. around Taiwan) create new fault lines. State and non-state threats alike are proliferating. Traditional state adversaries are using hybrid tactics, such as cyber espionage, economic coercion, and proxy forces, to destabilize rivals without open war. At the same time, non-state actors including terrorist networks and transnational militant groups continue to exploit fragile regions and ungoverned spaces, posing diffuse security risks across borders.

“We are no longer dealing with isolated crises; we are dealing with a system under stress. The real risk for governments and businesses isn’t turbulence itself, but the illusion that yesterday’s assumptions will hold in a world that’s shifted.”

Dominic Bowen, Host of The International Risk Podcast

Cyber and technological risks form a critical part of today’s threat landscape. State-sponsored hackers and criminal syndicates are conducting aggressive cyber espionage campaigns against governments and critical infrastructure. Western security agencies warn that Chinese and Russian cyber operations have surged, targeting everything from diplomatic communications to election systems. The rapid adoption of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, while offering benefits, also introduces new vulnerabilities – malicious actors could manipulate AI systems or use them for sophisticated cyberattacks. Without robust safeguards, critical data and networks face higher risks of breach, disruption, or sabotage. Moreover, misinformation and disinformation have been identified as severe global risks, eroding trust in institutions and inflaming social divisions. Both foreign adversaries and extremist groups are leveraging false information at scale to influence populations. In fact, a recent global risk survey ranked “misinformation and disinformation” as the single most severe two-year risk, warning it could fuel unrest ranging from violent protests to even terrorism.

Meanwhile, transnational organised crime has grown more complex and globally networked. Criminal syndicates exploit globalization, digital tools, and corruption to expand their reach across borders. In Europe, law enforcement reports that over 70 percent of known criminal networks engage in corruption to facilitate their activities, and nearly as many resort to violence and intimidation. Illicit trade in narcotics, human trafficking, and financial crime are thriving multi-billion euro enterprises that both fund and fuel instability. For example, record cocaine flows from Latin America into Europe have driven brutal gang wars in EU cities. These networks do not hesitate to infiltrate institutions or exploit legal loopholes. Europol warns that organised crime is one of the biggest threats to society, entangling itself with businesses and government through bribery and coercion, and most commonly through insider employees becoming compromised. The global risk environment is defined by volatility and complexity, a convergence of geopolitical strife, cyber and informational threats, and criminal enterprises operating without regard for national boundaries. This calls for unprecedented agility and foresight in managing international risks.

Our host Dominic Bowen and our guests including Susannah Streeter, John Sitilides, and Dr Ludmila Bogdan, have helped us make sense of a world that’s becoming harder to read and more consequential to misunderstand. Susannah Streeter has unpacked the financial undercurrents shaping markets and corporate behaviour; John Sitilides has broken down the geopolitical rivalries reshaping alliances and rewriting the strategic map; and Dr. Ludmila Bogdan has illuminated how health, societal resilience, and human behaviour intersect with global stability. Together they have pushed us to look past headlines and examine the real drivers of volatility and international risk, whether that’s the weaponisation of technology, the fragmentation of the information ecosystem, the strain on global supply chains, or the rise of transnational criminal networks. Their insights remind us why a clear-eyed view of risk is now a leadership imperative, and why informed, nuanced dialogue matters more than ever.

Sources:

1. Mikael Tofvesson (Swedish Psychological Defence Agency) interview – Russia’s disinformation targeting Sweden’s migration and societal tensions.
2. Al Jazeera – Iraq expels Sweden ambassador, embassy stormed over Quran burning (July 20, 2023) – details of the attack on Swedish Embassy in Baghdad and evacuation of staff.
3. Government Offices of Sweden – Statement by PM Kristersson on raised terror threat (Aug 21, 2023) – Sweden now a “prioritised target” for terrorist attacks; threats to Swedish interests abroad.
4. The Guardian – Brussels attack suspect killed by police after killing of Swedish fans (Oct 17, 2023) – Swedish PM confirms terror attack deliberately targeted Swedes.
5. Reuters – Sweden to evacuate embassy staff from Sudan (Apr 21, 2023) – Swedish government coordinated evacuation of Khartoum embassy during conflict.
6. Al Jazeera – Sudanese visa applicants trapped after diplomats evacuated (Apr 29, 2023) – Swedish embassy in Khartoum suspended services and fled, leaving local visa applicants without passports[.
7. Swedish NAO Report (RiR 2018:13) – Protection against fraud in migration activities at missions abroad – notes bribes for residence permits and visa fraud cases in Swedish missions.
8. Associated Press – Europol: Gangs infiltrating legal world, 70% use corruption (Europol report April 2024) – organized crime threats in Europe.
9. Säkerhetspolisen (Swedish Security Service) Annual Assessment 2024/25 – Foreign conflicts (Ukraine, Middle East) heightening threats to Sweden; Russia, China, Iran hostile activities.
10. 2Secure Insight – Preparing for Business Risks 2025 (Dec 2024) – importance of advanced risk monitoring and agility amid volatile global landscape.
11.  Global Risks Report 2024 | World Economic Forum | World Economic Forum https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2024/digest/
12. International conflicts create threats in Sweden – Säkerhetspolisen https://www.sapo.se/ovriga-sidor/other-languages/english-engelska/press-room/swedish-security-services-annual-assesments/the-security-service-2024-25/international-conflicts-create-threats-in-sweden.html
13. Cases of suspected Chinese espionage in Europe | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/cases-suspected-chinese-espionage-europe-2024-04-23/
14. Preparing For Business Risks 2025 – 2Secure https://2secure.se/preparing-for-preparing-for-business-risks-2025/
15. Menace to society: Criminal gangs in Europe are infiltrating the legal world, Europol says | AP News https://apnews.com/article/europe-organized-crime-corruption-drugs-19d82e725225189a9801dd3dc495bf25
16. British embassy guard who spied for Russia jailed for 13 years | News https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/17/british-guard-david-smith-jailed-13-years-spying-for-russia-at-uk-embassy-in-berlin and https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/17/british-embassy-guard-jailed-for-spying-for-moscow
17. Sweden joins European nations in expelling Russian diplomats | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-expel-three-russian-diplomats-foreign-minister-says-2022-04-05/
18. Sweden: Transnational Repression Host Country Case Study | Freedom House https://freedomhouse.org/report/transnational-repression/sweden
19. Posted embassy staff, their families and a number of Swedes evacuated from Sudan – Government.se https://www.government.se/press-releases/2023/04/posted-embassy-staff-their-families-and-a-number-of-swedes-evacuated-from-sudan/
20. Swedish Security Service raises terror threat level – Government.se https://www.government.se/articles/2023/08/swedish-security-service-raises-terror-threat-level/