Episode 343: Canada’s Defence Dilemma: Sovereignty, NATO, and the U.S. Alliance

In this episode, we host Norman Leach to explore whether Canada is entering a new era in defence policy. Drawing on his background in military history, defence commentary, and international business, Norman examines the deeper strategic questions now facing Ottawa: how sovereign Canadian defence policy really is, how far Canada can afford to depend on the United States, and what a more uncertain relationship with Washington means for Canada’s future security posture. Set against growing concern over Arctic security, renewed debate over defence spending, and wider questions about alliance cohesion, this conversation looks at how Canada is being forced to rethink the balance between dependence, sovereignty, and strategic credibility.

We discuss whether the core problem in Canadian defence policy is underinvestment, overreliance on the United States, or a deeper lack of strategic clarity. We also explore the tension between sovereignty and interdependence through NORAD, the challenge of reducing dependence on U.S. defence procurement without undermining interoperability, and the extent to which Ottawa’s growing focus on the Arctic reflects a genuine strategic shift rather than simply a response to political uncertainty in Washington.

Norman Leach is a Canadian military historian, writer, public speaker, and defence-industry leader whose work spans military history, strategic commentary, and international business. He holds a degree in Political Science and History from the University of Manitoba, has contributed to Canadian Defence Review and other military and historical journals, and has written widely on war, peacekeeping, leadership, and the evolution of Canada’s armed forces.

Alongside his work as a historian and author, Norman has extensive experience in international business, trade, and public policy. Over the course of his career, he has helped establish the Alberta Trade Office in Mexico City, advised provincial cabinet ministers, led major Canadian chambers of commerce, and taught entrepreneurship, marketing, and international trade at institutions including Mount Royal University, SAIT, the University of Manitoba, and the University of Alberta. He has also worked in film and documentary production, serving as historian on Passchendaele (2008) and contributing to documentaries including The Road to Passchendaele (2008), Arctic Manhunt: Hunt for the Mad Trapper (2009), and Hitler’s Stealth Fighter (2009).

The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical instability and organised crime to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you’re a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.

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Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe’s leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe’s leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe’s business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today’s business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.

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Transcript

[00:00:02] Norman Leach: We were very much defined by peacekeeping. We invented it in Egypt in the 1950s, and then we dropped that. We let go of that. We lost what had been our core function, and we have to get back to that. I think the Carney government is moving in that direction. But again, we have an expression: you can’t turn the ocean liner around in the harbour.

[00:00:22] Norman Leach: And I think that’s exactly what we’re trying to do right now: make a big change in a very short time frame.

[00:00:26] Dominic Bowen: Welcome back to the International Risk Podcast, where we discuss the latest world news and significant events that impact businesses and organisations worldwide.

[00:00:31] Dominic Bowen: This episode is brought to you by Conductor. Conductor software helps you design and deliver crisis exercises without needing a big team or weeks of preparation. You can create a central exercise library with Conductor Worlds, and you can generate reports that support your governance and compliance requirements. So, if you want flexible, realistic crisis exercises that are easy to adopt, then Conductor is worth a look.

[00:01:01] Dominic Bowen: And I have a quick favour to ask before we start today. If you’re a regular listener, please subscribe to and follow the International Risk Podcast. It’s the simplest way to support the show, and it helps us reach more listeners who need this content. My commitment to you is that we’ll keep improving every part of the experience, from our guests to the quality of the research and the practical insights we provide. And if there’s a guest you think we should bring on the podcast, or a risk you want unpacked, send it through to us. I promise we read all your comments. Please hit the subscribe or follow button now, and let’s jump into today’s episode.

[00:01:30] Dominic Bowen: For leaders in Europe, the United Kingdom, and North America, Canada has become a really interesting test case for a much bigger strategic problem: how do you stay credible inside NATO whilst reducing dangerous overdependence on the United States? That question now sits at the centre of defence spending, Arctic security, procurement, and even industrial policy.

