Institutional and Socioeconomic Risks in Syria in a Post-Assad Era

The fall of the Assad regime represents a pivotal moment in Syria’s history, marking the end of over five decades of authoritarian rule and raising significant questions about international governance, geopolitical risks, and the broader stability of the Middle East.This transformative event comes at a time of heightened geopolitical tension, with the region navigating profound instability, Russia seeking to expand its influence, and the incoming Trump administration leaving U.S. policy on Syria uncertain. For the Syrian people, this moment carries a mix of hope and uncertainty—celebrations over the liberation of territories and political prisoners are tempered by the immense challenges of rebuilding a free, inclusive, and resilient society. As Syria stands at the crossroads of change, the interplay of these geopolitical dynamics and the risks they pose to international stability demand global attention. For an in-depth exploration of the latest event in Syria, tune into The International Risk Podcast Episode 189, with Joseph Daher.

In political terms, Syria is embarking on what could be described as a “post-conflict” phase. However, the boundaries between conflict and post-conflict, war and peace, are rarely clear cut. These states often coexist, forming a complex and nonlinear transition. The cessation of open conflict does not mean that all issues are ressolved. The legacy of authoritarian rule and the suffering inflicted by the Assad regime will reverberate for generations. The consequences of decades of systemic violence, repression, and deprivation are not confined to a single moment in time, they will echo across Syria’s future.

At the forefront of these challenges lies the need to rebuild governance institutions and set the country on a new socioeconomic trajectory. Syrians will have to prioritize the restoration of fragmented institutions and rebuild infrastructure across the country, while also addressing the fractured trust among its people. Despite years of hardship, Syrian communities have demonstrated remarkable resilience, and this collective spirit will be essential for the nation’s recovery.

The Institutional Legacy of Assad: Fragmentation and Risk

Before Assad’s fall, Syria’s institutions were deeply fragmented, marked by a rigid, top-down governance model that prioritized power consolidation over public service. In areas beyond the regime’s control, de facto authorities such as the Kurdish-led Self Administration and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) established rival governance structures. These competing systems fostered widespread corruption and profiteering networks that thrived at the expense of ordinary citizens. Public trust in governance plummeted as institutions failed to provide basic services, leaving millions displaced and reliant on informal networks for survival.

This institutional breakdown further exacerbated Syria’s ethnic and sectarian divides, creating significant risks for governance and international stability. The Assad regime used state institutions to project legitimacy, but they were often exploited to serve the interests of elites and profiteers. In non-regime areas, similar patterns of exploitation emerged, with power concentrated in the hands of local actors and profiteering networks. This systemic dysfunction underscores the urgent need for comprehensive institutional reform to address governance deficits and restore public trust.

The Road Ahead: Navigating Risk and Opportunity in Syria

The post-Assad era presents both profound risks and transformative opportunities for Syria. While the collapse of centralized authoritarian control offers a chance to build inclusive institutions, it also risks intensifying fragmentation and competition among regional actors like HTS and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). These factions, while instrumental in Assad’s defeat, bring authoritarian tendencies and sectarian histories that raise concerns about their role in shaping Syria’s future. For more insights on these dynamics and the broader regional instability, Episode 173 with Joseph Daher offers valuable perspectives.

The collapse of centralized authoritarian control presents a dual reality for Syria. On one hand, there is a pressing danger of continued fragmentation and intensified competition among regional actors. On the other, this moment offers an unprecedented opportunity to establish inclusive and accountable institutions that genuinely reflect Syria’s rich ethnic, religious, and cultural diversity. The path Syria chooses will determine whether it can transcend its divisions and lay the foundation for a more stable and equitable future.

Rebuilding Syria’s institutions will require a decentralized governance model that prioritizes participatory planning, transparency, and accountability. Beyond tolerating religious and ethnic minorities, it is crucial to ensure their rights as equal citizens with an active role in shaping the country’s future. Restoring trust in governance will depend on addressing local needs equitably and establishing transparency in all rebuilding efforts, from infrastructure development to judicial reforms. Only by ensuring these foundational principles can Syria prevent the reemergence of corruption and foster a new era of credible governance, as António Guterres, UN Secretary General, expressed.

Driving Economic Revival and Social Cohesion to Minimise Risk

Economically, Syria faces various challenges as it transitions from decades of corrupt state control to a free-market model, a shift the new government has pledged to implement in an effort to integrate the country into the global economy. Reviving industries, creating jobs, and rebuilding critical infrastructure will require a decisive break from reliance on informal markets and profiteering networks that have long dominated the economy. Establishing formal, transparent economic systems rooted in equity will be essential, alongside carefully managed international aid to ensure resources do not fuel new cycles of corruption or empower profiteering elites.

Equally critical to recovery is the need to prioritize social cohesion. Institutions must reflect Syria’s pluralism and offer equitable representation for all communities, fostering a sense of inclusion and shared responsibility. By addressing longstanding divisions and promoting reconciliation, Syria can work toward a shared national vision where every citizen feels ownership in the country’s future and has a stake in its rebuilding process. These efforts will be key to ensuring both economic revitalization and sustainable peace.

Discover the institutional and socioeconomic risks and opportunities ahead for Syria by tuning in to Episode 190, where Zaki Mehchy delves into these critical topics and more.