Democracy Under Siege: Lessons from Iraq and Global Electoral Integrity

As the Middle East navigates a year marked by upheaval—Syria’s post-Assad transition and Israel’s escalated conflict with Lebanon—another critical narrative unfolds with quieter urgency. Iraq, a nation of immense geopolitical importance, approaches its 2025 elections amid complex challenges that mirror broader global threats to democracy. Iraq’s precarious experiment with democracy, its lessons for post-conflict governance, and parallels with the global rise of far-right populism offer crucial insights into the vulnerabilities of democratic systems worldwide.

Iraq’s Democratic Struggle: Corruption and Disillusionment

Two decades after the U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein, Iraq’s democracy remains fragile. Corruption entrenched in state institutions continues to erode public trust. Scandals like the theft of over $2.5 billion in the ‘Heist of the Century’ underscore the deep structural challenges undermining governance and deterring foreign investment. Compounding this, Iraq’s reliance on oil revenues disconnects citizens from public finances, reducing political accountability.

The 2019 Tishrin Movement, driven by widespread protests against corruption and inadequate governance, led to reforms in Iraq’s electoral system with the introduction of the Single Non-Transferable Vote (SNTV) system intended to simplify the process and enhance voter-representative connections. Independent candidates gained notable ground in 2021 elections, challenging the dominance of traditional political parties. However, systemic corruption and low voter turnout persisted, whilst new problems of significant voter wastage saw parties with many votes win far less seats than their opposition. The 2021 elections recorded the lowest participation since 2003, reflecting public disillusionment with a political process perceived as futile.

Risk to Middle Eastern Political Stability

Amidst a hugely unstable Middle Eastern geopolitical climate, Iraq’s 2025 elections could have an impact reaching far beyond its own domestic politics. A significant portion of Iraq’s most influential political actors are the pro-Iranian Coalition Framework, who gained significant victories in the 2023 provincial elections. With them well positioned to make significant headway in the 2025 national elections, Iran may well seek greater direct influence over Iraqi affairs on account of its heavy setbacks induced by Israel’s victories over Hezbollah and Assad’s overthrow in Syria. As such, the 2025 Iraqi elections could greatly affect the stability of the Middle East, and thus present a significant international risk factor.

Lessons from Iraq for Post-Assad Syria

Iraq’s journey offers stark lessons for Syria as it attempts a democratic transition. Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Syria faces the daunting task of nation-building in a fragmented society. Iraq’s struggles highlight the importance of creating inclusive governance structures and addressing the root causes of political instability. Key priorities for Syria include drafting a social contract that unites its diverse population and adopting an inclusive constitution that guarantees minority rights. Transparent electoral systems and proportional representation will be critical in fostering trust and ensuring legitimacy. However, as Iraq’s experience shows, without mechanisms to combat corruption and promote civic engagement, these reforms risk being undermined. For a better understanding of the political and institutional problems facing Syria, tune into The International Risk Podcast episodes 189, with Joseph Daher, and 190, with Zaki Mehchy.

The Global Rise of the Far Right

While Iraq’s challenges and risks are rooted in its unique history, its struggles with disinformation, voter suppression, and corruption resonate with trends in established democracies. Across Europe, far-right populism is reshaping political landscapes, as seen in Austria’s Freedom Party and Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD). These movements exploit economic anxieties and cultural divides, undermining democratic norms in the process. Disinformation campaigns, often funded by entrenched elites or external actors, suppress voter engagement by fostering mistrust in elections. Meanwhile, far-right parties challenge judicial independence and media freedoms, eroding essential democratic safeguards. This normalization of populist rhetoric poses risks to international stability, legitimizing authoritarianism and weakening collective responses to global challenges.

The International Risks of Democratic Backsliding

Democracy is in decline. The latest Democracy Index from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), released on 27 February 2025, paints a sobering picture: global democracy has reached its lowest level since the index was first published in 2006.