[00:01:56] Dominic Bowen: I’m Dominic Bowen, and I’m the host of the International Risk Podcast, where we unpack the topics that really matter. My guest today is Norman Leach. He is a military historian, Chair of the Western Canadian Defence Industries Association, and an international business adviser. This is a conversation about more than just Canada. It is about what Western governments, and what serious business leaders, need to learn from a world where alliance structures still matter, but political volatility has shown that previous assumptions can no longer be relied upon. Norman, welcome to the International Risk Podcast.

[00:02:29] Norman Leach: Thank you very much. Happy to be here.

[00:02:31] Dominic Bowen: Norman, you’re travelling at the moment, but whereabouts are you?

[00:02:34] Norman Leach: I’m in Western Canada, right up against the Rocky Mountains. We’re here for a trade show, but I live in the province, just three hours north of here, which in Europe would put you in a whole different country, but in our case it’s just up the road.

[00:02:47] Dominic Bowen: It really is different. I’ve seen those maps where you impose Canada or Australia on top of the rest of the world and realise just how enormous those countries are compared with Europe and others.

[00:02:58] Norman Leach: Second biggest after Russia, so yes, we’ve got a huge landmass.

[00:03:02] Dominic Bowen: Very impressive. And speaking of large landmasses, Norman, you’ve worked across North America, Europe, Asia, and Latin America, and I think that’s especially interesting because we’ve seen so much volatility over the last twelve months: tariffs, export controls, sanctions risk, local content rules, and political pressure shaping who can sell what where, who can source what, and what partnerships become liabilities. From your vantage point as someone advising international businesses, where do you think Western executives are still thinking too narrowly when they consider trade risk? And what are they failing to see coming?

[00:03:40] Norman Leach: I think what they’re failing to see is that I sat at the table when we negotiated the Free Trade Agreement with the United States. I was there, and we heard all the arguments that it was terrible, that we were going to be blended into one, that we would all start thinking the same way, that it would be horrible. We did it anyway. That was in the early 1990s, and now I’m hearing, “Oh my goodness, we’re going to break up into individual countries again, we’ll all have our own opinions.” It’s like a 360-degree circle. We’ve come right back to where we were.

[00:04:01] Norman Leach: I think there will still be alliances. I think the three major blocs are going to be Russia, the United States, and China, and you are going to fall under one of those umbrellas, in much the same way as during the Cold War, when you were either on the Soviet side, the American side, or you were neutral. So I think we are going to see that kind of realignment again, and it will be time to decide which team you’re on.

[00:04:27] Dominic Bowen: That’s a really important point about strategic alignment and strategic resilience. It’s something I speak to companies about a lot. For years, firms came to me worried about links to India, China, or Russia. Now I’m seeing more and more companies worrying about their links to the United States. When businesses talk about resilience or diversification, they often aren’t doing it in a meaningful way. They are still reliant on US customers, US suppliers, US technology, and in many cases US political cover. The language around resilience has changed much faster than most business models. So when you advise companies operating across borders, what does real strategic resilience look like in practice? What really matters when it comes to procurement, partnerships, investment decisions, and market position?

[00:05:29] Norman Leach: What really matters is taking a long-term view. Unfortunately, at least in the North American context, the average president or CEO lasts about three years, and their bonus is based on what they’ve done in that three years. So they focus on a very short window: how do we make money quickly? That is not how you build new trade relationships in Mexico, India, or Jamaica. It takes too long, and from their point of view there is too much risk: what if we spend all this time and money and nothing happens?

[00:06:03] Norman Leach: But the challenge is that nothing happens if we stick to the three-year model either, because we are not reaching out, not building new relationships, and not making the investments we need to make. Until boards of directors allow CEOs to act in the long-term interests of the company, rather than asking only what the bottom line is this month, we are always going to be at a disadvantage compared with countries and organisations that think more strategically. This has been coming for a very long time, but the fractures are now showing.

