Democracy Under Siege: Lessons from Iraq and Global Electoral Integrity

As the Middle East navigates a year marked by upheaval—Syria’s post-Assad transition and Israel’s escalated conflict with Lebanon—another critical narrative unfolds with quieter urgency. Iraq, a nation of immense geopolitical importance, approaches its 2025 elections amid complex challenges that mirror broader global threats to democracy. Iraq’s precarious experiment with democracy, its lessons for post-conflict governance, and parallels with the global rise of far-right populism offer crucial insights into the vulnerabilities of democratic systems worldwide.

Iraq’s Democratic Struggle: Corruption and Disillusionment

Two decades after the U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein, Iraq’s democracy remains fragile. Corruption entrenched in state institutions continues to erode public trust. Scandals like the theft of over $2.5 billion in the ‘Heist of the Century’ underscore the deep structural challenges undermining governance and deterring foreign investment. Compounding this, Iraq’s reliance on oil revenues disconnects citizens from public finances, reducing political accountability.

The 2019 Tishrin Movement, driven by widespread protests against corruption and inadequate governance, led to reforms in Iraq’s electoral system with the introduction of the Single Non-Transferable Vote (SNTV) system intended to simplify the process and enhance voter-representative connections. Independent candidates gained notable ground in 2021 elections, challenging the dominance of traditional political parties. However, systemic corruption and low voter turnout persisted, whilst new problems of significant voter wastage saw parties with many votes win far less seats than their opposition. The 2021 elections recorded the lowest participation since 2003, reflecting public disillusionment with a political process perceived as futile.

Risk to Middle Eastern Political Stability

Amidst a hugely unstable Middle Eastern geopolitical climate, Iraq’s 2025 elections could have an impact reaching far beyond its own domestic politics. A significant portion of Iraq’s most influential political actors are the pro-Iranian Coalition Framework, who gained significant victories in the 2023 provincial elections. With them well positioned to make significant headway in the 2025 national elections, Iran may well seek greater direct influence over Iraqi affairs on account of its heavy setbacks induced by Israel’s victories over Hezbollah and Assad’s overthrow in Syria. As such, the 2025 Iraqi elections could greatly affect the stability of the Middle East, and thus present a significant international risk factor.

Lessons from Iraq for Post-Assad Syria

Iraq’s journey offers stark lessons for Syria as it attempts a democratic transition. Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Syria faces the daunting task of nation-building in a fragmented society. Iraq’s struggles highlight the importance of creating inclusive governance structures and addressing the root causes of political instability. Key priorities for Syria include drafting a social contract that unites its diverse population and adopting an inclusive constitution that guarantees minority rights. Transparent electoral systems and proportional representation will be critical in fostering trust and ensuring legitimacy. However, as Iraq’s experience shows, without mechanisms to combat corruption and promote civic engagement, these reforms risk being undermined. For a better understanding of the political and institutional problems facing Syria, tune into The International Risk Podcast episodes 189, with Joseph Daher, and 190, with Zaki Mehchy.

The Global Rise of the Far Right

While Iraq’s challenges are rooted in its unique history, its struggles with disinformation, voter suppression, and corruption resonate with trends in established democracies. Across Europe, far-right populism is reshaping political landscapes, as seen in Austria’s Freedom Party and Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD). These movements exploit economic anxieties and cultural divides, undermining democratic norms in the process. Disinformation campaigns, often funded by entrenched elites or external actors, suppress voter engagement by fostering mistrust in elections. Meanwhile, far-right parties challenge judicial independence and media freedoms, eroding essential democratic safeguards. This normalization of populist rhetoric poses risks to international stability, legitimizing authoritarianism and weakening collective responses to global challenges.