The erosion of democratic governance is not new, but the rate at which it is accelerating raises alarm bells for policymakers, businesses, and civil society alike. The forces driving this decline—rising authoritarianism, growing public disillusionment with democratic institutions, and a surge in populist movements—are reshaping political landscapes around the world. The erosion of democratic governance is not new, but the rate at which it is accelerating raises alarm bells for policymakers, businesses, and civil society alike. The forces driving this decline—rising public disillusionment with democratic institutions and state-sponsored disinformation campaigns from authoritarian regimes—are reshaping political landscapes around the world.

A Year of Elections, A Year of Declining Democracy

On paper, 2024 was a historic year for democratic participation. Around 1.65 billion people cast votes in elections spanning over 70 countries, representing nearly half of the world’s population. But while the sheer number of elections might suggest a strengthening of democracy, the reality was quite the opposite.

Many elections were undermined by fraud, state repression, or outright cancellation. In Pakistan, polling was marred by violence, and former Prime Minister Imran Khan—himself a controversial figure—was jailed just before the vote. The country’s democracy index score fell sharply from 3.25 to 2.84. In Russia, another stage-managed election handed Vladimir Putin his fifth term in office, earning the country a democracy score of just 2.0. Elsewhere, countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali, and Qatar scrapped elections entirely, further entrenching authoritarian rule.

Even in regions where democracy was once seen as stable, cracks have deepened. France, long considered a beacon of European democracy, was downgraded from a “full democracy” to a flawed democracy. President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap election in June backfired, leaving the country without a clear legislative majority. The political paralysis, coupled with frequent changes in leadership—four prime ministers in a year—eroded public confidence in government.

In Romania, democracy suffered another blow as allegations of Russian election interference, illicit social media campaigns, and campaign finance violations led the constitutional court to annul the presidential election and order a revote. In South Korea, an unexpected declaration—then rapid withdrawal—of martial law by President Yoon Suk Yeol caused the country to slip out of the full democracy category altogether.

The Drivers of Democratic Erosion

At the heart of democracy’s decline are two interlinked trends:

1. Rising Public Disillusionment. Voter frustration with democratic institutions is at an all-time high. Many citizens feel that traditional political parties no longer represent their interests, driving a massive anti-incumbent backlash in 2024’s elections. This dissatisfaction fuels political instability and erodes faith in democratic governance.

2. State-Sponsored Disinformation Campaigns. Authoritarian regimes are exploiting digital platforms to spread false narratives, sow division, and manipulate elections in democratic countries. Russia, China, and other authoritarian actors are using coordinated disinformation campaigns to undermine trust in democratic institutions, amplify polarization, and push narratives that benefit their geopolitical interests. Romania’s election annulment due to Russian interference is just one example of how these tactics are directly impacting electoral integrity.

This has resulted in the rise of Political Insurgents and Populists. As trust in mainstream politics collapses, populist leaders and political insurgents are gaining traction. They promise radical change, often attacking democratic norms in the process. Their success is reshaping political systems and, in some cases, threatening democratic institutions outright.

This growing disenchantment is not limited to emerging democracies or authoritarian-leaning states. Even the United States, which has hovered in the “flawed democracy” category for years, remains deeply polarized. The first month of Donald Trump’s second term has already tested the independence of the civil service and seen a flurry of executive orders of questionable legal standing.

As we look ahead to 2025, the critical question is how these newly elected leaders will govern. Will they uphold democratic principles, or will they further erode them in favor of consolidating power? The trajectory of global democracy hinges on whether voter dissatisfaction translates into meaningful reform or deeper political instability. For businesses, investors, and policymakers, the risks are clear:

• Increased political volatility will make regulatory environments more unpredictable.

• Authoritarian-leaning governments will further tighten control, stifling transparency and fair competition.

• Geopolitical tensions and election interference will continue to shape political outcomes in key markets.

Democracy is at an inflection point and the international risks are significant. Whether the trend reverses or accelerates will depend on how leaders, institutions, and societies respond in the coming months.