[00:06:32] Dominic Bowen: I’ve had the benefit over the last two decades of living and working in many major conflict zones and responding to natural disasters, and one of the lessons I have taken from that is that those who move early are generally best positioned. I think it is the same for businesses. There is a real first-mover advantage. So when I look at businesses that understand this shifting landscape, I think most executives hear “geopolitical risk” and immediately think of cost, disruption, regulation, or compliance. But the smartest business leaders also recognise that major shifts create winners. That might be in infrastructure, defence-adjacent industries, critical minerals, logistics, manufacturing, or supply chain services. So when you look at the next five to ten years, where do you see the biggest commercial upside for companies that read this moment correctly?

[00:07:43] Norman Leach: The upside is going to be in applying technology. I think we are at one of those pivot points. If you look at a previous pivot point, like the automobile, people said the same things about cars that they now say about AI. Stable owners were going to go out of business, buggy manufacturers were going to go out of business, people in horse breeding were going to go out of business. But here we are. Did you ride your horse to work today, Dominic?

[00:08:14] Norman Leach: We figured out that there was a whole new industry waiting to emerge. AI is at that same place. We need to work out not just how it can write a better cover letter, but how it can actually make a practical difference. When the automobile was first introduced in North America, they made someone walk in front of the car carrying a red flag to warn horses that a car was coming. That defeated the whole point of having a machine that could go faster and further. And the instinct is always to retreat to what we know, and then later ask why we fell behind. Well, it is the retreat that made you fall behind. So businesses need to ask how AI is actually going to change the fundamentals of what they do, and what it can free people up to do. I would rather have my employees thinking than doing routine tasks.

[00:09:15] Dominic Bowen: That’s a fantastic analogy. People really were afraid of cars and all the possible consequences. And of course there are risks with AI, just as there are risks with cars, but with the right guardrails, training, and understanding, we are very glad to have cars and trucks today.

[00:09:36] Norman Leach: Exactly. Imagine trying to get permission to build an automobile today. You would tell a government regulator: we’re going to give someone training when they are sixteen and then never again, and we’re going to let them launch two tonnes of metal down the road at 100 kilometres an hour while trusting that everyone else will stay out of their way. And, by the way, we are going to fuel it with one of the most explosive materials known to man. What chance would you have of getting a permit? On paper it makes no sense — except that it made all the sense in the world. I think AI is at that same point. We can find everything that is wrong with it and still miss the good that it can do.

[00:10:26] Dominic Bowen: One country that has moved quickly is Canada. If we look at defence, NATO’s 2025 estimates put Canadian defence spending at about 2 per cent of GDP, which is at least moving in the right direction. Canada’s 2026 Arctic foreign policy says that northern security requires deeper collaboration with the United States. But at the same time, Mark Carney said in March that the Northern Defence Plan was framed around enabling Canada to defend the Arctic without the help of allies. So there is still a tension between the language of self-reliance and the reality of alliance dependence. Do you think Canada is moving towards strategic autonomy, or is this really more of an insurance policy against a less predictable United States?

[00:11:26] Norman Leach: I think it’s an insurance policy. We sit on the second-largest landmass in the world after Russia, and if you look over the top of the globe rather than left to right, we are neighbours with both Russia and the United States. We are right in the middle of two superpowers, both with an interest in the North.

[00:11:54] Norman Leach: Canada made a decision in about 1950 that, because of our geography, the United States was never going to abandon us. In a world of buffer zones, we were in the perfect place because the Americans had the biggest military in the world. I often put it this way: Fort Hood, Texas — just one American base — could house the entire Canadian military apparatus and still have room left over.

[00:12:24] Norman Leach: I say that not because I have no stake in the matter. My daughter serves in the Canadian Armed Forces, so I care deeply about what happens. She is an Air Combat Manager, so she is very much at the sharp end. I think Canada will do some things to improve matters, but you do not turn around seventy-five years of neglect between now and the next election cycle. It just cannot happen.

[00:12:49] Dominic Bowen: That makes sense. I served alongside both American and Canadian special forces in Afghanistan, and while their methods were different, both were absolutely brilliant — professional, highly skilled, and deeply committed. When you look at Canada’s defence posture today, what do you see as the core strategic problem? Is it underinvestment, over-reliance on the United States, or perhaps a lack of clarity about what Canada actually needs its military to do?

