Instability in the Middle East
A Little History
The conflict between Israel and Lebanon is not new. It started with the Arab-Israeli War in 1948, where Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Transjordan (now Jordan), and Iraq declared war on the newly pronounced, state of Israel, which had declared its independence on the 14th of May 1948. On the 23rd of March 1949 the ceasefire agreements were signed between all the parties. Israel, who had won the war, controlled much more land than what had been allocated under the United Nations Partition Plan, including promised land to the Palestinian Arabs. Importantly, the ceasefire agreement was signed by all parties and understood as armistice agreements, not peace treaties. Which opened up the idea of conflict in the future, as this was not a final resolution.
Many Palestinian Arabs, around 711.000, were forced out of Israel in the first Nakba, which led to many Palestinian Arabs fleeing to Lebanon. Lebanon contains a big Christian demographic, which meant that many of the Palestinian refugees had severe restrictions, think the inability to work for example.
The Palestine Liberation Organisation (hereinafter PLO) has managed to recruit militants in Lebanon from among the Palestinian refugees. In 1968 the PLO began committing terror attacks on Israeli civilians in order to fulfil it wish of a Palestinian state. This in turn led the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) to strike in return. This conflict between the two led to many innocent deaths, including the 1972 Munich Massacre.
In 1975 the Lebanese Civil War occurred, which was a complex conflict with various factions and shifting alliances between Lebanese Maronite Catholics, Lebanese Muslims, Palestinian Muslims, Lebanese Druze, and others. Israel and Syria both supported the Lebanese Maronite Catholics, and in April 1981 the USA brokered a cease-fire in Southern Lebanon among Israel, Syria and the PLO. However, in 1982 the war began again, this time because Israel invaded Lebanon to attack the PLO. The Israeli army laid siege to Beirut, and this conflict led to between 5.000 and 20.000 killed (depending on Lebanese or American sources). The USA feared an escalation of the conflict and managed to get a cease-fire agreement, where the PLO withdrew. When the newly elected president was assassinated in 1982, Israel retaliated and occupied West Beirut. This then led to a peace treaty, solely in name, between Lebanon and Israel in 1983, which led to Israel withdrawing from the region and the Shia and Druze militias to take over much of Beirut. In 1990 the Lebanese Civil War was over, and all militias, except Hezbollah and the South Lebanon Army, were dissolved.
However, the Shua militias then moved on the proclaim themselves as Hezbollah in 1985. During the South Lebanon Conflict, which occurred between 1985 and 2000, the Hezbollah militia waged a guerrilla campaign against the Israeli forces and the SLA occupying Southern Lebanon. Israel funded the SLA, which led to retaliations from Hezbollah. On the 24th of May 2000 Israel decided to withdraw from their side of the UN designated border, named the Blue Line, which lead to Hezbollah taking over many of the SLA’s equipment and positions.
In 2006 the Lebanese war started with the Zar’it-Shtula incident, where Hezbollah initiated diversionary rocket attacks on Israeli military positions near the coast and near the border. Israel responded with massive airstrikes and artillery fire on targets throughout Lebanon, an air and naval blockade, and a ground invasion of Southern Lebanon. The UN brokered the ceasefire on the 14th of August 2006. Many incidents happened over the years.
This leads us to the conflict today. On the 8th of October 2023, Hezbollah launched guided rockets and artillery shells at Israeli-occupied positions in Shebaa Farms during the 2023 Israel-Hamas war. Israel in return retaliated by attacking Hezbollah positions with drone strikes and artillery fire. This is the largest escalation between Hezbollah and Israel since the 2006 Lebanon War.
It is important to mention that neither party is innocent here. Israel has routinely breached Lebanese airspace, waters, and borders since the end of the Civil War in 1990. This is illegal under the UN Security Council Resolution 425 and 1701. These violations are in turn used by Hezbollah to justify and legitimise their continued armed resistance against Israel, and its aim to eliminate the state of Israel.
The Future and Possible Solutions?
Now, in our recent podcast with Joseph Daher, Dominic and Joseph discuss the instability of the Middle East. Daher mentions that the current conflict, as can be seen above, is a violent consequence of history. Importantly, Hezbollah does not want a general war, neither does Iran. A general war would be devastating for Hezbollah as they do not have the same military advancements as Israel. Moreover, Hezbollah does not have the same support as it had in 2006, only 20% of people support Hezbollah. Hezbollah is being held accountable for the way it plunged its country into financial and economic collapse. Moreover, they have used their own weapons against its own actors. This current deep economic crisis also means that a general war with Israel would mean that their political, financial and physical positions would be weakened.
So how do we achieve peace? Peace is extremely difficult to achieve between Palestine and Israel, as the West Bank is currently being further colonised by Israel. Moreover, there is the issue of Apartheid, which is different than in South Africa because Israel has eliminated its need for Palestinians. It has eliminated any economic dependance. There even have been claims to eliminate the vast majority of Palestinians, and to concentrate them in camps and urban areas fully depended on Israel. Lately Netanyahu showed a map without the West-bank proving that the aim is to fully colonise it.
Equal future needs total equality in citizenship.
Joseph Daher
In the case of Syria and Lebanon, there is currently a deep economic crisis ongoing. In addition there have been the highest amount of migrations of people. There is this need for a change of the political class in order to change the government and its approach. Ideally, this change of government should lead to a resurgence of the economy, and hopefully would lead to more young people staying. Currently, the deep economic problems are what lead to the issues and the instability of the countries. Finally, and importantly, China, the USA, the EU, and Russia need to stop meddling in these countries.