The CDU’s Return to Power: What’s Next for Germany and European Security?

Author: Camila Mateos Betancourt

Germany held its elections in late February, resulting in a victory for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its leader, Friedrich Merz, who is set to become the next chancellor. The CDU/CSU alliance secured 28.5% of the vote, reclaiming leadership. However, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) made significant gains, securing 20.8%, more than doubling its previous results. While CDU’s win over the far right is reassuring to many, the AfD is no longer a fringe party, it is now Germany’s second-largest political force, firmly embedded in the mainstream.

The CDU is set to begin formal coalition negotiations with the SPD, the party of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz. However, just as Germany grapples with internal political shifts, it faces a geopolitical challenge posed by U.S. President Donald Trump, whose stance on NATO and European defense has raised serious concerns. Trump’s unpredictability regarding security commitments and his push to strengthen ties with Russia come at the expense of NATO solidarity and Ukraine’s sovereignty, forcing Germany and the European Union to reconsider their defense strategies.

As Germany navigates its internal challenges, how will it confront the new geopolitical landscape shaped by shifting U.S. alliances? What does Trump’s foreign policy mean for NATO, Ukraine, and European security?

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Who is Frierdich Merz?

A Politician Caught Between Tradition and Change

Friedrich Merz has long been a staunch advocate for transatlantic cooperation, yet his tone is shifting as Europe grapples with a new era of uncertainty in U.S. foreign policy. With Trump’s erratic stance on NATO, his growing ties to far-right European movements, and his reluctance to support Ukraine, Germany and its allies are facing an uncomfortable reality: they can no longer take American security guarantees for granted. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Merz issued a stark warning: the era of unquestioned U.S.-European alliance is over. His message was clear: Europe must be ready to defend itself. This marks a major turning point, one that forces Germany to view the United States not as an unwavering partner, but as an increasingly unpredictable force alongside traditional rivals like Russia and China.

Merz’s rise to power is the result of a long and winding political career. Once a centrist conservative, he lost a leadership battle to Angela Merkel in 2002 before shifting into the private sector, including a stint at BlackRock. When he returned to politics in 2018, he repositioned the CDU further to the right, hoping to recapture voters drawn to the AfD. His tougher stance on immigration and nationalist rhetoric have fueled criticism, with many accusing him of legitimizing far-right narratives. Now, as he prepares to form a coalition with the center-left SPD, one pressing question remains: Will he follow through on his hardline immigration promises, or will compromise push voters further toward the AfD?

Beyond domestic politics, Merz’s shift toward European strategic autonomy signals a recalibration in Germany’s defense outlook. Discussions on nuclear security cooperation with France and the UK suggest a readiness to explore new options. But does nuclear deterrence truly provide a solution, or is it a desperate attempt to fill the void left by an unreliable U.S.? That question remains unanswered, but it is one Germany can no longer afford to ignore.

Germany stands at a crossroads, both politically and geopolitically. With Friedrich Merz’s leadership, the CDU is reclaiming power, but the far-right AfD’s rise signals a profound shift in the country’s political fabric. Meanwhile, Trump’s unpredictability on NATO and foreign policy is forcing Germany to reconsider its security and diplomatic strategies. Will Germany take bold steps toward European strategic autonomy, or will it struggle to balance transatlantic ties with an increasingly uncertain U.S. partner? The choices made in the coming months will shape not only Germany’s future but also the stability of Europe and NATO itself.