[00:13:24] Norman Leach: I think Canada was once very much defined by peacekeeping. We invented modern peacekeeping in Egypt in the 1950s. We led the world in it, and then we let it go. That was partly because it is expensive to keep troops overseas. The United Nations pays peacekeepers, but Canada pays its own soldiers more than the UN compensates, so it is a net loss for us.

[00:13:47] Norman Leach: When we dropped peacekeeping, I think we lost our sense of identity. Who were we? What were we meant to do? We have to get back to that sense of purpose. I think the Carney government is moving in that direction, but again, you cannot turn the ocean liner around in the harbour. We are trying to make a big change in a very short space of time, and I think we are ten years away from what we would really like to see.

[00:14:28] Norman Leach: We do not just go out and build a factory overnight and say, “Now we are supplying the military.” So I think there is a real opportunity for Europeans to step in, because Canada needs what Europe already has. A decision has been made not to buy as much from the Americans, so if we are going to buy from someone, Europe is a likely answer. My association is actively recruiting companies to come to Canada and sell. We have agents in England and in Sweden doing exactly that. Canada needs what Europe has, and we want those firms to come. But the reality is that Canada hopes that within ten years it can reduce that dependence too. If you want to bet a bottle of Scotch on that, I would say we will not get there. We simply do not have the population density to do everything ourselves.

[00:15:25] Dominic Bowen: Canada’s defence industry strategy is certainly not modest. It plans to increase the share of defence acquisitions going to Canadian firms, dramatically boost defence-related R&D, raise defence exports, and create thousands of jobs in the sector. But Canada has also been honest that around 70 per cent of its defence procurement still goes to US suppliers and products. That is a significant structural reliance on a country that, at least politically, has been much less predictable. So how realistic is it for Canada to cut that dependency in a meaningful way over the next five to ten years?

[00:17:01] Norman Leach: I do not think we can cut it completely. I think we can move it along the spectrum. We can do better than we have been doing, and my association certainly believes there is real potential here, or we would not be doing this work. But many of these decisions are made internationally, especially when we consider interoperability inside NATO, where everything has to work together.

[00:17:17] Norman Leach: I point out regularly that some people talk about severing ties completely, but you cannot do that. When Canada was involved in the bombing campaign in Libya, the startup units for our CF-18s failed. We walked down the line, borrowed the Spanish ones, and carried on, because they were also flying F-18s. In time of combat, you do not want to be discovering whose ammunition fits which weapon or which components fit which aircraft. Lives are at stake.

[00:18:00] Norman Leach: So yes, it is easy to make political statements about independence or to say that we dislike Trump, but the United States is still the biggest player on the field and we need it on our side. What we will do, though, is find new routes. And I think part of that will go through Europe, through closer work with European manufacturers that help us get to the next stage.

[00:18:26] Dominic Bowen: How worried do you think Canadians should be about long-term reliability with the United States? Security guarantees and alliances with Washington have clearly been shaken under the Trump presidency. Trump has made repeated remarks about Canada becoming a state within the United States. How seriously should Canadians take that?

[00:18:57] Norman Leach: Canadians are generally nice people, so I think many are still trying to work out why the Americans, and why Trump in particular, are doing this. But from the American point of view, they had concerns. Our defence numbers were falling. You mentioned we are getting to 2 per cent, but we are meant to be aiming much higher. We relied on American cover, and I think Trump has shaken Canada awake in a useful way. We now recognise that we cannot simply sit back and wait.

[00:19:27] Norman Leach: I do not think the Americans are ultimately going to walk away from NORAD and the rest. They have too much invested in it. But I also hope that if Trump now says, “Fine, keep your country,” Canadians do not become complacent and think the storm has passed. I hope we have been jolted far enough to stay on this path. That is not a partisan answer. I am not backing one political party over another. I simply believe Canada should stand on its own where it can, partner where it must, and recognise that any partner can walk away if circumstances change.

[00:20:20] Norman Leach: Countries act in their own best interests. One of our former prime ministers, Brian Mulroney, once said that if you do not think personal relationships affect international relations, you do not understand either. Canada needs to get back into the habit of showing up, being seen, and acting in the world. Not as a purely independent voice, but as a real actor that knows the Americans are there and will remain important, while still making its own mark. We have given up too much influence simply by not committing to things. It is good to be nice, but at some point you have to commit.

[00:21:07] Dominic Bowen: Thanks for explaining that, Norman. And I’ll take the opportunity to remind our listeners that if you prefer to watch your podcasts, the International Risk Podcast is available on YouTube. Please do search for it there, subscribe, and if you like our content, share it with a friend. That really does matter.

[00:21:28] Dominic Bowen: Ottawa is talking much more openly and seriously about the Arctic today. I wonder whether the Arctic is forcing some hard conversations about the gap between Canadian rhetoric about sovereignty and Canada’s actual capability to defend its frontiers. What is your impression of Canada’s current ability to defend itself?

[00:22:05] Norman Leach: Not very capable at all. The Canadian Armed Forces will say they are, and politicians will say we are, but we simply are not. If you think about the enormity of the landmass we would have to cover, and the fact that we do not yet have the right equipment for the task, it is obvious that we have let this go.

[00:22:33] Norman Leach: We are building icebreakers, but we do not yet have the heavy-duty icebreakers we would need in the far north. The government has said it will invest 35 billion dollars in defending the North, but we do not have a permanent presence there of the size or shape we would need. That is not to diminish the Rangers. They do remarkable work. They are given a rifle, a snowmobile, and a radio, and their job is to report problems so that the military can react. They have a proud history. But the geography is vast.

[00:23:06] Norman Leach: The last time we war-gamed a United States invasion of Canada was in 1921. Until then, the United States was considered our greatest potential threat. After 1945 we said, “They are our allies,” and moved forward on that basis. We did not war-game an American attack again until about six months ago, when the Canadian Armed Forces ran the scenario. Their conclusion was that by day two the Americans would be where I am now, about 300 kilometres inside the Canadian border.

[00:23:59] Norman Leach: When 80 per cent of Canada’s population lives within 200 miles of the US border, that means most of the population would be in that first wave of exposure. And why does that matter? Because it is analogous to Russia: they have tools and scale we simply do not have. So our relationship will always involve somebody else. I just hope that in the future it is more European and less exclusively American, though it will never be zero American.

[00:24:14] Dominic Bowen: On that point about Europe, Canada’s Arctic policy now explicitly links northern security to closer ties with the five Nordic allies, all of whom are now NATO members. The March 2026 defence announcement also stressed self-reliance through infrastructure upgrades and military support that would let Canada exert more direct control over Arctic security. For European governments, especially in the Nordics and the UK, the Arctic is no longer peripheral. It is becoming a live theatre for sovereignty, logistics, infrastructure, deterrence, and industrial policy. Why do you think Arctic security has become so central today?

[00:24:57] Norman Leach: One reason is that China has said openly that it has an interest in the Arctic, despite having no geographic or cultural ties to it. And when we look at what China has done in the South Pacific, building actual islands to host military facilities, that understandably makes people nervous about what its intentions in the North might be.

[00:25:31] Norman Leach: We have always had friendly rivalries in the North with countries like Denmark and Sweden, but now people are waking up to the fact that the North matters. For years people assumed it was too cold, too remote, too technologically difficult, and so they effectively said, “Canada, you can have it.” Now people are realising that there are going to be trade routes, there are going to be mineral opportunities, and the Arctic has both strategic and economic value. The next ten years are going to be very interesting.

[00:26:04] Dominic Bowen: Based on that, do you think Canada, Europe, and the UK are moving fast enough over the next ten years to defend their interests in the Arctic?

[00:26:15] Norman Leach: Before the recent Iran crisis, I might have said no. But when you look at what the disruption of energy flows does to strategic thinking around the world, countries are being forced to reassess their vulnerabilities. So I think there is a small window we can crawl through and get this done. But everybody has to come to the table with an open mind, and the petty rivalries have to disappear.

[00:26:43] Dominic Bowen: If you were advising the Canadian government today, what are the top three defence decisions you would want it to make?

[00:27:00] Norman Leach: First, build an effective navy. That is happening, but it needs to happen faster. People forget that at the end of the Second World War Canada had the fourth-largest navy in the world, and now we are dramatically below that. Second, create a real foothold in the North with partners, and recognise that the North is a joint strategic interest. Third, support the men and women serving in the Canadian military now: better equipment, better training, better pay. A lot of that is already in the works. I just want to see it executed.

[00:27:34] Norman Leach: The Canadian Armed Forces are dealing with a real brain drain. Serving your country is admirable, but when industry offers two or three times the salary, that is a very powerful incentive. People have families, they want a home, they want stability. Air traffic control is a good example: we are drastically short, and the military has trained people with those skills. If industry pays more, they leave. So we have to solve that. The military has to be seen as a core part of the country, not an afterthought.

[00:28:16] Dominic Bowen: We have tens of thousands of listeners across Europe, many of them senior business leaders and board members. If there were a couple of things you would want them to understand better about Canada and the opportunities there, what would they be?

[00:28:33] Norman Leach: Everybody tends to lump us in with the Americans, but we are more high-context. We want to know the people we are dealing with. We want to meet them, talk to them, and understand them. We are not quite the same as the Americans, who might place a fifty-million-dollar order by email. We want to know who you are and we want you to understand what opportunities exist here.

[00:28:50] Norman Leach: We have a lot of universities doing high-tech research that could be excellent partners, often without some of the restrictions American universities face. We have a well-educated population, one of the best in the world, and one of the youngest populations in the developed world. That matters because those are people who can take on long-term projects and grow with them.

[00:29:28] Norman Leach: The course is changing gradually. If you came today, you might ask what is different from six months ago and not see very much. But if you look six years ahead, the direction we are moving in will be much clearer and much more dramatic.

[00:29:45] Dominic Bowen: One question that we ask all guests on the International Risk Podcast is this: when you look around the world, what are the international risks that concern you the most?

[00:29:54] Norman Leach: Everybody wants to say the war in Iran because it is current and it is in the headlines. But what worries me more is complacency. It terrifies me when I talk to some of my clients and they say they do not watch the news any more because it is all bad news. How do you understand your risks if you do not know what is happening in the world?

[00:30:28] Norman Leach: The world used to be small. The average Canadian once married someone who lived within fifty kilometres because that was the size of their world. Today I have done business in thirty-seven countries. The world is out there, and what happens in Iran affects us too. Fuel prices here have risen sharply because of what is happening in Iran, even though we are one of the largest producers of oil and gas in the world.

[00:30:46] Norman Leach: So complacency worries me: people not seeing what is coming at them. I often say one of my strengths is adding two plus two and coming up with five — seeing something that other people do not see from the same set of facts. I wish more people would step back and look at the bigger picture instead of always staring at the bottom line at the end of the month.

[00:31:10] Dominic Bowen: Norman, I really appreciate that, and I appreciate you coming on the International Risk Podcast today.

[00:31:16] Norman Leach: Thank you very much. I’m glad to be here. It’s been a lot of fun.

[00:31:19] Dominic Bowen: Well, that was a great conversation with Norman Leach on Canada’s defence policy, its relationship with the United States, and the strategic choices Canada now has to make in a very uncertain world. Norman is a defence industry executive and an international business adviser. Today’s podcast was produced and coordinated by Edward Penrose. I’m Dominic Bowen, your host. Thanks very much for listening.

[00:31:40] Dominic Bowen: We’ll speak again in the next couple of days. Thank you for listening to this episode of the International Risk Podcast.

[00:31:48] Dominic Bowen: For more episodes and articles, visit theinternationalriskpodcast.com. Follow us on LinkedIn, Bluesky, and Instagram for the latest updates and to ask your questions to our host, Dominic Bowen. See you next time.